As trade routes close and inflation soars, millions face severe food insecurity and looming famine amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.

A convergence of soaring food costs, prolonged border closures, and a shrinking humanitarian footprint is rapidly worsening the economic hardship faced by millions in Afghanistan. With inflation approaching 10 per cent and critical transit routes effectively choked off, the country is teetering on the brink of a severe hunger crisis. Ordinary Afghans are bearing the brunt of the shock as the cost of basic household staples climbs out of reach. Now, business leaders and international aid organisations are sounding the alarm, warning that without urgent intervention, the country could plunge into a catastrophic famine.

Trade Routes Choked; Traders Under Pressure

At the heart of the current crisis is a severe disruption to Afghanistan’s regional supply chains. Key border crossings with Pakistan, such as Torkham, have remained closed for months due to escalating diplomatic and military tensions between the Taliban and Islamabad. Meanwhile, regional instability in Iran has compromised Afghanistan’s access to the crucial Chabahar port, which had recently served as a vital alternative trade route.

According to Khan Jan Alokozay, a board member of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment (ACCI), these closures are squeezing the market dry. Speaking to the local Amu TV, Alokozay revealed that current food supplies in local markets are only sufficient to last another month or a month and a half.

Compounding the problem is the heavy-handed approach of the de facto authorities. Alokozay warned that Taliban officials have been heavily pressuring local traders to sell basic food items at artificially lower prices despite skyrocketing import costs. “If traders are treated in a way that puts them under pressure and forces them to sell goods cheaply, they will stop importing food items,” he cautioned. “If this situation continues, Afghanistan could move toward famine.” Because essential goods like rice must be imported from other parts of South Asia, the blocked transit corridors through Iran and Pakistan have left importers with few viable options to sustain the nation’s food supply.

Soaring Costs Squeeze Households

For the average Afghan family, these geopolitical tensions translate directly to empty plates. The Taliban-run National Statistics and Information Authority recently acknowledged that inflation has climbed by nearly 10 per cent compared to last year. Healthcare costs have risen by 17 per cent, and vegetable prices have jumped by nearly 30 per cent.

Across local markets, the price shocks are staggering. In Kabul, a sack of rice that previously cost about 2,500 Afghanis ($36) now sells for between 4,200 and 4,500 Afghanis ($60–$64). The price of a sack of flour has climbed to $23, and a five-litre bottle of cooking oil now costs roughly $8.50. Even locally grown produce is not immune; the price of potatoes has surged from 200 to 300 Afghanis for seven kilograms, and tomatoes have effectively doubled in price.

Residents across multiple provinces report an absolute inability to cope with the mounting expenses. In Ghor province, locals noted that the price of milk surged by 20 per cent almost overnight. “The prices of all food items have increased. We have no money, and economic difficulties are growing,” lamented a resident of Badghis province. With rampant unemployment and declining incomes, purchasing power has evaporated, leaving families incapable of meeting their most basic nutritional needs.

A Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

The domestic price hikes are colliding with a devastating reduction in international aid, creating a perfect storm for widespread malnutrition. The United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) and UNICEF estimate that over 17 million Afghans – roughly 40 per cent of the population – are currently facing acute food insecurity as the harsh winter and spring lean seasons compound their misery. Integrated food security assessments categorize millions in the “emergency” phase of hunger.

According to recent humanitarian reports, up to 4.9 million women and children are projected to require urgent treatment for severe acute malnutrition in 2026. However, crippling global funding shortfalls have severely restricted the capacity of relief agencies to respond. The WFP recently announced that it has only enough funding to assist about one million people each month, leaving over eight million vulnerable Afghans entirely without the food assistance they desperately rely on. Nutrition centres are reportedly overcrowded, and agencies are being forced to turn away mothers and children due to a lack of specialized foods.

Furthermore, the mass deportation and return of over 2.5 million Afghan refugees from neighbouring Pakistan and Iran over the past year have placed unprecedented strain on already depleted local resources. These returnees often arrive with no assets, flooding a labour market that is already crippled by widespread joblessness and exacerbating the fierce competition for scarce housing and aid.

Compounding Shocks; Lack of Reserves

Economic analysts are warning that Afghanistan’s fragile economy lacks the resilience to absorb these compounding shocks. Economic expert Sayed Masoud highlights that while a few northern border crossings remain open, they lack the capacity to meet the demands of the entire Afghan market. “With tensions in Iran and the closure of routes with Pakistan, ports such as Gwadar, Karachi, and Chabahar are effectively blocked,” Masoud explained. “Northern routes alone cannot meet Afghanistan’s market needs,” he says. “Strategic reserves must be created urgently.”

Despite the escalating emergency, the Taliban administration has continually sought to project an image of economic stability. Yet, the stark realities on the ground – shuttered trade routes, skyrocketing grocery bills, and overcrowded malnutrition clinics – tell a vastly different story. Without immediate coordinated action to stabilize trade routes, secure international humanitarian funding, and implement viable economic policies, Afghanistan faces a bleak and hungry future. For millions of citizens, the daily struggle to survive is only getting harder.