Bhutan braces for potential Super El Niño impacts as NCHM warns of risks to agriculture, hydropower, tourism, and heightened GLOF threats amid warmer conditions and variable rainfall.

Bhutan’s National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) has officially confirmed the development of El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about disruptions to the country’s economy and environment. During a press briefing on July 9, 2026, officials highlighted an 85 per cent chance of a “Super El Niño” peaking in the post-monsoon period.

This climate phenomenon, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, influences global weather patterns and could significantly affect the Himalayan kingdom’s vulnerable sectors.

NCHM Outlook and Seasonal Predictions

Pema Syldon from NCHM’s Meteorological Service Division explained that El Niño may particularly impact autumn activities, a critical period for harvesting crops, generating hydropower, and attracting tourists. “If there is lesser rainfall, then these sectors may be affected and relevant departments and sectors must be prepared,” she stated.

The NCHM’s outlook for June to September 2026 predicts monsoon rainfall as normal to slightly below normal, with both maximum and minimum temperatures expected to be above average across the country. The Southwest Summer Monsoon arrived on June 9, 2026, within the normal window, and June rainfall has generally been in the normal range, though with regional variations – above normal in the south and slightly below in some northern and eastern areas.

Ugyen Chophel, another official from the Meteorological Service Division, noted that Bhutan is currently in the active phase of the monsoon. Temperatures are already showing warmer-than-normal trends consistent with El Niño influences.

He said that these conditions are expected to strengthen and persist through the winter of 2026-2027. While El Niño originates far away, it affects Bhutan through changes in atmospheric circulation, interacting with the Southwest Summer Monsoon and the country’s rugged mountainous terrain.

Potential Impacts on Agriculture

Bhutan’s agriculture, which supports a large portion of the population and contributes significantly to food security and rural livelihoods, faces risks from altered rainfall patterns and higher temperatures. Reduced precipitation during the post-monsoon harvest season could lead to lower yields for key crops like rice, maize, and vegetables.

Warmer conditions may also exacerbate pest infestations and crop diseases, while erratic weather could disrupt traditional farming cycles, the experts said. Historical El Niño events have shown variable impacts on South Asian monsoons, with some years bringing deficits that strain irrigation-dependent farming in Bhutan’s valleys.

Experts recommend proactive measures such as improved water management, drought-resistant crop varieties, and enhanced early warning systems for farmers. Government agencies are urged to support these adaptations to safeguard agricultural output.

Hydropower Generation at Risk

Hydropower is the backbone of Bhutan’s economy, providing revenue through exports to India and meeting domestic energy needs. Lower rainfall and stream flows during critical periods could reduce generation capacity, affecting both domestic supply and export earnings.

NCHM officials emphasised preparation for potential energy shortfalls in the post-monsoon and winter seasons. Bhutan’s run-of-the-river hydropower plants are particularly sensitive to seasonal water availability, which El Niño-induced dryness could diminish.

This comes at a time when the country is expanding its renewable energy infrastructure. Diversification strategies and reservoir management will be key to mitigating risks.

Tourism Sector Vulnerabilities

Tourism, another vital economic pillar contributing to Bhutan’s GDP and employment, may see fluctuations due to weather changes. Autumn is a peak season for visitors drawn to Bhutan’s festivals, trekking routes, and natural beauty. Reduced rainfall might improve accessibility in some areas but could also lead to drier landscapes or water shortages affecting hospitality services.

Conversely, extreme events or perceptions of risk could deter tourists. Authorities may need to promote resilient tourism practices and communicate safety measures effectively.

Increased GLOF and Extreme Weather Risks

Director General of NCHM, Karma Dupchu, highlighted heightened risks of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the highlands due to El Niño coinciding with overall warming trends. Glacial lakes, formed by retreating glaciers, are more prone to outbursts under warmer temperatures that accelerate melting.

Past disasters linked to similar conditions include the 2009 flooding from Cyclone Aila, the 2015 Gasa Lemthang Tsho GLOF, and the 2023 Ungar flash flood, which occurred during an El Niño period. While not solely attributable to El Niño, these events underscore the compound risks from climate drivers and local topography.

NCHM stresses that the current outlook is for improved preparedness rather than a specific event warning. Continued monitoring of El Niño and other factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is ongoing. A shift to a positive IOD could bring more winter rainfall and even snowfall in places like Thimphu.

Global Context of Super El Niño 2026

International forecasts align with NCHM’s concerns. NOAA and other agencies indicate a high probability of a strong to very strong El Niño, with some models suggesting it could be among the most powerful on record, potentially with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding 2°C or even approaching 3°C.

Such events are associated with global temperature spikes, droughts in some regions, and increased extreme weather. For the Himalayas, the combination with anthropogenic warming amplifies glacier melt and precipitation variability.

Bhutan is already experiencing climate change effects as one of the most vulnerable countries despite minimal emissions. Experts say that the country must integrate these seasonal forecasts into broader adaptation strategies outlined in its national climate policies.

NCHM officials, including Ugyen Chophel, advise: “While we cannot definitely say that El Niño will affect rainfall and temperature patterns, we must be ready for anything.”