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    Nepal’s Geopolitical Stakes Are As High As The Himalayas

    East Asia Forum
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    Nepal’s Geopolitical Stakes Are As High As The Himalayas

    Nepal occupies a crucial geostrategic location in SouthAsia – sandwiched between powerful and competing neighbours in India and China, outstripping the Himalayan nation in size, population, economy and military might. Yet it is one of the few countries that has remained independent throughout history. Maintaining that independence is now just that much more challenging.

    By Gaurab Shumsher Thapa

    Geopolitical realities necessitate maintaining a fine balance in Nepal’s relations with its immediate neighbours. Relations with India are deeply embedded in historical, cultural, socio-economic, religious and familial ties. The open border arrangement between the two countries eases the flow of people and goods. But politically, India and Nepal have seen ups and downs. Although Nepal and China also share historic relations, the bilateral relations are more focused on political and economic issues rather than people-to-people exchanges. Still, China has greatly increased its influence in Nepal over the past decade. The United States is also now one of Nepal’s most important development partners.

    In the 18th century, King Prithvi Narayan Shah labelled Nepal a ‘yam between two boulders’. With a third ‘boulder’ in the United States now showing keen interest in the country, Nepal needs to avoid entanglement in big power rivalry and ensure that its foreign policy remains oriented to its own national interests.

    Relations with the first ‘boulder’, India, appeared to rapidly accelerate — after a long and sometimes tumultuous history — in the 2010s. After coming to power in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed his ‘neighbourhood-first’ policy. His visit to Nepal only three months after taking office was the first by an Indian prime minister in 17 years, raising hopes of better ties between the two countries. The optimism was reinforced by India’s immediate humanitarian relief within hours of a massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck Nepal in April 2015.

    Belt and road initiative

    But Modi’s reputation in the Himalayas quickly crumbled as Delhi pressured Nepali leaders to delay the promulgation of a new Constitution in September 2015. When Kathmandu did not capitulate, India imposed an ‘undeclared’ economic blockade on Nepal. Then in 2020, Nepal’s then-prime minister KP Sharma Oli published a map encompassing the disputed territories of Kalapani, Lipulek, and Limpiyadhura — which are claimed by Nepal but controlled by India — in response to India’s construction of a road in the area.

    The second ‘boulder’ has also sought to increase engagements with Nepal in recent years. China’s top priority in Nepal is concern about anti-China activities, more particularly that the United States, in conjunction with India, might use Nepal’s geostrategic location to contain it.

    China directed US$188 million in foreign direct investment to Nepal in fiscal year 2020–21, more than any other country. Nepal and China also signed a transit transport agreement for third-country trade during Oli’s visit to Beijing in 2016. This was a historic move that ended Nepal’s exclusive reliance on India for transit trade. It was also a response to the Indian blockade of 2015. Nepal then became a signatory to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in May 2017, although no tangible progress has been made on earmarked projects, including a railway link that would connect Kathmandu with Kerung in Tibet.

    In the first visit by a Chinese president in 23 years, Xi Jinping visited Kathmandu in October 2019. His declaration that China would help turn Nepal into a land-linked state instead of a landlocked one had geopolitical resonance. COVID-19 also presented an opportunity for China to leverage vaccine diplomacy in Nepal. But while China–Nepal ties have publicly gained traction, Beijing’s desire to maintain unity among the communist parties of Nepal has not gone unnoticed.

    MCC in Nepal

    The most recent ‘boulder’ to arrive on the scene — the United States — extended economic aid to Nepal first in 1951 and is now one of its most important development partners. Nepal signed a US$500 million grant agreement with the United States under the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) in September 2017 to develop the country’s electrical transmission lines and road network. This deal has both domestic and geopolitical complexities attached to it, and there was heated debate over the compact until it was finally approved by parliament in late February 2022.

    Detractors of the MCC deal claim that certain provisions of the agreement infringed Nepal’s constitution. Critics saw it as a part of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy that aims to contain China and argued that it would make Nepal a pawn on the region’s geopolitical chessboard.

    The ruling coalition — the Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center), and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) among others — did not have a unified position on the issue. While the Nepali Congress, led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, strongly advocated MCC’s parliamentary approval, his coalition partners were less enthusiastic and only approved a conditional agreement. Several fringe leftist and rightist parties launched public demonstrations against the deal.

    In the run-up to the February 2022 tabling of the MCC agreement in parliament, the United States and China engaged in a war of words accusing each other of using undiplomatic means to influence Nepal in the matter. The geopolitical wrangling saw Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issue a statement that asserted the sovereign right of Nepal to decide on what development aid it needed in the best interests of the country. After a lot of political wrangling, the government came up with an ‘interpretative declaration’ for the MCC compact clarifying their position on the matter and it was finally ratified by the parliament on 27 February 2022.

