Households are expected to adopt severe negative coping strategies: selling last female livestock, arranging early marriages of daughters, and begging.
Afghanistan is entering the most severe period of food and income shortages in 2026, with emergency levels of acute hunger (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC Phase 4) projected to emerge in at least three provinces during the peak of the annual lean season, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) January 2026 update.
Between February and April, access to food and income will be most constrained nationwide, but particularly acute in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi provinces. Poor households there have exhausted home-produced food stocks and will depend almost entirely on markets, despite extremely weak purchasing power.
Emergency Conditions Forecast
FEWS NET states that poor households in these provinces face “extreme difficulty accessing food.” Seasonal drops in agricultural and casual labour demand, combined with multiyear drought and economic stagnation, leave families with almost no income buffers.
As a result, households are expected to adopt severe negative coping strategies: selling last female livestock, arranging early marriages of daughters, and begging. “Despite expectations of relative stability in food prices, household incomes are likely to remain limited,” the report warns. “Poor households will most likely turn to harmful livelihood coping strategies.”
Widespread Crisis and Stressed Conditions
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will remain widespread through May in the rest of the country. Households will struggle to meet food and non-food needs amid prolonged drought, declining remittances, limited labour opportunities, and a stagnant economy.
In southern and eastern areas, some families may experience stressed conditions thanks to income from vegetable and fruit production, casual labour, and remittances from Gulf countries. Food security is expected to improve countrywide from May onward as the 2026 harvest begins.
Market Pressures; Sharp Decline in Purchasing Power
Staple food prices rose modestly in December 2025. Wheat increased five per cent month-on-month due to stockpiling ahead of the lean season, while vegetable oil jumped eight per cent after the Afghanistan-Pakistan border closure disrupted imports and raised transport costs for rice, oil, and vegetables.
Market supplies remain adequate via Central Asian routes and a relatively strong afghani, yet purchasing power has collapsed. The amount of wheat a day’s unskilled labour wages can buy fell 36 per cent compared with December 2024. Casual labour wages showed similar erosion.
Returnee Influx Intensifies
Between December 2025 and January 2026, around 507,000 Afghans were forcibly returned from Iran and Pakistan – still adding heavy pressure on labour markets and household resources despite a 19 per cent year-on-year drop.
This influx, alongside reduced hiring by drought-affected landowners, has driven unskilled daily wages down 7 per cent year-on-year and intensified competition for casual work.
Harsh Winter and Human Suffering
Residents paint a grim picture of winter hardship. Gulali, a 40-year-old mother of five from Uruzgan province, said: “It is extremely cold and we have nothing to warm our homes. God is my witness, these children have no shoes and no clothes.”
Abdul Ghafar from the same province added that children without warm clothing frequently fall ill with chest and lung problems, sometimes fatally. Another person described families as “completely broken economically,” unable to afford clothing or medical care.
Humanitarian assistance has declined sharply amid global funding shortfalls, leaving millions more exposed.
Weather Outlook and Long-Term Risks
Precipitation from October 2025 to late January 2026 was largely below average, though higher than the same period last year in some regions. Heavy late-January snow improved snowpack, especially in central and western areas. Forecasts indicate average cumulative precipitation from February to May 2026, with equal chances of above- or below-average outcomes as La Niña transitions toward neutral conditions.
Nevertheless, the coming months will remain critical. Four consecutive years of drought, reduced remittances, returnee pressure, and structural economic fragility have eroded resilience. Without sustained international support, the humanitarian situation risks deepening further during these peak hunger months.
Image: World Vision
