Only a fraction of Paris Agreement parties submitted new pledges by September 2025, UNEP says. Global warming projections dipped marginally to 2.3–2.5°C, mostly from methodological tweaks and US withdrawal, not bolder ambition.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has found that fewer than one-third of the countries party to the Paris Agreement submitted updated climate commitments by the end of September 2025. Published on 4 November 2025, the new assessment underscores that global warming projections have edged down only marginally despite the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
According to the latest release, global average temperature rise this century – assuming full implementation of the new pledges – is now projected at between 2.3 °C and 2.5 °C, compared with 2.6 °C to 2.8 °C in last year’s estimate.
But UNEP stresses that most of that improvement stems not from substantial new ambition but from methodological tweaks (0.1 °C) and the impending withdrawal of the United States (also around 0.1 °C).
Ambition Gap Remains Large
The report – quoted from its title “Off Target” – reveals the world remains far off track from the Paris goal of limiting warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to stay under 1.5 °C.
Only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement, representing about 63 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions, had either submitted or announced new mitigation targets for 2035 by 30 September 2025. Even with full implementation of these pledges, emissions in 2035 would be reduced by only about 15 per cent from 2019 levels – well short of the 35 per cent needed for a 2 °C pathway and 55 per cent for a 1.5 °C path.
Overshoot of 1.5 °C Nearly Inevitable
UNEP warns that the multi-decadal average temperature rise will exceed 1.5 °C, likely within the next decade, unless near-term drastic cuts are made.
While a temporary overshoot might still be managed, it would require extremely steep reductions in emissions and massive reliance on carbon-dioxide removal methods – which remain uncertain and risky.
The assessment emphasises that the mere submission of new NDCs is not enough – actual policy, investment and action must follow. While the projections above assume full implementation of new pledges, current policy trajectories still aim for up to 2.8 °C of warming – down from 3.1 °C last year.
Furthermore, global greenhouse-gas emissions rose 2.3 per cent in 2024 to 57.7 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent. To align with the 2 °C pathway, emissions would need to fall by 25 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030; for 1.5 °C they would need to fall by 40 per cent. The five-year window left is described as “increasingly tight.”
Technology & Solutions Exist – But Political Will Lags
UNEP points out that many of the necessary low-carbon technologies are already available and cost-competitive: renewables such as solar and wind are booming and deployment costs are falling. The report notes that temperature predictions have fallen from 3–3.5 °C since the Paris Agreement’s adoption, meaning some progress has been made.
Yet, translating technological potential into real-world emissions cuts requires strong political leadership, massive climate finance flows to developing countries, and a redesign of international financial architecture. Geopolitical headwinds and rising global emissions in major emitters are cited as key barriers. For example, emissions in G20 countries rose by 0.7 per cent in 2024.
Why the Marginal Gains?
UNEP’s commentary makes clear that the small drop in the projected temperature rise reflects not a surge in ambition, but rather other factors: methodology changes and country withdrawal. “The new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle,” the assessment says.
Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, states: “While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough… an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”
Meanwhile, António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, warns that starting in the early 2030s the world is likely to cross 1.5 °C unless urgent action is taken.
What Can Be Done Now?
UNEP outlines a “rapid mitigation action from 2025” scenario: under this path, emissions in 2030 must fall by 26 per cent and by 46 per cent in 2035 compared with 2019 levels – to limit the overshoot to about 0.3 °C and return to 1.5 °C by 2100 with ~66 per cent probability.
It stresses that every fraction of a degree avoided matters – reducing risks of tipping points, extreme weather, and irreversible impacts – and cuts reliance on carbon removal technologies that would need to permanently store around five years’ worth of current global emissions for each 0.1 °C of overshoot.
For emerging economies and the Global South, the report emphasises equity and justice: rapid emissions reductions must come alongside energy access, resilience building and economic growth. The challenge is greatest in countries with fewer resources and higher vulnerability to climate impacts. And while collective global targets matter, national action – implementation – will determine outcomes.
The new figures from UNEP show a world that is inching forward but not nearly climbing fast enough. The revised global warming estimate of 2.3–2.5 °C is technically lower than before, but in practical terms the needle has barely budged.
The window to keep the 1.5 °C goal alive is narrowing rapidly. As UNEP warns, this is no time for complacency. The tools are ready and the science is clear – what is missing is the collective will, speed and scale of action.
Image: Hippopx