    Panchsheel

    As the adage goes, ‘geography does not argue, it simply is’. Nepal’s location defines its situation. China does not want an increased US presence in Nepal. The United States thinks Chinese influence on Nepal’s democracy and development is malign. India does not want either to threaten or undermine its own leverage over Nepal’s affairs.

    As a landlocked country with a weak economy that is caught between these three powers, how can Nepal set a viable independent foreign policy?

    Despite geographical and cultural proximity, Nepal–India relations have been marked by a trust deficit in recent years. To reverse the trend, Nepal needs better economic engagement with India. Regarding China, Nepal has always supported the ‘One China’ policy. Nepal needs to carefully prioritise projects under the BRI that are in its national interests and avoid being led into excessive debt. Nepal’s engagement with the United States should focus on economic development, and carefully avoid being part of any strategy that threatens the security of its immediate neighbours.

    Nepal can use its geostrategic location to its advantage in maintaining good relations with its partners as none are willing to lose Nepal to the others. The geopolitical stakes are bound to increase in Nepal’s periphery in the coming years.

    It will always be difficult for Nepal to balance its foreign policy options. But the policy of non-alignment and adherence to Panchsheel (five principles of peaceful coexistence) are enshrined in Nepal’s constitution, and they are suited to safeguarding Nepal’s sovereignty while promoting its development. Staying out of others’ arguments will keep the ‘yam’ safe from the ‘boulders’.

     

    Gaurab Shumsher Thapa is President and Managing Director of the Nepal Forum of International Relations Studies – Nepal FIRST

    This article has been sourced from the East Asia Forum of the Australian National University

    Image: Hippopx – A fog dims the other end of a suspension bridge

    Afghanistan’s Salaried Citizens Allowed To Withdraw Their Salaries

    OWSA Contributor
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    Afghanistan’s Salaried Citizens Allowed To Withdraw Their Salaries

    Afghanistan’s central bank, Da Afghanistan Bank, on Thursday lifted restrictions on salaried people withdrawing their salaries.

    The central bank had imposed restrictions in the face of stiff economic conditions in the country after the Taliban took over government in August 2021.

    Salary-earning individuals were allowed to only withdraw only 30,000 Afs per week from their savings in banks, according to the orders of the country’s central bank.

    A Central Bank spokesperson said that the decision to lift the restrictions on withdrawing funds from bank accounts was based on strategic considerations.

    “Da Afghanistan Bank, based on strategic planning for the banking and financial sector and considering resources, canceled the existing restrictions on the salaries of government and non-government employees, and therefore all banks must pay out the entire salaries of government and non-government employees based on their demands without any delay,” the spokesman said.

    The fall of the former government has come with severe challenges to the country’s banking system.

    The decision has led to a spurt in the withdrawals and communication late evening suggested that banks were not able to keep up with the demand.

    “People wish to withdraw money because there is uncertainty,” a staff of a humanitarian agency told OWSA. “Common people also need the money for day-to-day expenses, especially with Eid arriving in another couple of weeks.”

    Interestingly, Thursday’s move to allow people to withdraw their money from the banks also coincided with a publicity campaign the central bank undertook to convey to people about the safety of their money in their own bank accounts.

    Business unhappy

    The move was not unexpected. An aid package of US$ 570 million had arrived a week earlier from the World Bank. Afghan officials had then expressed their optimism that the aid would help circulation of money in the markets.

    The current Taliban-led Afghan government is not recognised by most governments across the world, with the UN system remaining the most important link for aid – humanitarian assistance and funding, alike.

    However, the central bank’s decision to allow only salaried people to withdraw their money has caused resentment among businessmen. There are still limits on businessmen withdrawing of money from their bank accounts, especially because business cannot invest money on exports and imports.

     

    Image: Grab from Da Afghanistan Bank promotion video 

    Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 Variants, Not More Severe or Transmissible, So Far: WHO

    OWSA Contributor
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    Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 Variants, Not More Severe or Transmissible, So Far: WHO

    Yet, the WHO has warned that lower numbers of COVID-19 cases or deaths reported is not reason to assume that the risks are lower, as the coronavirus continues to evolve.

    The latest Omicron sub-lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, have been reported in a number of countries, including South Africa and some European nations, according to Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, lead epidemiologist with the World Health Organisation (WHO).

    “There are less than 200 sequences available so far and we expect this to change…We are tracking (the virus) very closely to see if there is any uptick in case detection, but (so far) we haven’t seen any change in epidemiology or severity”, she highlighted.

    In essence, as the coronavirus which causes COVID-19 continues to evolve, we cannot afford to ‘lose sight’ of the changes. The warning is that lower case numbers and deaths do not necessarily mean ‘lower risk’.

    Last week saw the lowest number of COVID-19 deaths since the early days of the pandemic. Yet, some countries continue to witness ‘serious spikes’ putting pressure on hospitals.

    “Our ability to monitor trends is compromised as testing has significantly reduced”, the UN World Health Organization’s (WHO) director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told journalists in Geneva. He reiterated that higher testing and sequencing rates are vital for scientists to track existing variants and to identify new ones as they emerge.

