Changing monsoon currents and favourable estuary conditions have sparked a four-year hilsa surge in Gujarat, reversing traditional trade flows with Bangladesh and filling gaps in West Bengal markets ahead of festive seasons.

West Bengal’s iconic hilsa, long synonymous with the Ganga-Hooghly and Padma river systems, has found an unexpected new stronghold in the waters of Gujarat. In 2025-26, the western state’s total hilsa production soared to 14,587.72 metric tonnes, the highest in four years, driven largely by a dramatic inland surge along the Narmada River near Bharuch. This ecological shift, linked to monsoon dynamics and estuary conditions, has not only boosted local livelihoods but also overturned the conventional India-Bangladesh hilsa trade, with India exporting hundreds of tonnes of the prized fish eastward.

Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha), an anadromous species that spends most of its life in the sea before migrating upstream into freshwater rivers to spawn, has traditionally thrived in the nutrient-rich estuaries of eastern India and Bangladesh. Experts note that factors including the Farakka Barrage, riverine construction, altered depths, pollution and climate change have degraded those classic breeding grounds over decades. In contrast, the ideal mixing of freshwater and seawater in the Narmada estuary near Bharuch has created near-perfect conditions for the fish.

Record Production Driven by Inland Surge

Gujarat Fisheries Industry Commissioner, Vijay Kharadi, reported that production stood at 14,198.98 metric tonnes in 2022-23 before dropping to 8,209.48 tonnes in 2023-24 and 8,535.75 tonnes in 2024-25. The rebound in 2025-26 was sharp. Inland hilsa output alone jumped from just 123.62 metric tonnes the previous year to 4,645.99 metric tonnes. Bharuch district alone accounted for 7,410.09 metric tonnes – nearly 51 per cent of the state total – comprising 2,949.76 tonnes of marine hilsa and 4,460.33 tonnes of inland catch.

The four-month monsoon season has become a lifeline for more than 25,000 fishermen in villages along the Narmada, including areas around Hansot, Dahej and Bhadbhut. Local fishers describe catches unlike any seen in living memory. “We have never seen a seasonal catch like this in the Narmada. Finding such a high volume of hilsa right here at our doorstep in Bhadbhut has brought immense relief to our families,” said Ramesh Machhi, a fisherman from Bharuch. Fellow fisher Suresh Machhi added that strong demand from Kolkata markets has raised household incomes and restored financial security.

Traders estimate that around 250 tonnes of hilsa move from Bharuch to Kolkata and Howrah markets each season because of limited local demand in Gujarat. Cold-storage facilities in ports such as Veraval fill with fish destined almost exclusively for eastern India.

Climate and Estuary Conditions Behind the Shift

Assistant professors RB Vala and AM Parmar of the College of Fisheries Science at Kamdhenu University, Gandhinagar, explain that nutrient-rich monsoon flows into the sea, combined with optimal salinity gradients in the Narmada estuary, have encouraged the migration. Heavy rainfall in recent years has increased freshwater discharge, lowering salinity near the river mouth – the precise cue hilsa need to move upstream to spawn.

Officials and scientists link the phenomenon to climate variability. Deputy Director of Fisheries Kirit Patni pointed to unusually high rainfall in Saurashtra as a key driver. “This sudden change can be attributed to climate change, rain in the area,” he said. While a residential hilsa population exists in the Ukai reservoir, migratory shoals from the Arabian Sea now enter the Narmada and Tapi rivers in large numbers. Scientists caution, however, that the boom may not be permanent. “It’s completely unexpected. There is no guarantee this will repeat next year,” noted Dr Ketan V Tank of the College of Fisheries Science.

Earlier studies had documented a long-term decline in Narmada hilsa after the Sardar Sarovar Dam reduced freshwater flows and altered estuary dynamics. The recent recovery therefore represents a striking reversal, albeit one dependent on continued favourable hydrological conditions.

Trade Reversal: Gujarat Hilsa Heads to Bangladesh

The production surge has produced an unprecedented trade turnaround. Over a two-month period in 2026, India exported approximately 500 metric tonnes of roe-rich Gujarat hilsa to Bangladesh, with another 150–200 tonnes expected shortly afterwards. Consignments move primarily from Bharuch port and through Howrah’s wholesale market.

Syed Anwar Maqsood, secretary of the Howrah Wholesale Fish Importers’ Association, observed: “Usually, it is the other way round. Hilsa from Bangladesh, which is considered the best for its taste, is imported around the Durga Puja time. But this is for the first time that hilsa is being exported to Bangladesh.” Gujarat fish, valued for high egg content, find ready buyers in Chattogram and Sylhet, where roe is processed separately for re-export while the flesh is dried for local markets.

Bangladesh, still the world’s largest hilsa producer, has faced successive years of declining domestic output linked to weak enforcement of juvenile protection rules, river pollution and siltation. Imports from Gujarat have helped keep retail prices in the range of Tk 2,000-2,200 per kilogramme rather than the Tk 2,700-3,000 levels that might otherwise have prevailed. West Bengal traders, meanwhile, continue to seek limited official imports of Padma hilsa ahead of Durga Puja, underscoring the cultural premium still attached to the traditional eastern variety.

Livelihood Gains and Market Dynamics in Bengal

For Gujarat’s fishing communities the boom has translated into tangible economic relief after years of fluctuating catches. Daily consignments of five to seven tonnes leave Veraval and other ports for Howrah, Sealdah and beyond. In Kolkata markets, Gujarat hilsa has filled the vacuum left by reduced local and Bangladeshi supplies, preventing prices from climbing beyond Rs 3,000 a kilogramme.

Yet the hierarchy of taste persists. Bengali consumers and traders still rank Padma hilsa highest for flavour and prestige, followed by riverine West Bengal fish and then the Gujarat catch. Gujarat’s “white” or chaksi variety commands better prices than the darker sea-caught palwa, but both remain secondary to the eastern benchmark. Many consignments nevertheless reach Bengali tables, sometimes mislabelled, reflecting the pressure of festive demand.

Sustainable Management Challenges Ahead

The shift raises longer-term questions for fisheries management. Hilsa remains the national fish of Bangladesh and the state fish of West Bengal; its growing presence in the Narmada underscores the need for coordinated river-ecosystem protection, regulation of juvenile catches and scientific monitoring. Related conservation efforts, such as scientific river ranching under the Namami Gange programme that has released millions of indigenous fish seeds including hilsa into the Ganga system, illustrate the value of evidence-based interventions.

Gujarat authorities have sought inputs from the Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute to understand and potentially sustain the new patterns. For the thousands of families dependent on the monsoon hilsa season, the current abundance offers welcome stability. Whether the Narmada can remain a reliable breeding ground will depend on continued monsoon patterns, careful management of freshwater flows and protection of the delicate estuary balance that has so unexpectedly favoured the “queen of fish.”

As climate variability continues to reshape river systems across South Asia, the Gujarat hilsa story serves as a vivid reminder that traditional food geographies are no longer fixed. What was once an eastern delicacy is now travelling west to east in volume, rewriting both markets and cultural expectations in the process.

Image: Wikimedia