Chai deserves nothing less than coordinated action, research, and public awareness so that India can navigate this crisis.

For millions of Indians and tea lovers worldwide, a day without chai is unimaginable. Yet, the very industry that sustains this ritual is now confronting its sharpest crisis in decades. India’s tea sector – integral to the country’s economy, culture, and export reputation – is grappling with a severe decline in output driven by erratic weather patterns, pest infestations, and rising imports.

According to the Tea Board of India, production in June 2025 fell 9 per cent year-on-year, dropping from 146.72 million kilograms in June 2024 to just 133.5 million kilograms. The decline has been widespread, affecting all major tea-growing belts across North and South India.

A Pan-India Production Slump

In the northeastern states of Assam and West Bengal, home to India’s most celebrated tea estates, output fell from 121.52 million kilograms to 112.51 million kilograms. Southern regions, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, experienced an even sharper fall – from 25.20 million kilograms last June to only 20.99 million kilograms this year.

The pain is felt across the board. Large plantations produced 55.21 million kilograms in June 2025, compared to 68.38 million kilograms last year. Small growers, who account for a significant share of India’s tea supply, saw their output drop from 78.34 million kilograms to 68.28 million kilograms over the same period. This represents a major blow for the hundreds of thousands of smallholders who depend on tea as their primary livelihood.

Climate and Pests: A Double Blow

Industry leaders and scientists attribute the decline to the increasingly erratic monsoon and rising temperatures that are wreaking havoc on tea gardens. Tea bushes thrive on stable rainfall and moderate weather. But the 2025 monsoon has been anything but steady. Some areas faced rainfall deficits, leaving plants parched, while others were hit by intense downpours that damaged tender leaves and made plucking difficult.

“Tea cultivation is extremely climate-sensitive. Prolonged droughts and sudden excessive rains are destabilizing the crop cycle,” an official from the Indian Tea Association (ITA) said. This volatility has delayed plucking seasons, reduced the quality of harvested leaves, and lowered yields.

Worsening the crisis, pest infestations have surged in recent months. Rising temperatures create ideal conditions for pests like red spider mites and various fungal diseases. These not only damage crops but also force farmers to spend more on pesticides and plant protection measures – expenses that eat into already thin margins without guaranteeing recovery.

Smallholders Hit Hardest

While large estates have more resources to manage weather and pest-related challenges, small tea growers are in a precarious position. Operating mostly on marginal lands, with limited access to modern technology, irrigation, and credit, smallholders are highly vulnerable. The decline in harvests directly translates into reduced incomes, pushing many towards financial distress.

Tea is also a critical source of rural employment, particularly in Assam and the Nilgiris. When production falters, it triggers ripple effects – wage cuts, fewer workdays for plantation workers, and broader economic hardships for communities built around tea.

Price Pressures and Import Surge

One would expect a supply shortage to push up prices. Yet, paradoxically, auction prices for popular varieties like CTC (Crush, Tear, Curl) tea have fallen by 7 to 9.5 percent in key markets such as Assam and West Bengal.

This unexpected price slump is partly due to a surge in tea imports. India imported 82 percent more tea in 2024 than in 2023, primarily from Nepal and Kenya. These cheaper imports are flooding the domestic market, undercutting local producers and eroding their profitability. “It’s a perfect storm for the industry – declining production at home and intensified competition from imports,” said an ITA member.

A Threat to India’s Tea Heritage

The broader consequences are alarming. India is not only one of the world’s largest tea producers but also a leading exporter. Any sustained drop in output threatens export earnings and risks ceding market share to competitors like Kenya and Sri Lanka.

Domestically, India’s unwavering tea culture could also feel the impact. Reduced supply or declining quality could affect the daily cup cherished by hundreds of millions. For a country where chai is deeply embedded in cultural and social life, such changes would be far more than an economic issue.

The Path Forward: Adaptation and Policy Support

Experts and industry stakeholders stress the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies tailored to India’s diverse tea-growing regions. Proposed measures include developing drought- and pest-resistant tea varieties, investing in better irrigation and rainwater harvesting, and implementing integrated pest management systems to reduce chemical pesticide use.

“There is no silver bullet,” said an agricultural scientist working with tea growers in Assam. “We need region-specific research, technological interventions, and strong collaboration between government, industry, and farmers.”

Policy support is equally critical. Stakeholders are urging the government to introduce incentives that promote climate-resilient agriculture and modernization of tea gardens. Better credit facilities for smallholders, regulation of imports to prevent market distortion, and support for branding and marketing Indian tea globally could stabilize the sector.

A Call to Protect an Iconic Industry

At this critical juncture, the future of India’s tea industry hangs in the balance. The picturesque tea plantations of Assam’s Brahmaputra Valley and Kerala’s rolling Nilgiri Hills are more than just economic assets – they are cultural landmarks and lifelines for millions.

Protecting them from the ravages of climate change and unfair competition is essential not just for production numbers but for safeguarding a heritage. The story of India’s chai is deeply intertwined with its history and identity. To lose ground in this arena would be to erode a piece of the nation’s soul.