The Climate Impact Lab plans to update its projections as El Niño evolves, providing decision-makers with continually refined guidance. The message is clear: the Super El Niño of 2026–27 is both a humanitarian emergency and a warning.
The Tier 3 ranking places Afghanistan among a small group of countries where governments or de facto authorities demonstrate a policy or pattern of trafficking or related exploitation, including the recruitment of child soldiers.
The Commission stresses that these threats are not distant or abstract. Some already impose heavy burdens; others carry low-probability but catastrophic potential.
The Tier 3 ranking places Afghanistan among a small group of countries where governments or de facto authorities demonstrate a policy or pattern of trafficking or related exploitation, including the recruitment of child soldiers.