Rainfall shortfalls of up to 28 per cent in the southern peninsula have sparked urgent calls for drought declarations, crop compensation, loan waivers and national disaster packages in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh as the southwest monsoon begins withdrawing.

With the southwest monsoon withdrawing from parts of West Rajasthan on 19 September 2026, large stretches of southern India face deepening agricultural distress. According to the India Meteorological Department’s latest assessment, the country recorded an overall monsoon rainfall deficit of 15 per cent against the long-period average, the sharpest shortfall since 2009. The southern peninsula bore the heaviest burden at 28 per cent, followed by the east and northeast at 26 per cent, northwest India at 9 per cent and central India at 5 per cent.

The Drought Monitoring Portal and assessments by IIT Gandhinagar’s India Drought Monitor show acute shortages across Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. By mid-September, around 52 per cent of India’s geographical area was under dry or drought conditions, up sharply from earlier in the season. Coastal Andhra Pradesh reported deficits of 37-43 per cent, Rayalaseema 43 per cent, interior Karnataka around 32 per cent, Kerala 28 per cent and Marathwada in Maharashtra 36 per cent.

This season’s weakness has been widely linked to strong El Niño conditions, which the India Meteorological Department and agricultural authorities flagged early as likely to keep rainfall at around 90 per cent of the long-period average. Contingency plans were activated months ago for hundreds of vulnerable districts, yet on-ground impacts on kharif crops, livestock and rural employment have intensified demands for immediate relief rather than waiting for formal criteria.

CPI(M) Presses Andhra Pradesh for Immediate Drought Declaration

In Andhra Pradesh, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has demanded an immediate declaration of drought-hit mandals and a special relief package for farmers, tenant farmers and agricultural labourers. State secretary V. Srinivasa Rao told a press conference in Vijayawada that Left parties had visited affected areas and found the situation had worsened despite early El Niño warnings.

Around 50 lakh acres had been sown, but yields were expected from barely 20 lakh acres. The party called for a farm loan waiver, 200 days of work under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme at wages of at least ₹2,310 a day, compensation of ₹7.5 lakh for every drought-affected tenant farmer family, and the establishment of fodder centres. It also urged the Centre to declare the drought a national disaster and provide a ₹1 lakh crore package.

Rao questioned whether senior leaders, including Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu, who were travelling to attract investments, could visit drought-hit areas and meet distressed farmers. Farmer, labourer and tenant organisations announced protests from 21 September, while the state government indicated that drought-hit mandals might be declared only on 1 October. The CPI(M) insisted authorities act at once rather than allow conditions to deteriorate further.

Karnataka Farmers Threaten Statewide Protests on 28 September

Karnataka has described the current drought as the worst in 140 years. Deputy Chief Minister G. Parameshwara confirmed that 177 taluks had been declared drought-affected, with the number likely to approach or exceed 200 after further ground-truthing. Crop losses in the first batch of 101 taluks alone were estimated at ₹18,000 crore; the state has sought ₹3,500 crore in central relief. Rainfall stood at 642 mm against a normal of 852 mm, with deficits of 44-46per cent in interior regions.

The Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha (KRRS) has threatened massive protests at all district headquarters on 28 September. Leader Badagalapura Nagendra said farmers would demonstrate outside Deputy Commissioners’ offices and gherao elected representatives. He criticised both the Centre and the state for relying on outdated assessment norms and demanded that the state use its own resources for relief.

KRRS has sought a farm-loan waiver shared equally by the Centre and state, a halt to bank recoveries, priority power supply of at least seven hours daily for agricultural pump sets, filling of lakes and tanks, scientific crop-loss assessment, full insurance payouts deposited directly into farmers’ accounts, clearance of pending procurement dues for paddy, maize and ragi, and local employment under the rural job guarantee scheme to prevent distress migration.

Maharashtra Leaders Demand Immediate Relief and Higher Compensation

In Maharashtra, former Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar wrote to Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis urging an immediate drought declaration based on taluka-level rainfall, crop condition and actual damage rather than district averages. He sought financial assistance of at least ₹50,000 per hectare for affected farmers and ₹25,000 per agricultural labourer family, along with accelerated loan waivers and other measures. Marathwada recorded a 69 per cent rainfall shortfall in June-August, Vidarbha 61 per cent, with widespread damage to soybean, cotton and other crops.

Three farmers were detained in Akola after attempting to present withered soybean plants to State Agriculture Minister Dattatray Bharne to highlight crop losses and demand a drought declaration. State officials have indicated that a preliminary drought notification is imminent, with assessments underway and a cabinet panel formed to fast-track relief. Cooperation Minister Babasaheb Patil has spoken of the possibility of declaring 100 per cent of the state drought-hit by the end of September, describing the situation as the most severe he has witnessed.

National Picture and the Shadow of El Niño

Beyond the southern states, deficits have affected Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh. Over half of India’s area is under dry or drought conditions according to recent monitoring. The government had earlier mapped 315 districts across 12 states as vulnerable, classifying 111 as highly vulnerable due to irrigation coverage below 25 per cent. Contingency advice has included promoting less water-intensive crops such as pulses, millets and oilseeds and short-duration varieties.

The El Niño-driven weakness was flagged early in the season when rainfall deficits briefly reached extreme levels. Subsequent recovery was uneven, leaving the southern peninsula particularly exposed as the monsoon withdrew. Analysts note that while residual rains or the northeast monsoon may still offer limited relief in some areas, soil moisture deficits and crop stress are already severe.

Livelihood Pressures and Calls for Systemic Support

Farmers across the affected states report not only failed sowings but also fodder shortages, livestock stress and the risk of large-scale migration. Demands consistently include expanded MGNREGS work, timely insurance settlements, power for irrigation, and direct financial support that reaches tenant farmers and labourers as well as landowners. In Karnataka and Maharashtra, political pressure has intensified through legislative sessions, protests and high-profile letters.

The combination of a 15 per cent national deficit, a 28 per cent southern shortfall and the monsoon’s early withdrawal has turned what was once a forecast risk into a lived crisis for millions dependent on rainfed agriculture. As states move toward formal declarations and compensation packages, the speed and adequacy of response will determine whether rural distress can be contained before the rabi season begins under already strained water reserves.

Image: Welthungerhilfe