A new United Nations assessment reveals an uptick in violence, persistent border clashes with Pakistan, ongoing rights abuses and deepening humanitarian strain five years after the Taliban returned to power.

The United Nations recorded 2,947 security incidents across Afghanistan between May and July 2026, marking an 11 per cent increase from the same period a year earlier, according to the latest report by Secretary-General António Guterres. The findings, which also detail volatile conditions along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, continued restrictions on women and girls, violations of a promised amnesty for former officials, and severe underfunding of humanitarian aid, paint a picture of surface-level stability that masks growing underlying risks.

The report arrives as the UN Security Council reviews the situation in Afghanistan, with UNAMA’s acting leadership briefing members on the challenges facing the country nearly five years after the Taliban seized power in August 2021. While the Taliban maintain territorial and administrative control, the document warns that this control has produced only an appearance of relative calm while rights violations, economic hardship, exclusion of half the population, and pressure from returns and border tensions accumulate.

Rising Attacks by Fragmented Opposition Groups

Fourteen listed armed opposition groups claimed responsibility for 88 incidents across 21 provinces during the reporting period; the UN verified 55 of them. Thirty of those attacks occurred in July alone. Most involved ambushes and assaults on checkpoints that targeted Taliban personnel and military facilities. Despite the numerical rise, the report assesses that these groups remain fragmented and have not mounted a significant challenge to Taliban authority.

Specific incidents highlighted include the Homeland Soldiers Front briefly seizing administrative buildings in Yaftal-e Payin district of Badakhshan on July 17 before withdrawing, an Afghanistan Freedom Front attack on a Taliban checkpoint in Zaybak district on July 24, and claimed Islamic State-Khorasan operations in Nuristan and Badakhshan. Analysts note that while such actions do not threaten overall control, they illustrate local grievances over exclusion from decision-making and economic opportunity.

Volatile Afghanistan-Pakistan Border and Civilian Toll

Tensions along the shared border remained high, marked by airstrikes, drone activity, cross-border shelling and retaliatory actions. Pakistani strikes affected areas in Ghazni, Kunar, Khost, Paktika and Paktiya, while clashes between Taliban and Pakistani forces were reported in Kandahar, Nangarhar and Paktiya.

Between April 1 and June 30, the UN documented 399 civilian casualties from these hostilities – 57 killed and 342 injured. A single set of Pakistani airstrikes on June 28 in Kunar, Paktika and Paktiya alone killed 28 civilians and injured 189. Pakistan has told UNAMA that its operations targeted militant hideouts linked to attacks inside its territory. The Taliban Foreign Ministry has rejected claims that militants were the primary targets. The pattern of civilian harm has drawn calls for greater UN engagement to de-escalate the situation and protect non-combatants.

Centralised Governance and Continued Amnesty Violations

Taliban decision-making remains highly centralized around leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, with opaque consultation processes. Between May and July he appointed one minister, eight deputy ministers, six provincial governors (in Badghis, Baghlan, Faryab, Ghazni, Jowzjan and Khost), nine deputy governors, 17 district governors, one mayor, seven provincial police chiefs and at least 14 provincial department heads. An instruction from Akhundzada also banned smartphones for civil servants and security personnel working in military courts, with exemptions requiring his personal written approval.

Despite the Taliban’s general amnesty for former government officials and security personnel, UNAMA documented at least 12 killings, 13 arbitrary arrests or detentions, and three cases of torture or ill-treatment of former officials and Afghan National Defense and Security Forces members in the same period. The report further recorded 21 instances of corporal punishment involving eight women and 13 men. Afghanistan’s prison population stood at approximately 30,300 as of July 20; the Taliban Supreme Court pardoned or released 1,191 prisoners around Eid al-Adha. Intelligence authorities also detained three journalists for periods ranging from 19 days to two months and suspended two media outlets.

Persistent Restrictions on Women and Girls

Restrictions on women and girls continue to form a major obstacle to development and international reintegration. Citing UNESCO, the report notes that 2.4 million Afghan girls remain excluded from secondary education. A UNICEF study estimates that limits on women’s education and employment cost the Afghan economy at least $84 million annually. In Herat in June, Taliban morality officials and police detained at least 30 women over alleged dress-code violations. When residents protested, plainclothes personnel beat and fired on the crowd, killing one boy and injuring at least four others; at least 17 protesters were arrested. Such enforcement continues to generate local tension and international concern.

Deepening Humanitarian Crisis and Funding Shortfalls

Humanitarian needs remain acute. Some 13.8 million people – roughly one in three Afghans – face acute food insecurity. Projections for 2026 indicate 3.7 million children under five and 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women will suffer acute malnutrition. The 2026 humanitarian response plan has received only $513 million of the $1.7 billion required, or about 30 per cent. Funding gaps led to the suspension or closure of roughly 150 health facilities between January and June.

Nearly 1.15 million Afghans returned between January 1 and August 22, including about 686,200 from Pakistan and 465,000 from Iran. Many returns were involuntary, adding pressure on jobs, services and host communities. The World Food Programme was forced to phase out cash assistance for returnees in June, leaving more than 400,000 vulnerable people without cash-for-food support. Economic indicators show inflation at 7.8 per cent in May (food inflation 8.2 per cent), compounded by disruptions to trade with Pakistan and through Iran. Opium cultivation remains at historically low levels after the Taliban’s 2022 ban, though methamphetamine trafficking linked to the region continues to rise.

Stability Masking Accumulating Risks

In its overall assessment, the report concludes that the Taliban’s territorial and administrative dominance has created an appearance of relative stability. That appearance, however, conceals mounting risks stemming from rights violations, the systematic exclusion of women and girls, economic hardship, weakening basic services, large-scale involuntary returns, and residual concerns over militant groups. Guterres has called on Taliban authorities to lift restrictions on women and girls, protect media freedom and due process, prevent further violations of the general amnesty, and end corporal punishment. He has also urged UN member states and participants in the Doha Process to sustain principled and pragmatic engagement aimed at supporting the Afghan people and facilitating the country’s eventual reintegration into the international community.

As the Security Council deliberates, the findings underscore that five years after the Taliban’s return, Afghanistan’s challenges remain multifaceted and urgent. Without meaningful steps on rights, inclusive governance and sustained international support for humanitarian needs, the risks identified in the report are likely to intensify rather than recede.