    “At present there are a number of Omicron sub-lineages we’re following closely, including BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 and another recombinant detected, made up of BA.1 and BA.2”, he said.

    Can’t lose sight of the virus

    WHO’s director of emergencies, Michael Ryan, warned that as the virus continues to evolve, the world “cannot simply afford to lose sight of it”.

    “It would be very short-sighted at this point to assume that lower numbers of cases mean absolute lower risks. We are pleased to see deaths dropping but this virus has surprised us before, it has caught us off guard before.

    “We need to do our jobs and track this virus the best we can, while people go back to live their lives as normally as possible”, Dr. Ryan explained.

    Meanwhile, WHO’s lead scientist Dr. Soumiya Swaminathan, warned that sub-lineages and recombinants will continue to appear, and the world must continue investing in improved tools such as new vaccines.

    “We have to be prepared for the possibility that this virus can change so much that it might be able to evade existing immunity”, she said.

    Still an emergency

    Tedros emphasised that currently, the virus remains deadly, especially for the unprotected and unvaccinated that don’t have access to health care and antivirals.

    “The best way to protect yourself is to get vaccinated and boosted when recommended. Continue wearing masks – especially in crowded indoor spaces. And for the indoors, keep the air fresh by opening windows and doors, and invest in good ventilation”, he urged.

    This week, the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee – which evaluates the global state of the situation with COVID-19– unanimously agreed that the pandemic remains a public health emergency of international concern.

    “Far from being the time to drop our guard, this is the moment to work even harder to save lives”, Tedros said, citing the Committee’s decision.

    The WHO chief said that this means making sure that COVID-19 tools are equitably distributed and simultaneously strengthening health systems.

    “Bridging the vaccine equity gap is the best way to boost population immunity and insulate against future waves”, he highlighted.

    He also emphasised the need for a new pandemic treaty.

    “A new pandemic accord is our best collective defence against known virus’s and of course the next disease X,” he said.

     

    Image: Wikimedia

    Climate Change a Major Threat to Global Health, says WHO

    SciDevNet
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    Climate Change a Major Threat to Global Health, says WHO

    Annually, 3.5 million people across the WHO Western Pacific Region die from avoidable environmental causes such as air pollution, extreme weather events or waterborne diseases. 

    By Neena Bhandari

    Climate change poses a serious threat to human health that calls for urgent action and global collaboration on scales seen in the COVID-19 response, says the World Health Organization (WHO).

    “If we don’t take action today on planet health, we are putting our future health at risk. And when health is at risk, everything is at risk. That’s what we have learned from COVID-19,” said Takeshi Kasai, WHO regional director for the Western Pacific Region .

    “Climate crisis is also a health crisis since climate change affects health in many different ways,” Kasai said, emphasising the need to build sustainable, climate-resilient health systems.

    Annually, 3.5 million people across the WHO Western Pacific Region die from avoidable environmental causes such as air pollution, extreme weather events or waterborne diseases; and every 14 seconds a person dies from air pollution in the region. High levels of air pollution are also leading to a rise in non-communicable diseases, including strokes and heart and lung diseases.

    The impact of climate change on human health is most vivid in the small Pacific Island developing countries, which have the smallest carbon footprint. Each year, these countries make up two-thirds of the countries globally that suffer the highest relative losses from environmental disasters, according to the WHO.

    Bend not break

    The third instalment of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report released on 4 April shows that limiting warming to around 2 degrees Celsius still requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025, and be reduced by a quarter by 2030. The IPCC report focuses on cutting emissions and sets out viable options in every sector that can keep the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius alive.

    “Currently the health sector makes up around five per cent of the global climate footprint and we can do better,” said Fiji’s Minister for Health and Medical Services, Ifereimi Waqainabete, at the event.

    Waqainabete said the health sector can play a leading role by reducing its own emissions and having effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to deal with the health impacts of the changing climate.

    Fiji was one of the first countries in the world to release its own national guidelines for climate-resilient, environmentally sustainable healthcare facilities. “This is guiding our interventions to strengthen and reduce our environmental footprint across key areas: water, sanitation, hygiene, air pollution, energy infrastructure, technology and the health workforce,” Waqainabete added.

    Speaking at the WHO event, Renzo Guinto, a physician and public health specialist from the Philippines said, “We need healthcare that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change, that bends without breaking, with a ready workforce and stable supplies as we must be the last sector standing when climate disaster strikes.”

    250,000 more deaths

    While the Philippines faces increasingly serious health risks as the climate crisis worsens, the measures being undertaken do not address slow onset climatic impacts, said Renato Redentor Constantino, executive director of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities.

    Constantino cited WHO projections that the mean annual temperature in the Philippines could rise by about 3.7 degrees Celsius during 1990—2100 in a high-emissions scenario. “The projected increase in heat indices means that there will be an increasingly severe and regular thermal impact on labour, particularly affecting those working in agriculture, contractual arrangements without health care coverage and informal urban services and enterprises.”

