A new global assessment warns that without urgent systemic changes, plastic waste could surge dramatically by 2040, straining waste systems, increasing costs, and deepening environmental and public health crises.

Global plastic waste is projected to nearly double by 2040, intensifying environmental pressures and exposing major gaps in waste management systems worldwide, according to a recent report produced by the Pew Charitable Trusts with the support of ICF International and thought partners the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Imperial College London, Systemiq and the University of Oxford.

The findings underscore a worsening trajectory in global plastic consumption and disposal, with experts warning that current policies and recycling efforts are insufficient to contain the scale of the crisis.

Waste Volumes, Mismanagement on the Rise

The report indicates that the proportion of plastic waste that goes uncollected is expected to rise sharply over the next 15 years. Currently estimated at 19 per cent, this share could climb to 34 per cent by 2040, reflecting widening disparities in waste management infrastructure across regions.

This surge comes alongside a broader increase in plastic production and consumption. Global plastic use is projected to grow significantly, with some estimates suggesting production could reach over 700 million tonnes annually by 2040, driven by rising demand in packaging, construction, and consumer goods.

As a result, waste generation is expected to escalate in tandem, with mismanaged plastic – waste that is not properly collected or treated – nearly doubling in volume under a business-as-usual scenario.

Economic Burden to Escalate

The financial implications of this surge are also significant. Annual global costs for collecting and disposing of plastic waste are projected to increase by nearly 30 per cent, reaching an estimated $140 billion by 2040.

This growing burden is expected to fall heavily on governments and municipalities, particularly in developing countries where waste management systems are already under strain. Businesses, too, may face increased regulatory costs and risks linked to plastic use and disposal.

Despite this rising expenditure, the report cautions that improved spending alone will not be enough to address the problem, as systemic inefficiencies and lack of infrastructure continue to hinder effective waste management.

Recycling Alone not Enough

One of the key takeaways from the analysis is that recycling, often promoted as a primary solution, will not be sufficient to tackle the plastic crisis on its own.

Globally, recycling rates remain low, with only a small fraction of plastic waste being effectively processed and reused. Even with projected improvements, recycling capacity is unlikely to keep pace with the rapid growth in plastic production.

Experts argue that a broader shift toward reducing plastic production, redesigning materials, and adopting circular economy models is essential to curb the escalating crisis.

Environmental and Health Risks Intensify

The environmental consequences of rising plastic waste are expected to be severe. Increased leakage of plastic into ecosystems – particularly oceans – could exacerbate biodiversity loss and disrupt food chains.

At the same time, emerging research highlights growing concerns over the health impacts of plastics. Studies suggest that the health burden associated with plastics, including exposure to toxic chemicals and pollution across their lifecycle, could more than double by 2040 if current trends continue.

Plastic pollution is already a major contributor to climate change, with emissions generated throughout its lifecycle – from fossil fuel extraction to disposal – adding to global greenhouse gas levels.

Global Policy Efforts Face Challenges

Efforts to address the crisis at a global level have gained momentum in recent years, with countries negotiating a legally binding international treaty to tackle plastic pollution.

However, progress has been slow, with divisions emerging between countries advocating for limits on plastic production and those favouring downstream solutions such as recycling and waste management.

Analysts warn that without stronger international cooperation and binding commitments, the world is unlikely to meet targets aimed at reducing plastic pollution and transitioning toward sustainable material use.

A Call for Systemic Change

The report ultimately calls for a comprehensive approach that goes beyond incremental improvements. Key recommendations include reducing virgin plastic production, investing in waste management infrastructure, and promoting reuse and alternative materials.

Transitioning to a circular economy – where materials are reused and recycled efficiently – has been identified as a critical pathway to reducing waste and emissions. However, achieving this shift will require coordinated action across governments, industries, and consumers.

Without such measures, the report warns that the world risks locking itself into a future of escalating plastic pollution, rising costs, and mounting environmental and health consequences.

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