Inflation

With the region still recovering from previous shocks, the latest ADB analysis serves as a timely reminder of the region’s exposure to distant geopolitical events.

The world has faced oil shocks before. This one, Birol made clear, is different – deeper, wider and more dangerous. How governments respond in the coming weeks will determine whether the pain remains temporary or becomes a lasting scar on the global economy.

Despite the escalating emergency, the Taliban administration has continually sought to project an image of economic stability. Yet, the stark realities on the ground – shuttered trade routes, skyrocketing grocery bills, and overcrowded malnutrition clinics – tell a vastly different story.

According to the latest integrated food security phase classification (IPC) analysis, approximately 7.5 million people across vulnerable regions are grappling with high levels of food insecurity and malnutrition.

Cereal production for 2025 was revised upward to a record 3,029 million tonnes – a 5.6 per cent leap – bolstered by favourable monsoons in South America and Africa.

The market’s verdict has been swift and unforgiving. Brent crude futures rocketed to $119.50 per barrel – the highest since mid-2022 – while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit $119.48, capping a blistering 25 per cent surge in days.

In a nation where the thali symbolizes sustenance and culture, CRISIL’s barometer isn’t just data; it’s a pulse on equity.

Food security is at stake in a nation self-sufficient in rice production. The unregulated market risks artificial shortages, where hoarding drives spikes despite ample harvests. Without intervention, experts warn of potential vulnerabilities to climate shocks or global disruptions, as the system lacks resilience.