Middle East

IMF officials feel that without decisive action, Bangladesh risks not only losing the immediate $1.3 billion tranche but also jeopardising future disbursements and its broader reform credibility.

As tensions persist, the world watches closely, aware that even minor escalations could have far-reaching consequences. The Strait of Hormuz, long recognised for its strategic importance in energy markets, is now emerging as a critical node in the global food supply chain.

Tapping into domestic reserves of phosphate and potash, along with promoting balanced fertiliser use that moves beyond urea dominance.

In its policy brief released on Monday, the UNDP described the conflict as “development in reverse”, cautioning that even a fragile ceasefire may not prevent long-lasting economic damage.

At the international poverty line of $3 a day, an additional 1.4 million people are estimated to have slipped into poverty between 2022 and 2025 due to stagnant labour incomes and persistent inflation that eroded the benefits of whatever growth occurred.

As the two-week ceasefire takes effect, markets will be watching closely for signs of sustained de-escalation. Yet even if fighting subsides, the economic scars of the Iran war may take far longer to heal, the three organisations said.

India’s economy is projected to grow at 6.6 per cent in fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), a moderation from the 7.6 per cent expansion expected in FY26, as higher energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict and supply chain disruptions weigh on activity.

The world has faced oil shocks before. This one, Birol made clear, is different – deeper, wider and more dangerous. How governments respond in the coming weeks will determine whether the pain remains temporary or becomes a lasting scar on the global economy.