    “Higher temperatures will worsen land and water scarcity, flooding conditions, drought and displacement, all of which severely affect agricultural production, which in turn will cause more breakdowns in food systems,” Constantino said, adding that rising heat will also increase hypertensive levels among women.

    Despite the urgency, the progress in achieving the climate targets is being impeded. “The fundamental challenge is how to move beyond the rhetoric and take actual practical action. The key to that is understanding that action isn’t just needed, but action is also possible,” Mark Jacobs, Pacific technical support director and WHO representative for the South Pacific, told SciDev.Net.

    “We don’t need to optimistically wait for someone else to come up with a big solution to this. We can and should all be taking our own steps to reduce our own contribution to climate change as individuals, as families, as communities and as countries,” Jacobs added.

    Under a business-as-usual scenario, it is estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change will cause an additional 250,000 deaths annually.

    “By putting health and equity at the centre of climate policymaking, governments can deliver policies that garner widespread support and maximise returns on investment,” Jeni Miller, executive director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, said in a media release.

    “Policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions can also deliver cleaner air and water, healthier diets, more liveable cities, and transportation systems designed to benefit the health and wellbeing of people,” Miller added.

     

    This piece has been sourced from SciDev.Net

     

    Image: UNICEF

    Can the Upcoming WHO Pandemic Treaty Negotiations be Immunised Against Profiteers?

    OWSA Contributor
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    Can the Upcoming WHO Pandemic Treaty Negotiations be Immunised Against Profiteers?

    In a letter written to the WHO, civil society leaders have urged the global health body to ensure equity, transparency and accountability during public hearings.

    Limited public hearings are now in progress for the proposed WHO global accord on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response (pandemic treaty). In negotiation since February, the process is already raising significant concerns, not least of which is who is allowed to offer substantive input and how will the treaty negotiation harmonize with the WHO review of the existing vehicle for addressing health emergencies, including pandemics. More than 200 civil society organizations (CSOs), health experts, and lawmakers are appealing to the International Negotiating Body Members (INB) and negotiators to shift course without delay.

    At stake, civil society claims, is history repeating itself. Millions of deaths. Staggering health care costs. Livelihoods decimated. Widespread and severe illness. All thanks in large part to a “lack of international cooperation” and failure to fully recognize “the inherent injustice and structural inequities exacerbated by such crises”—crises that cannot be properly addressed by a purely biomedical approach, if future pandemics are to be avoided.

    In their letter, signatories are calling for the INB to inoculate the process against the “undue influence of the private sector and its powerful lobbyists.” Commercial interests and their proxies have prevented publicly-funded vaccines from reaching millions in need. They’ve used the pandemic crisis to advance the privatization of healthcare, often with support from international development circles. And the tobacco industry’s ownership of pharmaceutical corporations is already providing a potential back door for perpetrators of another global health crisis to influence how pandemics are governed into the future. Yet WHO leadership insists on  embracing a “multistakeholder model” in this treaty making process, inviting such conflicted commercial interests to sit at the table as “relevant stakeholders.”

    ‘Whole of Society’ approach?

    Organisations have pointed out that the WHO Director-General’s repeated reference to negotiations inspired by a “whole-of-society” approach – adding that “it is not easy to comprehend what this soothing locution really means”.

    “For several years now the WHO has opened its doors to philanthropic organizations, transnational corporations and their proxies, and has invited them into policy spaces under the guise of “stakeholders”,” they had said.

    “We are at the treaty’s first fork in the road. Will negotiators go down a path that allows big, vested interests to steer the process? Or will Member States’ delegates establish the primacy of human rights and indispensable safeguards against corporate political interference?” said Ashka Naik, research director for Corporate Accountability.

    Both the WHO and the INB claim to be looking to the precedents of the WHO’s only other treaty as guidepost, the breakthrough Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Not only does the FCTC have strict provisions and guidelines on conflicts of interest, its negotiations have long involved broad and consistent civil society participation. This despite the tobacco industry’s attempts to ensure otherwise in the early 2000’s. As the letter notes, “the limited transparency on the INB process so far is reason for serious concern.” Details for the public hearings, including times, procedures, and other key issues, were only made available last week. Those who are selected for “substantive” oral testimony have no more than two minutes to speak, while written, “open-ended” submissions are limited to no more than 250-words.

    Just a checked box?

    “Public hearings are welcome, but we fear they may amount to little more than a checked box. Broad, substantive civil society participation needs to be an enduring and a vital part of the process, not a one-off,” said Nicoletta Dentico, co-chair of the Geneva Global Health Hub (G2H2).

    “What’s more, the elements of the treaty must be selected based on a coherent ex-ante vision of what countries realistically need to prevent and prepare for future pandemics, rather than a lengthy shopping list of elements hastily provided in a few weeks”.

