With US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, renewed protectionist trade policies and tariff barriers are bound to return to the fore. To hedge against this possibility, Bangladesh is considering increasing its cotton imports from the United States.

Bangladesh is set to overtake China as the world’s largest cotton importer this fiscal year, driven by rising global demand for garments and its strategic positioning in the global supply chain. While this marks a significant milestone for the South Asian nation, experts warn that Bangladesh’s deep reliance on imported cotton also exposes the country’s crucial export sector to geopolitical and economic risks.

According to the latest forecast from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Bangladesh is expected to import 7.8 million bales of raw cotton in the current fiscal year, up from 7.5 million bales the previous year. This surge places it just behind China, which is projected to import 8 million bales. However, many in the industry believe Bangladesh could surpass China this fiscal year due to its increasing demand and lower domestic production.

Bangladesh’s meteoric rise as a cotton importer reflects its growing dominance in the global textile and apparel market. The country’s ready-made garment (RMG) sector – the second-largest in the world after China – accounts for over 86 per cent of national export earnings and forms the backbone of its economy. Cotton is the primary raw material in this sector, comprising 71 per cent of all fibre used in textile production, according to data from the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA).

Reliance on Imports to Meet Growing Demand

Despite the scale of the sector, Bangladesh’s domestic cotton production is negligible compared to its consumption. In 2025, the Cotton Development Board projects domestic output to reach only 228,000 bales, harvested from 46,000 hectares of land. This is a modest increase from last year’s 210,000 bales.

By contrast, national demand stands at approximately 8.5 million bales annually, leaving a staggering shortfall of around 8.3 million bales that can be met through imports alone. The financial burden is immense: Bangladesh spends an estimated Tk35,000 crore every year on cotton imports.

“Our spinning mills depend almost entirely on foreign cotton,” said Dr Md Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib, Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board. “Without reliable international sources, the entire textile industry could face major disruptions.”

Risks from Geopolitics and Supply Chain Shocks

With about 50 per cent of its cotton currently sourced from African countries, Bangladesh’s supply chain is vulnerable to the increasing instability across parts of Africa due to conflicts and political crises.

Muhammad Ayub, General Secretary of the Bangladesh Cotton Association, warned that “war and other crises are increasing in African countries, which could severely impact our ability to import cotton on time.” He stressed the need to diversify sourcing and pursue high-yield domestic cotton production to reduce dependency.

Another risk is the evolving global trade environment. With US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, renewed protectionist trade policies and tariff barriers are bound to return to the fore. To hedge against this possibility, Bangladesh is considering increasing its cotton imports from the United States.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain highlighted this potential pivot, saying, “We are considering importing cotton from the US, to minimise the trade gap with the country and encourage the US agriculture production.” He added that higher cotton imports from the US would strengthen bilateral trade ties and potentially shield Bangladesh from tariff threats under a Trump administration.

“The US government will hesitate to impose tariffs on goods made in Bangladesh while we import more cotton from them,” he noted during a recent discussion.

Push for Strategic Adjustments

Recognising the strategic importance of maintaining an uninterrupted cotton supply, policymakers and industry stakeholders are calling for concrete actions.

Showkat Aziz Russell, President of the BTMA, said, “Our factories are still facing production issues due to the ongoing gas crisis, but we’re working to reduce dependence on imported yarn by promoting domestic yarn production.” Russell also welcomed the recent decision to suspend Indian yarn imports through land ports, citing the need to protect local mills from low-quality competition.

“Bangladeshi textiles are producing world-class yarn, which is best for good quality fabrics,” he said. “Stopping low-quality yarn through land ports was a threat to domestic textiles and our global competitiveness.”

Russell argued that as Bangladesh leads in cotton-based manufacturing, becoming the world’s top cotton importer is a natural outcome. However, he cautioned that such a title also requires a stable and diversified sourcing strategy to prevent supply chain bottlenecks.

Trends in Cotton Consumption and Export Performance

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service also highlighted other factors contributing to increased cotton demand. Notably, the country’s RMG exports surged 13.2 percent year-on-year in the first two months of 2024, reaching $9.47 billion. With the global economy recovering, Bangladesh’s apparel industry is projecting a 7–10 percent rise in exports for the entire year.

This robust performance is encouraging many garment manufacturers to rely more on their own spinning mills, reducing yarn and fabric imports and increasing raw cotton use instead. Additionally, some firms are using their export earnings – usually in US dollars – to finance direct cotton imports, helping bypass forex constraints and avoid expensive intermediary purchases.

According to the USDA, Bangladesh imported 4.1 million bales of cotton in the first seven months of the ongoing marketing year (MY2024), and full-year imports are expected to hit 7.5 to 8 million bales. Domestic consumption is estimated at 7.8 million bales, and further increases are likely if global demand holds strong.

Looking Ahead: Building a Resilient Cotton Ecosystem

Experts agree that while becoming the world’s top cotton importer reflects the strength of Bangladesh’s textile sector, it also underscores the urgent need to secure the supply chain through strategic planning and policy support.

“We must diversify sources, invest in domestic cotton research, and look to reliable partners like the US,” said Ayub. “Only then can we shield ourselves from the shocks of war, trade restrictions, or price volatility.”

Meanwhile, Dr Tabib of the Cotton Development Board advocates for high-yield cotton varieties and expanded cultivation, saying, “Even a modest increase in domestic production would reduce our import burden and add resilience.”

The stakes are high. With over US$22 billion invested in the textile and clothing industry and its significant 13 percent contribution to GDP, any disruption to the cotton supply chain could have ripple effects across the economy.

As Ayub said, “For Bangladesh, the challenge now is not just importing more cotton—but importing smarter, diversifying sources, and gradually reducing dependency through sustainable domestic initiatives.”Image: Wikimedia