Agriculturally intensive plains, particularly Punjab and Haryana, stand among the weakest in environmental capacity due to shrinking forest cover and alarming groundwater extraction rates.

India’s efforts to secure climate-resilient food systems have taken a significant step forward according to a new assessment by the ICAR–National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NIAP), which maps resilience levels across the country’s 14 agro-climatic zones. The study, based on 26 environmental, technological, socio-economic and institutional indicators, concludes that resilience to climate stress varies sharply across regions – demanding tailored interventions rather than one-size-fits-all policymaking.

A Composite Climate Resilience Index

Researchers compiled indicators ranging from rainfall deviations and groundwater extraction to crop diversification, literacy, farm credit and institutional access. Using district-level data, the values were standardised and aggregated using weighted scores derived from Principal Component Analysis. A Climate Resilient Agriculture (CRA) Index was constructed for each agro-climatic zone as well as 616 districts, ranking them into high, medium and low resilience categories.

The index does not measure absolute resilience but relative capacity to withstand climate stress. This means a region classified as ‘high resilience’ is only stronger compared to other regions, not necessarily shielded from climate risks.

Fragile Plains Versus Forested Hills

Environmental indicators show a story of extremes. Zones with strong forest cover – such as the Eastern and Western Himalayan regions, Eastern Plateau and Hills and West Coast Plains – rank high in ecosystem resilience. Meanwhile, agriculturally intensive plains, particularly Punjab and Haryana, stand among the weakest in environmental capacity due to shrinking forest cover and alarming groundwater extraction rates.

Rainfall volatility compounds vulnerabilities. Western and Middle Gangetic Plains recorded the highest rainfall deviations between 1991–2015, while arid western regions face expanding wastelands and depleted water tables. In contrast, north-eastern states and coastal belts benefit from natural buffers, though they are not immune to extreme weather shocks.

Indo-Gangetic Plains Lead, Plateaus Lag

Technology-linked indicators reveal that farming systems across the Indo-Gangetic Plains – covering Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal – possess high resilience due to irrigation access, cropping intensity and food grain productivity. Fertiliser use, livestock density and cultivated area also favour these zones.

However, this technological advantage stands in sharp contrast with plateau and hill systems, where irrigation access remains patchy and fertiliser use is constrained by terrain and farm size. The Himalayan region and Western Dry Zone are among the weakest performers technologically, underscoring a development gap that parallels environmental stress.

Prosperous Coasts, Excluded Hinterlands

Socio-economic indicators demonstrate that coastal states stand ahead on human development, literacy and access to non-farm income sources. The West Coast Plains and Trans-Gangetic Plains show the strongest socio-economic resilience, benefiting from diversified economies and higher literacy.

But the picture shifts in India’s heartland. Poverty remains entrenched in many districts of the Lower and Middle Gangetic Plains and Eastern Plateau and Hills – zones where millions remain dependent on small rain-fed farms. Primary sector share in GDP is high, reflecting limited industrial growth, and population density increases exposure to climate vulnerability.

Institutional and infrastructure indicators highlight an even deeper divide. Western and coastal regions possess better road networks, electrification, banking presence, market access and agricultural technical support. Meanwhile, parts of the Himalayan belt and Gangetic zones lag behind, with negligible crop insurance enrolment, weak market linkages and lower penetration of rural credit.

Pockets of Strength and Alarming Blind Spots

Combining all dimensions, the CRA Index reveals a nuanced national picture. Western coastal and Gujarat zones, southern plateau regions and the Trans-Gangetic Plains rank high overall. Central plateau and several hill regions fall in the medium category, indicating mixed resilience. The lowest composite resilience scores are concentrated in the north-east, middle Gangetic belt and western dry zone – areas where environmental stress meets weak infrastructure and limited economic buffers.

The district-level mapping exposes further disparities. Even within ‘strong’ zones, large pockets significantly underperform, meaning resilience is unevenly distributed and cannot be addressed solely through state-level strategies.

Policy Significance: Localised Action, Not Generic Targets

The findings carry major implications for agricultural planning and climate adaptation financing. By identifying which zones are least equipped to absorb droughts, floods or temperature extremes, policymakers can design targeted interventions – such as insurance expansion in eastern India, irrigation investment in plateau regions, or livelihood diversification in flood-prone plains.

The study also supports the alignment of climate adaptation with India’s Sustainable Development Goal commitments, particularly those addressing poverty, food security, and rural livelihoods. Crucially, it adds empirical clarity to a policy field often dominated by broad national averages that mask intra-regional vulnerabilities.

Bridging Science and Farmer Realities

Researchers underline that resilience is not static. As climate impacts intensify, even today’s high-performing zones may slip into weakness unless supported by long-term planning, technology expansion, and institutional reform. Future assessments will require better localised data and stronger monitoring systems to capture rapid changes on the ground.

What emerges unambiguously is that India’s climate challenge is not monolithic. Resilience varies by soil, water, institutions, education and farmers’ access to economic tools. Tackling this uneven landscape will require coordinated interventions – from state governments and research bodies to markets and communities – backed by sustained investment and policy resolve.

The study was led by Naveen P Singh and his scientist colleagues –Bhawna Ahuja, S K Srivastava, K V Rao, S K Bal and N R Kumar