Lower rainfall expected across parts of the region, but intense downpours, heat and water stress could raise risks.
A below-normal monsoon forecast for parts of Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) in 2026 is not expected to reduce disaster risks, with scientists warning that short bursts of intense rainfall, rising temperatures, and growing water stress could make the season increasingly dangerous.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026, published today, projects lower-than-normal rainfall across several countries, including Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, alongside above-normal temperatures across much of the region.
Despite this, experts caution that the risk of flash floods, landslides and other hazards remains high.
“Even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern,” said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD. “Communities and authorities need to closely follow short-term forecasts and advisories.”
The combination of erratic rainfall and rising temperatures is expected to increase both drought and flood risks during the same season. Long dry spells may be followed by sudden heavy downpours, creating conditions for flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountain areas.
“The outlook points to a drier monsoon overall, but that does not mean lower risk,” Manish Shrestha added. “Short, intense rainfall events can still trigger serious hazards.”
“The outlook gives disaster management authorities a critical window to prepare,” said Navneet Yadav, Team Lead for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Resilience at Palladium India. “Even within a weaker monsoon, short and intense rainfall can still trigger flash floods and landslides in mountain valleys.”
Warmer conditions are also likely to intensify heat stress and reduce water availability. Lower snow persistence at the start of the season further weakens the region’s natural water buffer, making river systems and groundwater recharge more sensitive to rainfall variability.
“Lower snow persistence means the region is entering the monsoon with a reduced seasonal water buffer,” said Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook.
Complicating Disaster Planning
Experts say these combined risks are already complicating disaster planning and response management across South Asia.
“The growing unpredictability of the monsoon is already creating coordination challenges,” said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Water and DRR Lead at ICIMOD. “Preparedness now requires stronger coordination between government, technical agencies, and local authorities.”
The outlook highlights increasing pressure on food production, water resources, and energy systems, as well as heightened vulnerability in both rural and urban areas.
“Erratic rainfall following long dry spells increases the risk of landslides,” said Ranit Chatterjee, CEO of Rika India. “This can worsen socio-economic pressures, including migration, rising food prices, energy stress, and disruptions to tourism.”
Scientists also stress the need for stronger early warning systems and impact-based forecasting.
“Drought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately,” said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Senior Adviser at ICIMOD. “Early warning systems, short-term forecasts, and locally driven preparedness need to work together to address increasingly complex hazards.”
With climate variability increasing, experts warn that preparing for a single type of hazard is no longer sufficient.
“The era of preparing for a single, predictable hazard is over,” said Saswata Sanyal, DRR specialist at ICIMOD. “Anticipatory action and early warning must now be the foundation.”
The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 is based on forecasts from multiple global and regional climate models and is intended to support governments, disaster management agencies, and communities in planning and preparedness ahead of the June–September monsoon season.
