The Taliban has long maintained unity and suppressed dissent, but recent public discord reveals deep internal rifts. Experts warn these divisions could turn violent, potentially igniting a new civil war and further destabilizing the already volatile region.

The Taliban, long known for maintaining a united front and keeping internal conflicts out of public view, is now exhibiting unprecedented internal discord. Reports carried by Radio Azadi/Radio Liberty suggest that deepening divisions within the militant group could lead to violence, further destabilising Afghanistan and the surrounding region.

The report says that the Taliban’s cash-strapped and unrecognised government has also come under increasing financial pressure.

Signs of Fracture

For years, the Taliban operated under a culture of secrecy and strict unity. However, recent events have brought to light growing tensions within the leadership. “Despite a culture of secrecy and unity, recently there have been public shows of disunity,” Radio Azadi/Radio Liberty quoted Michael Semple, a former European Union and UN adviser to Afghanistan as saying. “These suggest that the movement is under real strain,” he added.

The report says that the assassination of Taliban Refugees Minister Khalil Haqqani in December through a suicide bombing marked a turning point. Haqqani, the highest-ranking official to be killed since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, left behind a faction that reportedly suspects internal rivals of orchestrating his death.

In January, another significant blow to the group’s image of unity occurred when a senior Taliban official, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, left the country after making remarks that were interpreted as a critique of the Taliban’s spiritual leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada.

“Follow him, but not to the extent that, God forbid, you grant him the rank of prophethood or divinity,” Stanikzai said, according to an audio recording released last month. “If you deviate even a step from God’s path, then you are no longer my leader, I do not recognize you.”

His remarks, which also included criticism of the ban on girls’ education, reportedly led to Akhundzada issuing a travel ban and an arrest warrant against him. Although Stanikzai cited health reasons for his departure to the United Arab Emirates, multiple reports carried by Radio Azadi/Radio Liberty suggest that he fled due to fears of reprisal.

Rising Discontent and Financial Struggles

Alongside these leadership rifts, dissatisfaction among Taliban members has also surfaced over financial matters. Many rank-and-file fighters have openly complained about delayed salary payments. These financial pressures, coupled with growing disillusionment within the ranks, are exposing the Taliban’s fragility.

The Taliban has repeatedly denied the existence of internal rifts. Chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told the Tolo News, a platform for news from Afghanistan, that the group “will never engage in disagreements, become a source of division, or take actions that could lead to misfortune or bring instability back to the country.”

Yet, according to sources within the Taliban who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity, there is a growing sense of “chaos” and “uncertainty.” These sources also confirmed that officials are now banned from leaving Afghanistan unless they receive authorisation from Akhundzada.

“Recent events, particularly tensions between different factions within the Taliban, are a significant challenge to their unity, but they are not the only or necessarily the biggest threat,” said Hatef Mukhtar, director of the Afghanistan Centre for Strategic Studies. Radio Azadi/Radio Liberty reports that Taliban members who feel marginalized by the current leadership are increasingly vocal about their grievances.

Internal Power Struggles

At the heart of the divisions is a growing power struggle between key factions within the Taliban. Akhundzada, who operates from Kandahar, has centralised power and sidelined relatively moderate figures in favour of enforcing hard-line policies that have isolated Afghanistan on the international stage.

Among Akhundzada’s prominent rivals are Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s interior minister and leader of the influential Haqqani network, Mullah Mohammad Yaqub, the defence minister and son of Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar, and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy prime minister who once headed the group’s political office in Qatar.

“The political and military opposition to the Taliban is weaker than in the 1990s,” said Semple. “But the expectations of the Afghan population are much higher, and the levels of popular frustration with Taliban performance are unprecedented. Unhappy Taliban know this.”

The growing dominance of the Kandahar-based leadership at the expense of former battlefield commanders and the political wing of the Taliban has exacerbated tensions. Some Taliban leaders favour diplomatic engagement and economic investment to gain international recognition, while others prioritise enforcing a strict Islamic rule, even if it means continued isolation.

Looming Threat of Violence

These internal conflicts coincide with increasing attacks from the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) extremist group, which continues to challenge the Taliban’s ability to maintain security. On February 11, a suicide bombing outside a bank in northern Afghanistan killed at least five people, according to Taliban officials. However, Taliban sources speaking anonymously to Radio Azadi/Radio Liberty claimed that the death toll was at least 14, including several Taliban members.

Meanwhile, the Taliban’s financial woes are also mounting. US President Donald Trump froze all foreign aid to Afghanistan, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis. The national currency, the afghani, has plummeted in value, leading to price hikes that are further straining Afghan citizens.

What Comes Next?

Despite these tensions, the Taliban has shown resilience in managing internal disputes. However, experts warn that continued divisions could threaten the group’s cohesion.

“The most likely scenario is low-level infighting, assassinations, and internal purges rather than an open military confrontation,” said Mukhtar.

In the report, Radio Azadi/Radio Liberty says that if the Taliban leadership fails to address these deepening rifts, Afghanistan could find itself on the brink of another round of intra-Islamist conflict. Reports indicate that while a full-scale civil war remains uncertain, the potential for violence within Taliban ranks is growing by the day.