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    Nepal Works to Promote Remittances; Tightens Screws on Imports

    OWSA Contributor
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    Nepal Works to Promote Remittances; Tightens Screws on Imports

    Banking bodies and associations of non-residents have been roped in by the Nepal government to curb the flow of currency and attract foreign exchange in the form of remittances.

    Seeing the disturbing developments in Sri Lanka, Nepal has begun to take action to pre-empt a foreign exchange crisis.

    The international coordination committee of the non-resident Nepalis association (NRNA) held an emergency meeting on Monday and decided to lend hands to the government’s efforts to resolve a possible economic crisis in the country. A second interaction with the Finance Minister, officials of the central bank, the Nepal Rastra Bank and economists and other government officials is planned for Wednesday.

    The meeting decided to send word to all non-resident Nepalis to apply for a US Dollar account in any bank in Nepal and to deposit at least 1,000 USD in that account during the course of the coming month.

    A NRNA task force will also appraise the government of the hiccups of initiating a dollar account, remitting dollars and also operating the account.

    Over the past few months, a large number of Nepal workers have been given high-visibility farewells by government officials. These workers had returned home during the COVID-19 pandemic and their return to their foreign workplaces, or karma bhoomi, is important not only for their families, but also for the government that now realises the value of the remittances these workers send back home.

    Nepal’s biggest source of dollars has been its tourism industry. But that has taken a big hit since the COVID-19 pandemic struck the Himalayan country.

    Bankers tighten controls

    Earlier, over the weekend, a meeting of the Nepal Bankers’ Association (NBA) announced a decision not to issue letters of credit for the import of essentials except in case of extreme urgency. The ban on the imports of vehicles, gold, silvers, sugar, chewing gum, dry foods, furniture, cigarettes, alcohol, perfume and mobile phones will be non-negotiable, the bankers said.

    This followed on a decision of the Nepal Rastra Bank, which, in the past week had imposed 50 to 100 percent cash margin on the import of some 47 goods in a bid to stop the outflow of the country’s depleting foreign exchange reserves.

    Likewise, the central bank had called and directed CEOs of all 27 commercial banks to halt letters of credit to the imports of luxury goods, mainly vehicles.

    Simultaneously, exports are being promoted – mainly, tea from the estates and gardens in Ilam to the country’s east; soyabean oil, carpets and fibre.

    Petrol

    Nepal’s biggest worry are its petrol bills. It is dependent on fuel imports from India and the galloping bills are causing late-night meetings to curb inflationary trends that come with a hike in fuel prices.

    The price of petrol, according to the Nepal Oil Corporation Ltd (NOC) was Nepali Rupees 160 on Tuesday (corresponding to Indian Rupees 100). NOC is a government owned organization that imports, stores and distributes petroleum products.

    Corporation officials have complained to the government that they are losing over Rs 20 for every litre of petrol. They have said that this cannot be sustained much longer.

    More worrisome is the cost of cooking gas, a cylinder of which costs 1,600 Nepali Rupees (or 1,000 Indian Rupees). The Nepal Oil Corporation is incurring a loss of over Rs 930 on every cylinder of cooking gas, officials say. Even a litre of kerosene oil costs 143 Nepali rupees.

    In fact, the government has been even wary of undertaking any publicity of its agreements with India for the supply of oil and the joint inauguration of the Motihari-Amlekhgunj petroleum pipeline by Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Sher Bahadur Deuba.

    The Nepal government is keenly watching the turn of events in Sri Lanka – apprehensive of any political fallout of inflationary pressures.

    Traditional, Time-Tested Methods and a Modern App Helps Beat Climate Change

    Inter Press Service
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    Traditional, Time-Tested Methods and a Modern App Helps Beat Climate Change

    Farmers have a trying time during summer, preventing the soil from cracking from intense heat. Erratic and untimely rains exacerbate the pest problem. Now, help is at hand in the form of a new farming technique.

    By Rina Mukherji

    Even as erratic weather and extremely high temperatures increase pest infestation and affect harvests, a combination of traditional methods, integrated pest management through intercropping and multilayering is helping farmers in Ahmednagar and Aurangabad districts of Maharashtra, India.

    Ahmednagar and Aurangabad districts in the western Indian state of Maharashtra are semi-arid regions in the hinterland. Ahmednagar is drought-prone with erratic rains. Aurangabad district lies in the water-starved Marathwada region of Maharashtra. The mean maximum temperature is high, and the area experienced severe droughts in 2012 and 2014. Barring the Godavari, there are no perennial rivers in the region. Farmers have a trying time during the summer months, trying to prevent the soil from cracking due to intense heat. The rains are erratic, with untimely rains further exacerbating the onset of pests.

