Extreme heat is already wiping out the equivalent of 31 million jobs a year across South Asia and could shrink the region’s economy by nearly 7 per cent by 2050, a new World Bank report warns, as cities and workers struggle under rising temperatures.

Extreme heat is no longer a seasonal inconvenience in South Asia. It has become a structural threat to jobs, productivity and long-term growth, according to a major World Bank report released on 29 July 2026. The study, A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia’s Cities, finds that rising temperatures are already costing the region the equivalent of nearly 31 million full-time jobs every year. Without urgent action, heat could reduce the region’s economy by almost 7 per cent by 2050.

The findings come as South Asia prepares to add some 280 million people of working age by mid-century. Cities, the engines of the region’s growth, are on the front line. By 2070, around 520 million people across the region could face at least one month of dangerous heat each year – four times the number today.

Cities and Workers on the Front Line

Johannes Zutt, World Bank Vice President for South Asia, put the challenge starkly: “South Asia’s cities are central to the region’s future, but rising temperatures are putting jobs, livelihoods, and economic growth at risk. Building heat-resilient cities is not only about protecting people from rising temperatures. It is about safeguarding jobs, boosting productivity, attracting investment, and ensuring cities continue to drive economic growth.”

The report argues that heat can no longer be treated as a seasonal emergency. It must become a core development priority, woven into urban planning, infrastructure investment, public policy and private-sector strategies. Extreme heat already reduces labour productivity, disrupts businesses, strains health systems and infrastructure, and hits low-income households, informal workers, women, the elderly and children hardest.

Bangladesh offers a clear illustration of the costs. In 2024 alone, heat-induced productivity losses reached an estimated $1.3 to 1.8 billion, or 0.3 to 0.4 per cent of the country’s GDP. These losses were driven by heat-related illnesses including diarrhoea, respiratory problems, exhaustion, depression and anxiety. On days when temperatures exceeded 37°C, productivity losses jumped 36 per cent higher than on milder days. Nationally, extreme heat caused about 250 million lost workdays that year.

In Dhaka the impact is particularly acute. Heat currently renders three per cent of annual working hours unworkable – the equivalent of roughly 465,000 full-time jobs every year. By 2080 that figure is projected to more than double, with the capital expected to lose 7.4 per cent of its productive hours.

Garment Sector Faces Multi-Billion-Dollar Risk

Bangladesh’s ready-made garment industry, a cornerstone of the economy and a major employer of women, faces a multi-billion-dollar threat. Analysis cited in the World Bank report, drawing on work by the International Labour Organisation, the International Finance Corporation and Cornell University’s Global Labor Institute, estimates that the apparel sectors of Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam and Cambodia could forgo up to $65.8 billion in export earnings by 2030 if heat stress remains unaddressed. Heat stress in Bangladeshi garment factories has also been linked to higher risks of violence and harassment against women workers unable to meet production quotas.

India, the region’s largest economy, is equally exposed. Separate research shows extreme heat is already extracting a heavy toll. A recent survey of informal workers in cities including Delhi, Ajmer and Agra found outdoor workers in construction, road-laying and brickmaking losing about 24 days of productive work a year due to heat, costing them the equivalent of nearly a tenth of their annual earnings. Indoor workers in garment manufacturing and similar sectors lost roughly 15 days. Extrapolated nationally, heat-related productivity decline and kidney problems linked to chronic dehydration and heat exposure are estimated to cost Indian workers around $78 billion in lost wages annually – nearly two per cent of GDP.

Other studies paint a similar picture. India lost an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours to heat exposure in 2024, with agriculture accounting for roughly two-thirds of the losses and construction about one-fifth. The International Labour Organisation has projected that India could account for 34 million of the 80 million global job losses linked to heat-stress-driven productivity decline by 2030. Some analyses suggest heat stress could put up to 4.5 per cent of India’s GDP at risk by that date.

Informal Workers and Outdoor Labour Bear the Brunt

Across South Asia, informal and outdoor workers – construction labourers, street vendors, rickshaw pullers, farm workers and those in poorly ventilated factories – face the highest risks. They often lack the option to stop work when temperatures soar. In Bangladesh, where informal employment remains high, rickshaw pullers report daily incomes falling sharply during heatwaves as fewer passengers venture out and physical capacity declines. Tin-roofed homes and overcrowded informal settlements intensify the urban heat-island effect, trapping heat even at night and denying workers recovery.

Agriculture remains especially vulnerable. In India, farm workers lost an average of 54 full working days to heat stress in 2024 in one assessment, ranking the country among the worst affected globally for agricultural labour losses. By 2030, outdoor worker capacity could decline by more than 50 per cent in some parts of Asia under continued warming.

Health impacts compound the economic damage. Heat contributed to roughly twice as many deaths in Bangladesh and India in 2023 as in 2000, and nearly four times as many in Sri Lanka, according to Global Burden of Disease data. Chronic exposure is linked to kidney disease, mental-health strains and higher rates of heat-related illness, further eroding labour supply.

A Roadmap for Heat-Resilient Growth

The World Bank report does not merely diagnose the problem; it offers a practical roadmap that can be implemented through existing institutions and financing mechanisms. Key recommendations include investing in heat-resilient infrastructure, strengthening Heat Action Plans, protecting vulnerable workers through labour regulations and workplace adaptations, expanding access to sustainable and passive cooling, improving early-warning systems, and mobilising both public and private investment to build more resilient cities.

Solutions range from green infrastructure and cool roofs to adjusted working hours, shade provision, hydration protocols and better-ventilated buildings. Larger firms are already more likely to invest in cooling and building upgrades, but smaller enterprises and informal workers need targeted support. Passive design measures – orientation, shading, natural ventilation – can deliver significant cooling benefits at low cost and with lower carbon impact than widespread air-conditioning.

The report was prepared with support from the Resilient Asia Program, funded by the UK government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office through its Climate Action for a Resilient Asia programme. It positions heat resilience as essential not only for protecting lives but for maintaining competitiveness in a region whose growth model still relies heavily on labour-intensive sectors.

As temperatures continue to rise, the choice facing South Asian policymakers is clear. Treat extreme heat as a temporary disruption and accept mounting losses in jobs, health and growth, or integrate heat resilience into the core of urban and economic planning. The costs of inaction are already measurable in millions of lost workdays and billions of dollars. The opportunity, the World Bank argues, is to build cities that remain productive, competitive and livable for the hundreds of millions who will call them home in the decades ahead.