    Another primary concern raised in the CSO letter is around the international community’s ongoing neglect of the “interconnected dynamics” contributing to pandemics. For example, “unsustainable food production and livestock breeding, wildlife trading, resource intensive lifestyles and consumption systems” cause and exacerbate global pandemics. The very model for providing health care is similarly fundamental to the treaty’s aspirations.

    “Discussing the strategy for the prevention and preparedness for future pandemics entails, among many other radical decisions in the economic governance of the world, a clear uncompromising option for universal and public health systems in countries,” said Giulia Grillo, Italy’s former minister of health. “This is the only reliable barrier to safeguard a society when an outbreak emerges, and it must be supported financially, with no hesitation, for the public interest.”

    These concerns are being raised at this week’s hearings. The World Health Assembly presents the next vital juncture for the nascent treaty in late May. Draft treaty language is anticipated in September.

    Drugged Water: A New Global Pandemic Hiding in Plain Sight?

    Inter Press Service
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    Drugged Water: A New Global Pandemic Hiding in Plain Sight?

    A recent study on pharmaceutical pollution of the world’s rivers concluded that higher levels of antibiotic-resistant pathogens were found in low- to middle-income countries and were associated with areas with poor wastewater and waste management infrastructure and pharmaceutical manufacturing.

    By Baher Kamal

    People around the world are unknowingly being exposed to water laced with antibiotics, which could spark the rise of drug-resistant pathogens and potentially fuel another global pandemic, warns a new report.

    The study, elaborated by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), found that, globally, not enough attention is being focused on the threat posed by antimicrobial resistance with most antibiotics being excreted into the environment via toilets or through open defecation.

    Already in 2015, 34.8 billion daily doses of antibiotics were consumed, with up to 90 percent of them excreted into the environment as active substances. Since then the amount of daily consumed antibiotics has been increasing considerably.

    Pharmaceutical pollution drugs antimicrobial pathogen water sanitation sewage treatment Environment health

    Wastewater

    While 80 per cent of wastewater in the world is not treated, even in developed countries treatment facilities are often unable to filter out dangerous bugs.

    Untreated wastewater could breed superbugs that can evade modern medicine and trigger a pandemic, the report’s authors warned.

    In 2019, antibiotic-resistant infections were linked to the deaths of nearly 5 million people. Without immediate action, those infections could cause up to 10 million deaths per year by 2050, the report found.

    “Another pandemic is hiding in plain sight,” the report said. “The consequences of the continuing development and spread of antimicrobial resistance could be catastrophic.”

    According to a study, Pharmaceutical manufacturing facility discharges can substantially increase the pharmaceutical load to U.S. wastewaters – drug manufacturing facilities are a source of environmental pollution.

    “Wastewater treatment plants are unable to filter out chemical compounds used to manufacture personal care products and drugs, so these chemicals seep into freshwater systems and into the oceans.”

    Birguy Lamizana, Programme Management Officer at UN Environment and expert on wastewater and ecosystems, explains that modern wastewater treatment plants mostly reduce solids and bacteria by oxidising the water. They were not designed to deal with complex chemical compounds.

    Antimicrobials

    Antimicrobials are agents intended to kill or inhibit the growth of pathogens. They include antibiotics, fungicides, antiviral agents, parasiticides, as well as some disinfectants, antiseptics and natural products.

    Antimicrobial resistance occurs when microbes, such as bacteria, viruses, parasites and fungi evolve to become immune to the drugs to which they were previously susceptible, explains the report.

    The more microbes are exposed to pharmaceuticals, the more likely they are to adapt to them.

    According to the report, this global threat can be tackled by curbing the release of antibiotic-tinged pollution, including through improved wastewater treatment and more targeted use of antibiotics – too often these drugs are used when they need not be.

    The report also called for enhanced environmental governance and national action plans to limit the release of antimicrobials.

    One strategy, for example, calls on countries to “limit deforestation, which often brings humans face-to-face with virus-carrying wild animals, giving pathogens a chance to jump species.”

    The COVID-19 pandemic provides lessons learned, one of which is the need to prevent and tackle various health threats concurrently, especially their environmental dimensions, said the report.

    A recent study on pharmaceutical pollution of the world’s rivers concluded that higher levels of antibiotic-resistant pathogens were found in low- to middle-income countries and were associated with areas with poor wastewater and waste management infrastructure and pharmaceutical manufacturing.

    According to the UNEP report, the main pollutant sources contributing to the development and spread of antimicrobial resistance stem from poor sanitation, sewage and waste effluent, aggravated, for example, by open defecation and the overuse of antibiotics to treat diarrhoea. Besides these, effluent from pharmaceutical manufacturing and waste from healthcare facilities too contaminate these water sources as do livestock farming.

    Higher temperatures are also associated with increased antimicrobial resistant infections, says the report.

    “Many diseases are climate-sensitive, and changes in environmental conditions and temperature may lead to an increase in the spread of bacterial, viral, parasitic, fungal and vector-borne diseases.”

