A European Commission report warns that 36 per cent of Greek territory is already desertified, leaving 47 per cent of the population exposed as climate pressures, wildfires and poor land use accelerate soil loss across the Mediterranean.

Nearly half of Greece’s population lives in areas directly affected by desertification, according to a new assessment by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. The findings place the country among the most severely impacted in the European Union, with more than one-third of its land already degraded and a far higher share showing early signs of decline.

The report, co-authored by Greek soil scientist Panos Panagos of the EU Soil Observatory, defines desertification not as the literal spread of sand dunes but as the progressive loss of land’s capacity to support vegetation, crops and human communities in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones. It results from the interplay of climatic shifts and human activity. Across Greece, 72.74 per cent of the territory now displays at least one indicator of land degradation – well above the EU average of 56.4 per cent. Fully 36 per cent is classified as already affected by desertification.

That figure ranks Greece third in the EU behind Spain (53 per cent) and Cyprus (45 per cent). Yet the human dimension is even starker: 47 per cent of residents live in exposed zones, the second-highest share after Cyprus’s 61 per cent. EU-wide, desertification already touches roughly 530,000 square kilometres – about 12 per cent of the bloc’s territory – and affects some 42 million people.

Overlapping Risks of Poverty and Land Loss

The study highlights a troubling overlap between environmental stress and socioeconomic vulnerability. Seven Greek regions combine high desertification exposure with poverty-risk rates above the national average of 27.5 per cent. In the North Aegean, 64 per cent of land is affected while 28 per cent of residents face poverty risk. Eastern Macedonia and Thrace records 56.6 per cent desertification and 31.6 per cent poverty risk. Central Macedonia stands at 55.9 per cent and 33 per cent, Western Macedonia at 55.7 per cent and 29.5 per cent, Thessaly at 54 per cent and 30.5 per cent, Western Greece at 53.7 per cent and 27.9 per cent, and the Peloponnese at 51.55 per cent desertification alongside the highest regional poverty-risk rate of 38.1 per cent.

Researchers caution that correlation does not prove direct causation. Still, the coincidence of degraded soils and higher social exclusion underscores how land degradation can erode livelihoods, accelerate rural depopulation and deepen inequality.

Drivers Behind the Degradation

Multiple forces are converging. Climate change is intensifying aridity across the Mediterranean, a recognised climate hotspot. Temperatures have risen roughly 1.5 °C since the mid-twentieth century while rainfall has declined 10-20 per cent in southern and island regions. Summer precipitation in southern Europe is projected to fall by 50 per cent or more by the end of the century under higher-warming scenarios. Droughts are becoming longer and more frequent; between 2020 and 2024 an average of 40 per cent of Greek land experienced at least one month of extreme drought annually – nearly triple the rate of the 1950s.

Wildfires compound the damage. Since 2000 nearly 2.5 million acres have burned. In Attica alone, fires destroyed 37 per cent of forests and grasslands between 2017 and 2024. Repeated burns strip protective vegetation, leave soils exposed to erosion and hinder natural regeneration. On islands such as Kythira, successive fires have pushed landscapes toward rapid desertification, raising flood risk while depleting groundwater recharge.

Human practices accelerate the process. Soil erosion averages about four tonnes per hectare per year – twice the European mean. Intensive agriculture, heavy machinery on slopes, over-extraction of water for irrigation (which accounts for more than 80 per cent of freshwater use), salinisation from poor-quality irrigation water, deforestation and overgrazing all degrade soil structure and organic matter. In some hilly areas of Thessaly, decades of tillage have removed tens of centimetres of topsoil. Aging water networks lose roughly half the water they carry before it reaches users, further straining scarce resources.

Rural depopulation creates a paradoxical feedback. As younger residents leave for cities or abroad, traditional terrace systems and land stewardship collapse. Untended landscapes become more vulnerable to erosion and invasive vegetation that later fuels fires. Greece’s broader demographic decline – low fertility, net out-migration and an aging population – amplifies these pressures in already fragile rural zones.

Future Expansion of Dry Conditions

Climate projections embedded in the JRC analysis warn that drylands will expand. Areas classified as dry, dry sub-humid or drier could grow by 5-10 per cent of EU territory over the next two decades – roughly 200,000 to 400,000 square kilometres. Semi-arid zones may increase by a further 2-5 per cent. Southern Europe, including Greece, faces the most pronounced shifts. Additional modelling for Greece points to heightened drought severity in eastern Crete, the southeastern Peloponnese, Thessaly and western regions under both moderate and high-emission pathways.

Earlier national assessments had already flagged the scale of the problem. Studies using the MEDALUS Environmentally Sensitive Areas Index estimated that around 30 per cent of Greece was degraded and nearly half highly susceptible. The new EU-wide methodology, responding to recommendations from the European Court of Auditors, provides a more harmonised baseline that integrates soil health, productivity and land-cover change indicators.

Implications for Agriculture, Water and Communities

The consequences reach beyond environmental statistics. Agriculture, still a cornerstone of many regional economies, faces declining yields, salinised soils and unreliable irrigation. Olive groves, cereals and livestock systems in Thessaly, Crete, the Peloponnese and the Aegean islands are particularly exposed. Water stress is already prompting emergency desalination and tanker deliveries on several islands. Biodiversity suffers as habitats fragment and wetlands dry. Dust from degraded soils raises health risks, while the loss of productive land can push further out-migration, emptying villages and weakening local tax bases.

Experts emphasise that desertification is not inevitable. Sustainable land management – cover crops, reduced tillage, terracing restoration, fire-resilient reforestation, efficient irrigation and water reuse – can slow or reverse degradation. The EU Soil Monitoring and Resilience Directive and the Soil Observatory provide tools for ongoing tracking.

Greece’s earlier National Action Plan against Desertification, though long under-implemented, still offers a framework that could be updated and funded. Investment in forestry services, which remain understaffed after years of austerity, is equally critical for prevention and post-fire recovery.

A Mediterranean Warning

Greece’s experience mirrors pressures across southern Europe and the wider Mediterranean. Spain, Cyprus, Portugal and parts of Italy confront similar combinations of rising heat, falling rainfall, intensive land use and demographic change. The JRC findings arrive as policymakers debate soil health targets and climate adaptation funding. For Greece, the data translate an abstract environmental process into a concrete national challenge: almost half the population already lives on land whose productivity and resilience are under measurable threat.

Addressing that threat will require coordinated action across climate policy, agricultural practice, water governance and rural development. Without it, the progressive loss of fertile ground risks becoming a self-reinforcing cycle of environmental decline, economic strain and demographic retreat. The report’s clear message is that the window for effective response remains open – but is narrowing under the combined weight of a heating climate and continued pressure on the land itself.