    Yet, both districts lead in the production of pulses, maize, and grams. Since these crops are susceptible to aphids and pod-borers, high temperatures and erratic rains due to climate change have seen farmers resort to increased chemicals to check pest infestation.

    This is where multilayer farming using natural organic methods, integrated pest management, and intercropping has proved beneficial to farmers in Gangapur, Shrigonda and Karjat.  Gradually reducing the chemical content in their farms over three full years, farmers are now opting for natural organic farming, with the help of technical expertise from the non-profit Watershed Organization Trust (WOTR) and scientists from WOTR-Centre for Climate Resilience (W-CRES).

    Right plant, right place, right time

    The design incorporates a variety of vegetable and fruit varieties planted in limited space. This means using trees and plants of varying heights and maturing time next to one another so that each is dependent on the other. Smaller plants grow under the canopy of tall trees and yield well, even as tall fruit trees shoot up to the sun. It also ensures adequate shade in the summer months to keep the farms cool and congenial for growth. Water consumption is minimised using a rain-pipe sprinkler that runs around the patch. The method also uses integrated pest management to control pests by choosing the right plants in a cluster, and natural pesticides, without using any chemicals.

    W-CRES Senior Researcher Dr Nitin Kumbhar and Junior Researcher Satish Adhe explains: “Integrated pest management works at several levels. It works through the choice of natural and organic methods, natural pheromone traps, intercropping (as per a formula we have developed), and the use of organic fungicides/pesticides that can be easily made by farming households.”

    A simple square design is used, wherein bananas are intercropped with marigold, mango, maize, and black gram (urad), and papayas are intercropped with chilli black gram, drumstick, and guava. Onions are intercropped with ginger; tomatoes are intercropped with spinach and pumpkin. Radish is planted in a single row, while ridge gourd, lemongrass, and coriander are grown on the outside flanks of the farm.

    Soft-stemmed coriander attracts pests. When attacked, the affected stalks of coriander are easily discarded. Marigold destroys nematodes in the soil through its alkaloid roots and protects crops. It also attracts female moths who lay eggs on the plant (leaving other crops untouched). Maize attracts beneficial insects such as the ladybird beetle, which feeds on the aphids that destroy crops.

    Science at work

    Integrated pest management also involves pheromone traps to attract and kill destructive pests. These traps can be used against leaf-eating insects, pod borers, mealy bugs, aphids, sucking pests or fruit flies.

    For all crops grown on patches, it is imperative that planting is done in a north-south direction. “This allows the crops to access sunshine throughout the day,” explains Kumbhar.

    Once the farmers did away with hybrid varieties and opted for traditional ones, there was less vegetative growth and fewer insect attacks.

    “Part of the problem with hybrid varieties is more vegetative growth and softer stems. This makes it attractive for pests to attack. Traditional varieties are hardier and can withstand extreme temperatures that are now common due to climate change. Farmers do not lose their crops easily due to pest attacks,” Kumbhar tells IPS.

    Dipali Bankar, whose family owns a 3-acre farm in Ambelohol village in Gangapur (taluka) of Aurangabad district. A Savita Bachat Gat (Savita microfinance group) member, Dipali used her savings to widen the varieties cultivated on her family’s farm, using the multilayer model on a patch.

    “Earlier, we would grow cotton from June to October, Jowar in summer, soybeans and pigeon pea in the monsoons, chickpeas, and onion in winter. Limited availability of water-limited our options. In February 2020, I took the advice of experts from WOTR and went in for multilayer farming on four gunthas (400 square metres of our land. We planted papaya, moringa (drumsticks), bananas, mangoes, guava, lemon, figs, tomatoes, brinjal, chilli (curry leaves), and marigold. Despite the COVID-19 -induced lockdown, the family earned a sizeable sum from the fruit and vegetables cultivated.

    Reaping profits

    The Bankars had their first crop of chillies in April 2020 and have sold a sizeable amount every 15 days, helping the family earn Rs 15000 so far. Papaya matures in nine months, while bananas bear fruit in eight months, and moringa yields drumsticks in seven months. This helped the Bankars earn Rs 70,000 from papayas, Rs 28000 and Rs 56 000 from two banana harvests, respectively and Rs 40,000 from selling drumsticks. Although markets were shut during the lockdown, the family managed to sell through local grocery shops and used the rest for their consumption. Dipali’s husband, Devidas Bankar, managed to sell part of his produce in Surat and Mumbai, where he travelled once the lockdown eased.

    Sindhubai Ramnath Desai of Ambelohol village in Gangapur taluka of Aurangabad was sceptical. She initially opted to experiment on just 100 square metres, planting moringa, bananas, papaya, lemon, mango, figs, tomato, chilli, brinjal, lemongrass, spinach, coriander, curry leaves and garden sorrel. But the earnings were so substantial that she soon revised her opinion on multilayer farming.