    On 2 March 2022, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) explained that although pandemics are a fact of human life, the world was blindsided by the impact and devastation of COVID-19.

    Modern medicine a curse?

    Back in 2018, the world environmental body had already warned that the aquatic and human health consequences of pharmaceutical drugs entering the environment through wastewater treatment plants is not yet well understood.

    As the world’s population expands and we become wealthier, drugs and chemical-based care products become more prevalent.

    “While pharmaceuticals are essential for human health and well-being, less is known on the effects they have on the freshwater sources on which we depend for our existence, and their impact on human health and biota”.

    The occurrence of pharmaceutical substances in the environment is of global concern.

     

    This piece has been sourced from Inter Press Service.

     

    Image: WHO

    ESCAP’s ‘Build Forward Fairer’ Report, Urges New Social Contract for Asia and Pacific

    OWSA Contributor
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    ESCAP’s ‘Build Forward Fairer’ Report, Urges New Social Contract for Asia and Pacific

    ESCAP’s new survey says that economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and other global shocks must be anchored in an inclusive “new social contract”, to protect the vulnerable.

    Amid continuing uncertainty over the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and increased global risks, the region’s economic recovery and progress must be anchored in “a new social contract” of inclusiveness to protect the vulnerable from future shocks, according to the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific for 2022, released today by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

    The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific is the UN’s oldest and most comprehensive annual socioeconomic study informing policymaking in the region, first published in 1947. Its latest edition advocates for shifting the tax burden towards high income groups.

    With dwindling fiscal space in many developing countries in the region, the survey cautions against cuts in fiscal expenditures on health care, education and social protection in order to protect the development gains of past decades and prevent further deepening of inequalities in the region.

    Economic growth in developing countries within the vast region, is projected to fall to 4.5 per cent in 2022 and five per cent during 2023, compared with an estimated growth rate of 7.1 per cent in 2021.

    In addition to the pandemic, the report shows that regional economies face several downside risks related to supply constraints, rising inflationary pressures, prospects of increases in interest rates, shrinking fiscal space, and the emerging global economic fallout from the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

    $2 trillion loss

    The cumulative output loss due to COVID-19 for the region’s developing economies between 2020 and 2022 is estimated to be nearly US$2 trillion.

    The pandemic has denied more than 820 million informal workers and over 70 million children in low-income households in the region adequate access to incomes and schooling. An additional 85 million people in Asia and the Pacific had already been pushed back into extreme poverty in 2021.

    “As developing countries in the region move ahead with learning to live with COVID-19, balancing the protection of public health and livelihoods, it is time to lay the foundations for a fairer future of equal opportunities and inclusive outcomes,” said Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of ESCAP.

    Three-point plan of action

    The Commission recommends a “three-pronged policy agenda” aimed at shaping an inclusive economy for the region.

    First, instead of reductions, developing countries in the region must tilt public spending towards basic universal health coverage, push further towards universal primary and secondary education, and expand social protection coverage.

    The commission argues that “smart” fiscal policies can improve the overall efficiency and impact of public spending and revenue collection. At the same time, new sources of revenue should be explored, such as taxing the digital economy, along with shifting the tax burden towards high income groups.

    Secondly, the 2022 survey argues that central banks in the region can and should tilt their traditional monetary policy conduct towards promoting inclusive development. While remaining focused on keeping inflation low and stable, central banks can invest part of official reserves in social bonds, explore how a central bank digital currency can enhance financial access, and encourage more innovative financial instruments to secure a social safety net.

    Thirdly, governments can also proactively guide, shape and manage the structural economic transformation process, which is increasingly driven by the digital-robotics-AI revolution, for more inclusive outcomes.

    This includes supporting the development of labour-intensive technologies, inclusive access to good-quality education, reskilling, strengthening labour negotiation capacities, and social protection floors.

     

    Tackling the Pandemic of Inequality in Asia and the Pacific

    Inter Press Service
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    Tackling the Pandemic of Inequality in Asia and the Pacific

    Amid continuing uncertainty over when the pandemic will finally be behind us, the one certainty for the region’s policymakers is that the benefits of recovery and progress must reach everyone.

    By Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana

    After two years of human devastation, the world is learning to live with COVID-19 while trying to balance the protection of public health and livelihoods.

    For countries in Asia and the Pacific, this is challenging not only because national coffers are heavily strained by record public spending to mitigate pandemic suffering, but also due to deeper structural economic issues.

    COVID-19 has exposed a pandemic of inequality in a region which has the world’s most dynamic economies but also half of the global poor. A region where nearly half of the total income goes to just 10 per cent of people while the poorest 10 per cent get just 0.2 per cent.

    This failure to grow together meant that the pandemic worsened the circumstances of those left behind. Estimates suggest that more than 820 million informal workers and over 70 million children in low-income households have been denied access to adequate income and education since the outbreak. Even more worryingly, this will leave long-term scars on economic productivity and learning, harming the future earning potential of those already marginalized.

