An El Niño, now officially established, and a weak southwest monsoon have prompted the Centre to activate contingency plans as hundreds of districts face the risk of drought, crop losses and water stress.

The centre has sounded an alarm over the likely impact of El Niño on India’s 2026 southwest monsoon, warning that 315 districts across 12 states could face significant rainfall deficits during the crucial kharif cropping season. With monsoon rainfall already running well below normal in several regions, the government has directed states to prepare district-level contingency plans to protect agricultural production and rural livelihoods.

According to assessments presented by the ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare, the impact of El Niño is expected to be relatively severe in Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. The affected districts have been identified based on historical rainfall patterns, current monsoon forecasts and vulnerability assessments.

The warning comes amid forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) that the 2026 southwest monsoon is likely to remain below normal at around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with El Niño conditions strengthening during the June-September season. The weather phenomenon has historically been associated with weaker monsoons, reduced soil moisture and lower agricultural output in India.

Centre Activates Contingency Plans

At a high-level review meeting with state agriculture ministers and officials, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan directed states to identify vulnerable districts and prepare crop-specific contingency plans in advance.

The centre has advised states to focus on water conservation, moisture management, inter-cropping, alternative cropping systems and drought-resistant crop varieties. District administrations have also been asked to strengthen agricultural extension services and ensure the availability of seeds and other inputs for contingency farming.

According to the government’s preparedness strategy, district-level plans will include recommendations on crop substitution, revised sowing schedules and water-saving techniques depending on rainfall conditions. The ministry has also launched awareness campaigns aimed at helping farmers adapt to changing weather patterns.

Officials said contingency plans have been prepared in consultation with agricultural universities, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and state governments to minimise losses in the event of prolonged dry spells.

Rainfall Deficit Raises Concerns

The warning follows a difficult start to the monsoon season. National rainfall during the first three weeks of June remained substantially below normal, with several states reporting significant deficits. According to recent weather assessments, rainfall in the first 21 days of June was more than 40 per cent below average, raising concerns over delayed sowing of kharif crops.

In Delhi, rainfall has been reported at around 25 per cent below normal levels, while parts of Maharashtra have experienced even sharper deficits. Pune district, for example, recorded one of its driest starts to June in decades, highlighting the uneven progress of the monsoon across the country.

Meteorologists say the monsoon’s advance stalled for nearly two weeks because of unfavourable atmospheric conditions linked to El Niño and other weather systems. Although rainfall activity has revived in central India, concerns remain that cumulative seasonal rainfall could remain below normal.

Threat to Agriculture and Food Security

Agriculture experts warn that inadequate rainfall during the kharif season could affect the production of major crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds, maize and cotton. A prolonged rainfall deficit could reduce soil moisture, lower reservoir levels and increase irrigation demand, particularly in rain-fed farming regions.

Nearly half of India’s population remains dependent on agriculture and allied activities for livelihoods, making monsoon performance critical for rural incomes and food security. Around 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall is received during the southwest monsoon season.

Economists also caution that weaker agricultural output could push up food prices and complicate efforts to control inflation. Reduced crop production often affects the availability of cereals, vegetables and edible oils, leading to broader economic consequences.

A recent analysis noted that paddy, pulses, oilseeds and maize are among the crops most vulnerable to rainfall shortages expected under El Niño conditions.

El Niño Officially Established

The IMD has formally confirmed the emergence of El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast models indicate that the phenomenon could strengthen further during the remainder of the monsoon season, increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall across large parts of India.

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, disrupting global atmospheric circulation patterns. For India, the phenomenon often weakens monsoon winds and reduces rainfall, although the relationship is not always uniform across regions.

International climate agencies have also warned that the current El Niño could become moderate to strong during the second half of 2026. Such conditions have historically been associated with droughts in parts of Asia and disruptions to agricultural production.

States Urged to Strengthen Resilience

Recognising the risks, several states have begun implementing water conservation measures and drought preparedness programmes. In Maharashtra’s Gadchiroli district, for instance, authorities have expanded water storage infrastructure and completed thousands of conservation projects to improve resilience against potential rainfall shortages.

The Centre has urged all vulnerable states to accelerate similar efforts, including rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge and efficient irrigation systems.

Officials emphasised that while forecasts point to a challenging season, outcomes will depend on the evolution of monsoon systems during July and August, which traditionally account for the bulk of seasonal rainfall. Weather experts note that early deficits can sometimes narrow if the monsoon becomes more active later in the season.

For now, however, policymakers remain focused on preparedness. With hundreds of districts at risk and millions of farmers dependent on timely rains, the coming weeks are expected to be crucial for India’s agricultural economy and food security outlook.