A new UNFPA documentary peels back the realities of life in The Maldives – a nation racing toward super-aged status, where congested Male’ drains the islands and young couples weigh the high cost of starting families against an uncertain demographic future.
In a near-18-minute documentary released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the Maldives confronts a quiet but profound transformation. Tides of Tomorrow does not dwell on abstract statistics alone. It gathers voices from the capital’s crowded apartments, from outer islands growing quieter by the year, and from policymakers and advocates who see the country standing at a demographic crossroads. The film captures the everyday pressures of rising living costs, shrinking family sizes, and a workforce increasingly reliant on foreign labour, even as the nation prepares to become an ageing society in 2026, an aged one by 2045, and a super-aged society by 2052.
The documentary arrives as official projections from the Maldives Bureau of Statistics and UNFPA paint a stark picture. The resident Maldivian population is expected to peak around 428,000 in 2050 before beginning a gradual decline. By 2062 the total resident population could reach about 678,000, with foreigners accounting for nearly two-fifths. Children will form a far smaller share of the population, while those aged 65 and over are projected to rise from roughly 5 per cent in 2022 to nearly one in four. Life expectancy has already climbed dramatically, from the mid-50s in the 1980s to over 80 years today. The result is a rapid inversion of the age structure that few countries have experienced at this speed.
Male’: Opportunity and Overload
At the heart of the story lies the nation’s island capital, Male’. Barely two square kilometres, the capital and its greater urban area house nearly half the country’s people. Here one finds the best schools, hospitals and jobs. Yet the concentration exacts a heavy price. Families squeeze into tiny rented rooms at rates that consume a large portion of combined salaries. Congestion, limited green space and the constant pressure of high living costs shape daily life.
Interviewees in the documentary describe a city that is both, a magnet and a trap. Young people from the atolls arrive seeking education and careers that simply do not exist on their home islands. Once there, many find the cost of housing and everyday expenses leaves little room for marriage or children. One student notes that continuing studies or building a rewarding career feels impossible if one remains in a remote island. The result is a steady outflow that leaves some outer islands resembling ghost towns, their schools and health posts underused while services remain centralised in the capital.
This internal migration pattern is not new, but its scale is intensifying. Projections suggest that by 2062 more than two-thirds of Maldivians may live in the Greater Male’ region. The pressure on housing continues to grow even as successive governments reclaim land and build new islands such as Hulhumalé. Critics warn that poorly planned density risks repeating the capital’s overcrowding problems rather than solving them.
The Quiet Decision to Have Fewer Children
The film turns next to fertility. Not long ago, families of eight or twelve children were common. Mothers stayed home, fathers worked, and extended kin shared the load of childcare. That world has vanished. Today many couples stop at one or two children – or choose none at all. Total fertility sits around 1.7 births per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
Mental health and social advocate Leesh Wisham links the decline directly to economics and living conditions. High rents, small apartments and the need for both partners to work make starting a family feel daunting. “The current economic climate, combined with social issues and housing challenges is likely to reduce the marriage rate and increase the number of people choosing not to have children,” she observes.
Radio presenter Aishath Naeema adds that the cost of health services, education and housing fuels other social strains, including higher divorce rates, which further discourage parenthood.
Former midwife Sameema and fertility advocate Asha Hussain point to broader shifts: women now hold formal jobs, extended family support has weakened, and stressful urban environments, processed foods and limited fresh air may play roles. The documentary captures a generation that weighs the joy of children against the practical burden of raising them in a high-cost, space-constrained city.
An Ageing Nation and a Changing Workforce
UNFPA Maldives Head of Office Shadhiya Ibrahim is blunt about the timeline. In 2026 the Maldives is considered an ageing nation. By 2045 it will be aged; by 2052, super-aged. “This is a very rapid shift in our population,” she says. The working-age share will shrink relative to the growing number of elderly people and the smaller cohort of children, raising the dependency ratio. Already the economy leans heavily on expatriate labour – foreigners form a large and growing portion of the workforce, particularly in tourism and construction. Without policy adjustments, that reliance is set to deepen.
The demographic dividend that once promised a youthful labour force is fading. Women’s participation in the formal economy remains limited, partly because care responsibilities still fall disproportionately on them. In the tourism sector, Maldivians make up only a minority of workers, and women’s share is even smaller. As the local working-age population plateaus and then declines, the question of who will staff the economy becomes urgent.
Policy Choices That Cannot Wait
Several voices in Tides of Tomorrow call for systemic change rather than piecemeal fixes. Leesh Wisham argues that social problems – drugs, education gaps, divorce – are often treated in isolation when housing is frequently the root cause. A holistic approach is needed. Development, she and others note, tends to follow existing population concentrations, reinforcing the very centralisation that empties the islands.
Shadhiya Ibrahim stresses the need for family-friendly workplaces, including in tourism, and an enabling environment that supports women in both family life and economic participation. Decentralisation of services – health, education, employment opportunities – appears repeatedly as a potential remedy. Without it, the pull of Male’ will only strengthen. Noorain Jana of the Kandoofa Foundation adds that adaptability and holistic thinking, long part of Maldivian identity, must guide planning toward 2050 through research and innovation.
Official projections underline the stakes. Whether fertility stabilises near 1.7 or falls further will mainly affect the speed of ageing, not its direction. The size of the future labour force will depend heavily on the scale of foreign migration. Education systems will need fewer primary-school places and more capacity for lifelong learning and elderly care. Health and pension systems must prepare for a sharply higher old-age dependency ratio.
Navigating the Tide
Tides of Tomorrow does not offer easy answers. It simply holds up a mirror to a nation whose rapid social and economic progress has produced an equally rapid demographic transition. The film’s power lies in its human detail: the student who sees no future on her island, the young couple calculating whether they can afford a child, the advocate insisting that housing underpins almost every other social challenge.
The Maldives still has time to shape its response. Investments in decentralised services, affordable housing beyond the capital, family-support policies, and greater inclusion of women in the formal economy could ease the pressures. Preparing health and social-protection systems for a larger elderly population is no longer a distant concern. The documentary, and the data behind it, make one point clear: the demographic tide is already turning. How the country rides it will determine the kind of society its children – and its elders – will inherit.