    Amid continuing uncertainty over when the pandemic will finally be behind us, the one certainty for the region’s policymakers is that the benefits of recovery and progress must reach everyone.

    The prospects of the regional economy are riddled with downside risks related to the pandemic and emerging challenges in the external policy environment, according to the 2022 Economic and Social Survey for Asia and the Pacific released today by ESCAP. The cumulative output loss for the region’s developing economies between 2020 and 2022 is estimated to be nearly $2 trillion. Prolonged pandemic disruptions will further exacerbate the uneven recovery.

    Policies for a fairer future

    COVID-19 has created a generational opportunity to build a more equitable and sustainable world. As emphasized by the United Nations Secretary-General, this transformation process must be anchored on a New Social Contract with equal opportunities for all.

    Countries can pursue a three-pronged policy agenda for laying the foundations of an inclusive stakeholder economy in Asia and the Pacific.

    The immediate priority is avoiding fiscal cuts so that the development gains of past decades are not irreversibly lost. Amid fiscal consolidations, developing Asia-Pacific countries must maintain public spending on health care, education and social protection to keep inequalities from deepening and becoming entrenched.

    Instead of cuts, “smart” fiscal policies can improve the overall efficiency and impact of public spending and the scope of revenue collection. Public expenditures should be tilted towards primary health care, universalizing basic education and making tertiary education more inclusive while increasing and eventually extending social protection coverage for informal workers. Concurrently, new sources of revenue should be explored, for instance, by bringing digital economy under the tax net. Digital technologies can improve the delivery of health care and social protection services.

    Given the fiscal constraints, as the second policy pillar, central banking can move beyond its traditional roles and share the onus of promoting economic inclusiveness, not least because high and persistent levels of inequality can reduce monetary policy effectiveness. Only half of central banks in the region have financial access, financial literacy or consumer protection among their objectives and strategies. This is a missed opportunity.

    An opportunity we cannot waste

    Conservative reserve allocation strategies deter central banks from deploying part of the region’s $9.1 trillion official reserves towards social-oriented financial instruments. Amendments in central bank laws and investment strategies can make this possible. An appropriately designed central bank digital currency, supported by an enabling digital infrastructure and financial literacy, can enhance financial inclusion among other benefits. Central banks should also promote the use of social impact and sustainability-linked bonds for social purposes.

    The third policy pillar addresses the root cause of inequality. Economic structure determines inequality dynamics and the path to “growing with equity”. Thus, policymakers must focus on pre-distributive rather than redistributive policies. Developing countries can learn from the experiences of advanced economies in the region to proactively guide, shape and manage the structural transformation process for inclusive development.

    The digital-robotic-AI revolution is increasingly influencing economic transformation with great uncertainties for inclusiveness. To prepare for this, public support is needed to develop labour-intensive technologies, inclusive access to quality education, reskilling, strengthening labour negotiation capacities and social protection floors, among others.

    Although COVID-19 is a major setback to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, it is also a chance to accelerate investments in people and the planet, and to speed up regional progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

    This is an opportunity that we cannot waste.

     

    Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)

     

    This piece has been sourced from the Inter Press Service

    Ukraine War Drives International Food Prices To ‘New All-Time High’

    OWSA Contributor
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    Ukraine War Drives International Food Prices To ‘New All-Time High’

    The Russia-Ukraine war has driven large increases in international prices for wheat, maize and vegetable oils and Global food prices have reached “a new all-time high,” posting a significant leap in March, the head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization says, “hitting the poorest the hardest.”

    FAO’s newly released Cereal Supply and Demand Brief estimates that at least 20 per cent of Ukraine’s winter crops that were planted, may not be harvested.

    But, it also points to a worldwide cereal production of 2,799 million tonnes, up slightly from 2020, with rice production reaching an all-time high of 520.3 million tonnes.

    And global cereal use in 2021-22 is projected to reach 2,789 million tonnes, including a record level for rice, with increases also expected for maize and wheat.

    Global cereal stocks are forecast to rise by 2.4 per cent by the end of this year, from their opening levels, largely due to higher wheat and maize stocks in Russia and Ukraine, on account of lower expected exports.

    FAO lowered its forecast for world trade in cereals in the current marketing year to 469 million tonnes, marking a contraction from the 2020-21 level, largely due to the war in Ukraine and based on currently available information.

    Expectations point to the European Union and India increasing wheat exports, while Argentina, India and the United States ship are likely to ship more maize – partially compensating for the loss of exports from the Black Sea region.

    Harvest of COVID-19

    “It is now more than two years that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to negatively impact our lives, our health and our economies,” said FAO chief QU Dongyu.

    Explaining that the neediest “face greater exposure to the pandemic and are the most affected by rising food and fuel prices,” he pointed out that prices for staple foodstuffs such as wheat and vegetable oils have soared, “imposing extraordinary costs on global consumers, particularly the poorest”.

