Many analysts view the deportations as part of a broader geopolitical strategy by Pakistan to pressure the Taliban government into curbing cross-border militancy. Afghan refugees have also been subjected to racial profiling, with Pakistani authorities linking them to criminal activities.

The Pakistani government has officially commenced the forced repatriation of Afghan refugees residing illegally within its borders following the expiration of the March 31 deadline for voluntary departure. The move, part of a broader security strategy, has sparked global criticism, with human rights organizations warning of severe humanitarian consequences.

According to Radio Pakistan, nearly 878,972 Afghan refugees have already voluntarily returned to Afghanistan under the repatriation initiative. However, as of today (1 April 2025), those who have failed to leave voluntarily now face forced deportation. Amnesty International has strongly opposed Pakistan’s repatriation plan, calling it “opaque” and warning that the mass expulsion of refugees could worsen their plight.

A Humanitarian Crisis Unfolding

Pakistan currently hosts an estimated 2.5 million Afghan nationals, of whom approximately 1.3 million hold Proof of Registration (PoR) cards issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Another 800,000 have Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC), issued by the Pakistani government in 2017, while many others reside in the country without legal documentation. A significant number of these refugees have lived in Pakistan for decades, with many born in the country who have never set foot in Afghanistan.

“This is our home,” said Mohammad Laal Khan, an Afghan refugee interviewed by Al Jazeera. “We have lived here all our lives, made friends here, built our businesses here. If the government insists on throwing us out, we will leave, but we will return once again.”

The Pakistani government’s repatriation plan is unfolding in phases, with ACC holders and undocumented refugees being the first targets for deportation. PoR cardholders, who were initially granted relief, face deportation in the second phase of the plan, set to take effect by June 2025. The final phase will focus on Afghan nationals awaiting relocation to third countries.

The government had earlier requested educational institutions in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) to provide details of Afghan students by March 27, integrating their data into the Foreign National Security Cell’s dashboard, which monitors foreigners in the country. K-P remains home to more than half of all Afghan refugees residing in Pakistan, particularly in Peshawar, where many run small businesses and contribute to the local economy.

Security Concerns Drive Policy Shift

Islamabad’s decision to expel Afghan refugees is largely driven by security concerns, as the country grapples with an escalating wave of terrorist attacks. Pakistani authorities have repeatedly accused armed groups operating from Afghanistan of orchestrating attacks on Pakistani soil, further straining relations between Islamabad and the Taliban-led Afghan government.

Minister of State for Interior Talal Chaudhry defended the government’s hardline stance, stating, “We have hosted Afghans in the country for four decades, showing our hospitality and generosity, but it cannot continue indefinitely. They will have to return.”

Despite pleas from the UNHCR and rights groups such as Human Rights Watch (HRW), Pakistan remains firm in its position. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has maintained that the government has “fulfilled its obligations” by providing refuge for Afghans over the years but is not bound to consult international organisations on its sovereign decisions.

International Outrage and Legal Challenges

The forced repatriation has drawn sharp criticism from international human rights bodies, which accuse Pakistan of violating the principle of non-refoulement – a fundamental principle in international law that prohibits returning refugees to a country where they may face persecution. However, Pakistan is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention or its 1967 Protocol, nor does it have a legal framework for refugee protection.

Elaine Pearson, Asia Director at HRW, urged Pakistani authorities to halt the mass deportations, stating, “Pakistani officials should immediately stop coercing Afghans to return home and give those facing expulsion the opportunity to seek protection.”

Amnesty International’s Deputy Regional Director for South Asia, Isabelle Lassee, also condemned the move, saying, “These opaque executive orders contravene the government’s own promises and repeated calls by human rights organisations to uphold the rights of Afghan refugees and asylum seekers.”

Legal challenges against the deportations are already underway in Pakistan’s Supreme Court and Islamabad High Court. Human rights lawyer Umer Gillani has argued that the government’s deportation order lacks legal standing, stating that “the official notification has not been issued under any particular law, it is just an executive instruction. This is not just against fundamental rights, but also against plain black letter law.”

Musicians and Other Vulnerable Groups at Risk

Among those most at risk are Afghan musicians, who have been subjected to persecution under the Taliban’s strict rule since their return to power in 2021. The Taliban has banned music, shut down music schools, and destroyed instruments, forcing many musicians to flee to Pakistan. Now, with deportation looming, they fear imprisonment, violence, or even death upon their return to Afghanistan.

Ustad Nadeem Baksh, a classical singer living in Rawalpindi, revealed to the media group, Context, that he paid a hefty bribe of 50,000 rupees ($175) to Pakistani police to avoid deportation. However, he remains uncertain about how long his family’s safety will last. “We are being hunted like criminals,” Baksh lamented. “We have nowhere else to go.”

Reports from human rights activists indicate that thousands of Afghan refugees have gone into hiding across major cities in Pakistan, fearing arrest and forced deportation.

Political Fallout and Future Implications

Many analysts view the deportations as part of a broader geopolitical strategy by Pakistan to pressure the Taliban government into curbing cross-border militancy. Afghan refugees have also been subjected to racial profiling, with Pakistani authorities linking them to criminal activities, further exacerbating tensions between the two countries.

In January 2025, Pakistan’s interim Minister of Interior, Mohsin Naqvi, introduced new residency restrictions, requiring Afghan refugees in Islamabad to obtain a no-objection certificate (NOC) to continue living in the city. The vague and burdensome requirement has only added to the hardships faced by refugees.

Meanwhile, the United Nations and international agencies continue to advocate for a more humane approach, emphasising the need for a structured and gradual repatriation process. The Taliban, too, has urged Pakistan to avoid forced deportations, acknowledging the severe challenges returnees will face in Afghanistan, where economic instability and political repression remain rampant.

Despite mounting pressure, Pakistan appears resolute in its decision. The coming weeks will determine how the repatriation unfolds and whether diplomatic efforts can alter the course of what many fear could become one of the largest forced migrations in recent history.

Image: NARA & DVIDS Public Domain Archive