A new study by the World Weather Attribution group concluded that rainfall during the June–July 2025 monsoon period was 10–15 percent heavier than it would have been without global warming.

Writing in an opinion piece for UK-based Trade Finance Global, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to the UK, Dr Mohammad Faisal, has issued a stark warning about the intensifying climate crisis facing his country. Faisal writes that Pakistan stands “on the frontlines of global warming, despite contributing almost nothing to its causes.”

The article, published this week, argues that climate change is no longer an environmental challenge alone but a threat to Pakistan’s economic stability, food security, and long-term development trajectory.

Dr Faisal noted that Pakistan’s recurring floods, glacial melt, and extreme heat have created overlapping humanitarian and financial crises. He underscored that Pakistan needs urgent global support – not as charity, but as climate justice. The envoy stressed that adaptation remains severely underfunded, even as scientific evidence shows climate-driven disasters becoming more intense each year. His remarks set the tone for a renewed national conversation, supported by new scientific studies and on-ground reports, about how climate change is reshaping Pakistan’s physical and socio-economic landscape.

Pakistan is once again confronting the harsh reality of a warming planet as extreme monsoon rains, accelerated glacier melt, and increasingly volatile weather systems reshape life across the country. Scientists and disaster officials warn that climate-induced disasters are growing in frequency and severity, with 2025 emerging as another year of catastrophic losses in the South Asian nation already ranked among the world’s most climate-vulnerable.

From deadly cloudbursts in the north to prolonged flooding in Punjab and Sindh, experts say climate change is no longer a looming threat but a lived emergency affecting millions. Emerging scientific assessments, including those conducted by international attribution groups, show that human-caused warming has significantly increased the intensity of rainfall events – with devastating consequences for human settlements, agriculture, infrastructure, and fragile ecosystems.

Study Links Intensified Monsoon to Human-Driven Warming

A new study by the World Weather Attribution group concluded that rainfall during the June–July 2025 monsoon period was 10–15 percent heavier than it would have been without global warming. This small-sounding percentage translated into a massive humanitarian crisis, as swollen rivers, embankment breaches, and flash floods killed hundreds and displaced more than a million people across the country. The hardest-hit areas included central and eastern Punjab, parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and low-lying riverine belts already weakened by earlier flooding cycles.

According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), many casualties occurred in informal settlements where mud houses and poorly reinforced structures collapsed under the pressure of fast-moving water. These communities, lacking drainage, sanitation, and durable housing, are disproportionately vulnerable to “compound disasters” –  where intense rain interacts with poverty, weak planning, and inadequate early-warning systems.

Across Punjab, videos circulated online showing residents clinging to rooftops as rescue boats struggled to reach inundated neighbourhoods. Key roads and bridges suffered heavy damage, causing extended power cuts and severing supply lines. Local authorities described scenes of “complete devastation”, pointing out that many areas had not yet recovered from the historic floods of 2022.

Retreating Glaciers Turn the North into a Hazard Zone

Pakistan’s mountainous north, home to some of the world’s highest peaks and a major tourist draw, has seen an alarming shift in climate patterns. Once considered safe summer refuges, valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are now exposed to climate extremes. Record-breaking temperatures, accelerated glacier melt, and sudden cloudbursts are producing a dangerous combination that has turned scenic landscapes into unpredictable hazard zones.

In July 2025, a powerful cloudburst struck the Babusar Pass area, killing at least 13 tourists and injuring dozens as torrents of mud and rocks crashed through roads and campsites. Hydrologists warn that such cloudbursts are becoming more common, fuelled by warmer air that holds more moisture and releases it explosively.

Retreating glaciers – especially in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayan ranges – are contributing to the formation of unstable glacial lakes. When these lakes breach their natural barriers, they unleash glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), threatening downstream communities. Pakistan now experiences more GLOFs annually than at any time in recorded history, according to experts monitoring cryosphere changes.

Local farmers in Gilgit-Baltistan describe how meltwater behaviour has changed dramatically: streams that once provided predictable flows now swing between drought-like lows and destructive surges. Meanwhile, soil hardening caused by prolonged heatwaves reduces water absorption capacity, making flash floods more likely and more violent.

Institutional Weaknesses Amplify Climate Impacts

While climate change is the driving force behind Pakistan’s recent disasters, specialists emphasise that governance failures, lack of investment in resilience, and unregulated development significantly magnify the damage. Urban planners and environmental scientists point to decades of encroachment on riverbeds, poorly maintained drainage systems, and the absence of climate-proof building codes.

Despite experiencing catastrophic floods almost every two to three years, Pakistan has yet to enforce major reforms that could reduce vulnerability. Climate expert Ali Tauqeer Sheikh has repeatedly highlighted that risk-prone zones continue to expand as cities grow outward without climate-sensitive zoning regulations.

Funding constraints also play a role. Pakistan contributes less than 1 percent of global emissions yet faces some of the steepest adaptation costs. International climate finance has been slow to reach the communities most at risk, with bureaucratic hurdles, loan-dependent relief programmes, and political instability hindering long-term planning.

Agriculture – which employs roughly 40 percent of Pakistan’s workforce – remains highly exposed to climate shocks. This year’s floods damaged standing crops, including rice, cotton, and sugarcane, resulting in billions of rupees in losses. Food prices rose sharply in urban areas, while millions of rural families lost livestock, seeds, and stored grain.

Public health risks are also rising. Floodwaters combined with high temperatures have created ideal breeding conditions for dengue-carrying mosquitoes, raising concerns about post-flood disease outbreaks. Experts warn that climate-driven health emergencies are likely to occur more frequently and with greater intensity.

La Niña May Bring Temporary Cooling – But Risks Remain High

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently announced a high likelihood of La Niña developing toward the end of 2025. While La Niña patterns tend to temporarily cool parts of the Pacific and may moderate some regional rainfall, scientists caution that global temperatures will still remain well above historical averages.

Even if La Niña brings short-term relief, Pakistan’s underlying vulnerabilities – melting glaciers, rising heat, failing urban infrastructure, and fragile river systems – will continue to generate crisis conditions unless addressed through structural reforms. Experts stress that robust adaptation measures, including flood-resistant housing, early-warning systems, reforestation, and defences for glacial lakes, are urgently needed.

But local climate researchers warn that Pakistan has little time left. Without decisive action, disasters of the magnitude seen in 2022 and 2025 could become regular events, placing millions at risk every monsoon season.