In a mixed bag for Indian kitchens, February’s veg thali price stays flat year-on-year at ₹27, while non-veg eases 3 per cent to ₹56, as per CRISIL’s latest food plate indicator.
As India’s bustling households grapple with the ebb and flow of daily grocery runs, the cost of preparing a simple home-cooked vegetarian thali has remained remarkably stable in February, clocking in at ₹27.1 on average across the country’s four major regions. This flat trajectory year-on-year – from ₹27.2 in February 2025 – marks a welcome pause after months of volatility, according to CRISIL’s monthly “Roti, Rice & Rate” (RRR) report released today.
For non-vegetarian enthusiasts, the news is even brighter: thali costs dipped 3 per cent to ₹55.6, down from ₹57.4 last year, offering a sliver of relief amid broader economic pressures.
The report, which tracks input prices for staples like rice, dal, vegetables, and proteins from northern, southern, eastern, and western markets, underscores how seasonal gluts and shortages continue to dictate dinner plates. “While benign prices in onions, potatoes, and pulses provided a buffer, the sharp spike in tomatoes acted as a stubborn counterweight,” said Krishnan Sitaraman, Senior Director at CRISIL Intelligence, in the report’s analysis. This delicate balance reflects not just agricultural cycles but also the resilience of supply chains in a nation where food inflation remains a political tinderbox.
Tomatoes, often dubbed the “inflation barometer” for their outsized influence on household budgets, surged 43 per cent to ₹33 per kg in February, up from ₹23 a year ago. Delayed transplantation in key producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka, coupled with a 32 per cent drop in mandi arrivals due to erratic weather, squeezed supplies just as demand picked up post-winter. On the flip side, onions tumbled 24 per cent thanks to a late influx of kharif harvest, while potatoes eased 13 per cent amid peak-season abundance. Pulses, a cornerstone of the veg thali, fell 9 per cent overall, buoyed by 20 per cent higher tur inventories and 10 per cent elevated Bengal gram stocks, easing pressure on protein costs.
For non-veg thalis, the decline was propelled by a 7 per cent drop in broiler chicken prices – the single largest component at nearly 50 per cent of the total cost – following a high base from last year’s avian flu scares. Poultry farmers in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu reported steady demand without supply disruptions, keeping wholesale rates in check. However, vegetable oil crept up 4 per cent due to global soybean tightness, and LPG cylinders rose 6 per cent, nudging up cooking expenses for urban middle-class families reliant on gas stoves.
Month-on-month, the picture was more pronounced: veg thali costs plunged 5 per cent from January’s ₹28.5, driven by a 29 per cent tomato correction and 6 per cent potato dip as arrivals normalised. Non-veg saw a milder 1 per cent fall, hampered by a 2 per cent broiler rebound from feed cost hikes and festive-season demand in southern markets.
From 2025 Peaks to 2026 Stability
Zooming out, February’s data caps a year of progressive relief for the average Indian kitchen. Back in March 2025, veg thali costs had fallen just 2 per cent year-on-year to around ₹28, with non-veg down 5 per cent amid early monsoon gains. By June 2025, aggressive declines kicked in – 8 per cent for veg and 6 per cent for non-veg – as rabi harvests flooded markets, slashing vegetable prices across the board. The momentum built through summer: July saw 14 per cent and 13 per cent drops respectively, fuelled by benign commodity trends and government procurement buffers.
October 2025 marked the nadir, with veg thalis 17 per cent cheaper and non-veg 12 per cent lower, thanks to bumper kharif yields and cooling pulse imports. Even November’s 13 per cent veg dip highlighted sustained vegetable and broiler softness. Entering 2026, January brought a modest 1 per cent veg decline and 7 per cent non-veg drop, setting the stage for February’s steadiness. Overall, CRISIL estimates that cumulative savings since early 2025 have shaved off nearly ₹5-7 per thali monthly, translating to ₹1,800-2,500 annual relief for a family of four consuming two thalis daily.
This downward spiral isn’t accidental. Government interventions, like onion exports curbs lifted strategically and pulse import duties trimmed to 5 per cent, have stabilized supplies. Climate-resilient varieties in potato farming – yielding 10 per cent more in Uttar Pradesh – have also played a role. Yet, experts caution that such gains are fragile. “With El Niño risks lingering into 2026, any heatwave could reverse tomato and onion trends overnight,” notes the report, echoing broader concerns over food security in a population where 60 per cent of caloric intake stems from home-cooked meals.
Implications for Households and the Economy
For the urban homemaker in Delhi’s Sarojini Nagar or a rural cook in Punjab’s villages, these micro-shifts carry macro weight. Food accounts for 40-50 per cent of low-income household spending, as per national sample survey data, making thali stability a bulwark against poverty traps. In February, the veg thali’s flatline meant no sticker shock at sabzi mandis, allowing discretionary spends on education or healthcare. Non-veg’s dip, meanwhile, boosted affordability in protein-scarce eastern states, where chicken substitutes costlier fish.
Economically, the RRR index feeds into consumer price index calculations, tempering headline inflation to 4.8 per cent in February from 5.2 per cent in January, as per RBI estimates. Lower food costs could prompt a 25-basis-point rate cut at the April MPC meet, spurring consumption in a ₹150-lakh crore agri-economy. Farmers, however, face a double-edged sword: onion growers in Nashik saw incomes dip 15 per cent from price crashes, prompting calls for MSP extensions to pulses.
Women, who shoulder 70 per cent of unpaid cooking labour as per ILO stats, stand to gain most. “Stable thali costs free up time and money, empowering better nutrition,” says nutritionist Dr. Anjali Hooda, citing how cheaper dals could boost iron intake in anaemia-prone demographics.
Weather, Policy, and the Plate’s Future
As March unfolds, CRISIL eyes upside risks from pre-monsoon dryness in Madhya Pradesh’s tomato belt and avian flu watch in broiler hubs. A projected 5 per cent rice price uptick from export bans could nudge veg costs higher by April. Yet, optimistic scenarios – normal rains and steady imports – could sustain sub-₹30 veg thalis through summer.
In a nation where the thali symbolizes sustenance and culture, CRISIL’s barometer isn’t just data; it’s a pulse on equity. As Sitaraman concludes, “These trends affirm policy wins, but sustained vigilance on climate and trade will define if relief endures.” For now, the plate holds steady – a small victory in the daily grind of feeding 1.4 billion.
Image: Wikimedia