    Repercussions of war

    Conflict has driven up international prices for wheat, maize and vegetable oils, as war in the Black Sea region spread shocks through the markets trading in these staples.

    The FAO Food Price Index averaged 159.3 points in March, up 12.6 per cent from February when it had already reached its highest level since its inception in 1990.

    The Index tracks monthly changes in the prices of a basket of commonly traded food commodities. Last month’s prices were 33.6 per cent higher overall, than March last year.

    Driven by soaring wheat and coarse grain prices – largely as a result of the war in Ukraine – the FAO Cereal Price Index was 17.1 per cent higher in March than it was just a month earlier.

    Over the past three years, Russia and Ukraine combined, accounted for around 30 per cent and 20 per cent of global wheat and maize exports, respectively.

    More restrictions

    “In the space of a few weeks, the number of countries slapping on food-export restrictions jumped by 25 per cent, bringing the total number of countries to 35,” the World Bank Group President David Malpass writes in his blog. “By the end of March, 53 new policy interventions affecting food trade had been imposed—of which 31 restricted exports, and nine involved curbs on wheat exports,” he says quoting the latest data.

    Malpass says that while food crises are bad for everyone, they are more devastating for the poorest and most vulnerable. The reasons, he argues, are twofold. First, the world’s poorest countries tend to be food-importing countries. Second, food accounts for at least half of total expenditures of households in low-income countries.

    “In 2008, the food crisis brought on a significant increase in malnutrition, particularly in children,” Malpass wrote in his blog. “Many households pawned family valuables to buy food.”

    Studies showed school drop-out rates of as much as 50 per cent among children from the poorest households. “Social and economic damage of that kind cannot be easily reversed,” the World Bank Group President says.

     

    Image: UN

    Engaging with Central Asia Vital for China and India

    East Asia Forum
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    Engaging with Central Asia Vital for China and India

    The Central Asia Republics (CARs) of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan occupy an important place in the geopolitical frameworks of India and China. Both India and China have initiated a new wave of diplomatic engagements with the CARs after the announcement of the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    By Adil Khan Miankhel  /  Australian National University

    China launched a new ‘5+1’ dialogue arrangement with all five CARs in July 2020. China was late to work with the CARs in this new format, having only engaged with the countries at the bilateral and multilateral levels going back to 2004. The first ‘5+1’ meeting focussed on COVID-19, trade and investment.

    China’s second meeting took place on 12 May 2021. The meeting focussed  on cooperation, COVID-19, and adopting an inclusive political approach in engaging with Afghanistan. In the same format, President Xi Jinping held a virtual summit with Central Asian leaders on 25 January 2022 seeking cooperation in combating terrorism and strengthening regional security.

    India was also late to engage the CARs through the ‘5+1’ format. Prime Minister Narendra Modi last visited Central Asia in 2015. After the US exit from Afghanistan, the second meeting was held on 10 November 2021 in the ‘5+1’ format at the Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan. The third meeting took place in December 2021.

    United States

    India hosted the first virtual meeting of the India–Central Asia Summit involving the heads of states in the ‘5+1’ format. It was held just two days after China held its meeting at the same level. The major focus of the summit was developments in Afghanistan and the development of the Chabahar Port in Iran, a rival port to Gwadar Port in Pakistan being built with Chinese investment.

    China has labelled the ‘5+1’ forum as engaging with friendly neighbours — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan share a border with China. India has characterised their Central Asian relations as engagement through the ‘Extended Neighbourhood’ policy. Both China and India see geopolitical value and potentially competition in their overlapping Central Asian neighbourhood.

    US presence in Afghanistan previously provided a buffer for China to pursue its own economic engagement activities with Central Asia. But with the US gone, and uncertainty about the behaviour of the Taliban regime, China formed the ‘5+1’ institutional arrangement to provide a buffer at its western border.

    US withdrawal from Afghanistan has also proved to be an important factor for India’s renewed engagement with the CARs. India invested heavily into development projects in Afghanistan following the US invasion in 2001. India did not feel the need to engage directly with CARs as a single group in any other format.

    Afghanistan

    India’s security paradigm requires securing its North-Western Frontier. This was previously achieved through US presence in Afghanistan and deep engagement with previous Afghan regimes. With the US withdrawal, engaging with CARs has become imperative for India from a trade and security perspective.

    From a Central Asian perspective where economic and military capabilities to counter extremism and terrorism is limited, any arrangement will add value to their own security interests.

    China has already realised the importance of engaging Afghanistan and has extended humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Until the cause of threat is neutralised through an engagement strategy, all institutional arrangements that ensure stability may not prove to be effective and sustainable.

    Afghanistan still occupies a pivotal position in ensuring the stability of the region. The situation has currently become more precarious. If Afghanistan is left to its own fate, it may have spill over effects that could destabilise the whole region.

    Dr Adil is an alumni of Australian National University and was Visiting Fellow at Crawford School of Public Policy, Australia National University.

     

    This piece has been sourced from the East Asia Forum of the Australian National University

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