For India and other neighbours – given Madhesh Province’s location along the India-Nepal border and its historically Indo-Nepal stakes – the continuity of governance, infrastructure development and cross-border cooperation will likely hinge on how this new government stabilises or falters.
In a dramatic turn of events early on Monday, Sumitra Subedi Bhandari, the Province Head of Madhesh Province, left Janakpur to Bardibas at around 4 AM, citing health reasons, and administered the oath of office to Saroj Kumar Yadav of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) (CPN-UML) as the new Chief Minister under Article 168(3) of the Constitution of Nepal.
At 5:20 AM, Yadav took the oath at a local hotel in Bardibas, accompanied by ministers without portfolios – CPN-UML lawmaker Lakhan Das Tatma, Nepal Sanghiya Samajbadi Party’s Bimala Ansari, and Rastriya Prajatantra Party’s Kanchan Bichchha.
Bypassing Coalition Route
According to the constitutional provisions, Article 168(2) allows the province head to appoint as Chief Minister a member who can command a majority with the support of two or more parties. Another law, Article 168(3) allows the province head to appoint the parliamentary party leader of the largest party in the assembly if a Chief Minister cannot be appointed under clause (2).
In this instance, the UML held that the government formation should proceed under clause (3) because they were the largest party in the provincial assembly. However, seven other parties – including the Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Centre), Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, Janamat Party and Janata Samajbadi Party – had demanded the invocation of clause (2) to enable a coalition government.
The move by Province Head Bhandari to skip the clause (2) route triggered widespread criticism. Opponents say her sudden early-morning move and departure from Janakpur seemed designed to avoid the standard process of floor negotiations.
Political Tension in Janakpur
The previous government led by Jitendra Prasad Sonal collapsed in just 25 days after failing to secure a vote of confidence. Sonal’s government, formed under Article 168(2) on October 15 with 56 votes, resigned before the scheduled trust vote when multiple partners abstained.
In the run-up to Yadav’s appointment, the federal parties had staged protests outside the Province Head’s office in Janakpur and were reportedly blocked from entering the premises. Tension in Janakpur remained high with alleys of the city turning into flashpoints of protest.
Implications for Governance, Stability
Yadav’s appointment under clause (3) shifts power dynamics sharply in Madhesh Province. The UML’s victory in securing the top job without a broad coalition may trigger further political wrangling ahead of the next confidence vote, which under the constitution must be held within 30 days of appointment.
For India and other neighbours – given Madhesh Province’s location along the India-Nepal border and its historically Indo-Nepal stakes – the continuity of governance, infrastructure development and cross-border cooperation will likely hinge on how this new government stabilises or falters.
For local governance, Yadav must now quickly stitch a workable ministry and secure a majority. The early-morning swearing-in has set a tone of urgency and controversy, and the ability to deliver on governance benchmarks may determine how the electorate views this manoeuvre in the coming weeks.
One Month’s time
Yadav must now face the provincial assembly for a floor test within a month. Meanwhile, the coalition partners who were bypassed under Article 168(2) may regroup and test his majority, possibly leading to fresh instability or even fresh elections if a viable alliance emerges against him. Observers in Kathmandu and New Delhi will be watching closely, as Madhesh Province holds significance for bilateral trade, regional connectivity and a large population with cultural and linguistic links to India.
