Without decisive action, millions of Afghan returnees risk being trapped in a cycle of poverty, homelessness and instability – undermining prospects for peace and development in one of the world’s most protracted humanitarian crises.

A staggering majority of Afghans returning from Iran, Pakistan and other neighbouring countries are struggling to find livelihoods, shelter and basic services as they attempt to rebuild lives in a country beset by economic collapse, climate shocks and deteriorating humanitarian conditions, the United Nations and International Organization for Migration (IOM) warn.

Latest figures show that only 11 per cent of returning Afghan migrants have secured employment, leaving millions without stable income or prospects for integration.

The grim employment statistic, highlighted by both Afghan and international media reports, underscores how weak labour markets and limited economic opportunities are compounding an already dire humanitarian situation for returnees. Most returnees arrive with little savings, no formal documentation, and few prospects in regions where jobs are scarce and poverty is widespread.

Returnee Numbers Soar Amid Deportations and Economic Strain

Since 2023, millions of Afghan migrants have been returning to Afghanistan from neighbouring countries, predominantly Iran and Pakistan. According to IOM data, more than 2.3 million people returned in 2025 alone, many without any savings or possessions. A significant number of these returns are linked to increased deportations by host states tightening immigration controls, leaving many families with no choice but to come back to a homeland they left years or decades earlier.

In 2024, Afghanistan saw close to a million returns from Iran over a three-month period, with a majority arriving undocumented. In addition, Pakistan continued to expel thousands of Afghan nationals throughout late 2025 as authorities enforced stricter measures against undocumented migrants.

Despite these mass returns, employment opportunities remain painfully limited. With only about one in nine returnees able to find work, families are forced to rely on dwindling savings, informal labour, or humanitarian assistance just to survive. This statistic is especially stark considering Afghanistan’s broader economic breakdown: GDP has contracted, humanitarian aid has fallen sharply, and poverty rates have surged.

A Shelter Crisis and Lack of Identity Documents

Employment woes are mirrored by an equally troubling shelter crisis, with one in four returnees lacking adequate housing upon arrival. Many families are forced into overcrowded tents, makeshift camps or shelters that offer little protection from harsh weather conditions.

Compounding this problem, more than half of returning Afghans do not possess official identification or civil documents – such as citizenship cards or national identities – that are required to access formal services, open bank accounts, register for jobs, or enrol children in school. Without these essential documents, reintegration becomes not only difficult but in many cases impossible.

The lack of documentation also restricts returnees’ access to healthcare and other critical services, placing additional strain on families already reeling from displacement and poverty. A separate IOM survey found that lack of employment support and unstable work environments are among the top barriers preventing successful reintegration for returnees throughout the country.

Women, Children and Rural Returnees Hit Hardest

Experts and aid organisations emphasise that women, girls and rural returnees are disproportionately affected by these challenges. The UNDP’s recent report, From Return to Rebuild, highlights how settlement in already impoverished eastern and northern districts has intensified competition for scarce jobs, water, healthcare and education – especially for women and children.

In rural areas, where about three-quarters of returnee households reside, job opportunities are often limited to subsistence farming or low-wage informal work, neither of which offer reliable income. This has driven many families into debt and forced them to adopt negative coping strategies – such as reducing meals, selling assets, and withdrawing children from school – just to survive.

Afghan women returnees face additional barriers due to restrictions on mobility and limited legal protections. Observers warn that without targeted interventions, these women are at heightened risk of poverty, exploitation and social exclusion – factors that undermine community stability and long-term development.

Humanitarian Response Overstretched and Underfunded

The IOM and other humanitarian agencies have been scaling up their response at border points and reception centres, providing initial assistance such as cash support, food, and basic protection services. However, these efforts remain insufficient to meet the growing needs of returnees, particularly as international aid continues to decline.

Foreign aid to Afghanistan has fallen by an estimated 40 per cent over the past two years, resulting in cuts to critical support programmes that could help returnees transition to independent livelihoods. The consequences are especially severe for children and women, with malnutrition rates rising and access to essential services dwindling.

Humanitarian appeals, including IOM’s integrated response plan for Afghan returnees, call for urgent funding to scale up support for shelter, livelihoods, and protection. Yet, donor fatigue and geopolitical shifts have left many programmes under-resourced, forcing agencies to prioritise emergency needs while long-term recovery programmes languish.

The Risk of Secondary Displacement

Analysts warn that without sustainable employment opportunities, adequate shelter and comprehensive reintegration support, many returnees may be forced into secondary displacement – either back across borders or deeper into internal migration within Afghanistan.

This risk is heightened by pervasive debt and persistent poverty that affect returnee households across the country. In western provinces, unemployment rates for returnees are estimated to be between 80 per cent and 95 per cent, while debt affects nearly nine in ten households nationwide.

A Call for International and Domestic Action

United Nations agencies, Afghan civil society and international partners are calling for a coordinated strategy that includes investment in job creation, vocational training, land access and documentation support, alongside measures to enhance women’s participation in the workforce. Such interventions could not only improve returnees’ prospects but also strengthen host communities that are struggling under the added pressures of population influx.

“Return can become an opportunity for stronger, more resilient communities,” notes the UNDP, but only if international support is scaled up and barriers to employment and services are removed for all returnees.

Without decisive action, millions of Afghan returnees risk being trapped in a cycle of poverty, homelessness and instability – undermining prospects for peace and development in one of the world’s most protracted humanitarian crises.