    “We earned Rs 7000 from bananas, Rs 5000 from papaya, Rs 2000 from drumsticks, Rs 1500 from chillies, and Rs 2000 selling spinach following the first harvest, besides saving Rs 2000 every month using vegetables and fruit for our consumption.”

    Cows come home

    The Desais used to hire bullocks for their farm – with the extra money earned they bought cattle which they fed with home-grown fodder.

    “We have a cow and two bullocks of our own, now. The special fodder bag we now make, using jaggery, salt and (maize) fodder grass, is very nutritious and has helped them yield good milk. The cattle relish it too, as you can see,” she points to her cow, hungrily devouring the contents of the fodder bag from a feeding bucket. The family has now decided to double the land under multilayer farming to 200 square metres (two gunthas).

    Sangita Krishna Ballal and her family had been growing cotton as a monoculture crop on their farmland until the recent past. Their fortunes changed once they opted for multilayer farming on a single guntha (approximately 100 square metres). With drumsticks, papaya, mango, guava, figs, lemongrass, coriander, chilli, lemongrass, brinjal, tomato, curry leaves, marigold, spinach and dill to supplement their income, the family fortunes started looking up. Lemongrass proved an excellent cash crop, with factories regularly collecting it to manufacture flavouring essence.

    Dipak Dattatraya Mandle and his wife Mangal Mandle of Mahandulwadi in Shrigonda taluka of Ahmednagar district found that apart from other achievements, marigolds were successful.  With marigolds priced at Rs 200 per kg, sales during the festive season in September-October clocked around Rs 7000/ per month.

    Kavita and Aruna Bhujbal used the extra money earned to buy cattle.

    “We now have 20 goats, in addition to our two buffaloes, and seven cows (four Guernsey and three local breeds). We have been selling the milk to the local dairy. Goat milk is in big demand,” Aruna said. Others are diverting their additional income to diversify into other livelihood options. For instance, Kausar Sheikh has used the money to expand her bangle business, while Mira Mahandule and Sangita Popat Birekar have started rearing goats.

    New technology

    In this, the FarmPrecise app developed by WOTR has been of immense help. A multilingual app, FarmPrecise helps the individual farmer with advice related to the amount of water, fertilizer, fungicide, or pesticide to be used for every crop and at what intervals. The farmers are also instructed on the organic concoctions for stimulating growth and keeping their crops pest-free.

    For instance, the farmers use Bengal gram flour, jaggery, cow dung and cow urine to make Jeevamrut fertilizer, while Neemastra is made out of neem leaves, cow dung and cow urine to serve as a pesticide. The Amrutpani spray (pesticide), is made of a mixture of neem leaves, Bengal gram flour, jaggery and cow dung. The Dashaparni spray – a composition using ten different types of leaves along with garlic, chillies, cow dung and cow urine is another useful biopesticide that serves as a pesticide and growth stimulant.

    This combination of traditional, time-tested methods and a modern app is helping farmers combat and overcome climate change, the newest scourge on the block.

     

    This feature has been sourced from Inter Press Service.

    Lankans Suspend Repayment of Foreign Debts

    OWSA Contributor
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    Lankans Suspend Repayment of Foreign Debts

    In a sudden, though not unexpected development, Sri Lanka today announced the suspension of the island nation’s debt repayments.

    Sri Lanka’s Treasury Secretary Mahinda Siriwardena announced this morning that the country will suspend debt repayments of debt, said to be in excess of US$ 50 billion.

    He said that this was a temporary arrangement – for an interim period pending an orderly restructuring of debt. Officials took pains to clarify that this was not a move towards defaulting on the country’s external debts.

    The affected debt would include the principal amount and the interest falling due after 1700 hour today, April 12 Sri Lanka time, Siriwardena said.

    Analysts in the country see this as a first step in the direction of undertaking a restructuring of debts in the run-up to negotiating a financial bail-out package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The finance department’s top techno-bureaucrat said that bilateral support was expected.

    The IMF program would move in parallel.

    Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasignhe said inflows could now be used for essential imports.

    The government has given multilateral and bilateral creditors to receive their dues in Sri Lankan rupees, though there are unlikely to be any takers since the value of the Sri Lankan rupee has tanked.

    Apart from a slew of ill-planned moves like an overnight imposition of an organic farming regimen, the Sri Lanka government undertook a money-printing overdrive. The ill-advised steps and a general economic and political mismanagement have landed the island nation in an economic mess.

    The runaway inflation has seen people step out on the streets and demands have been growing for Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation.

    This is a developing story and will be updated as more information arrives.

    How Putin Underestimated Ukraine

    Inter Press Service
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    How Putin Underestimated Ukraine

    After three weeks of the Russian invasion, it seemed that despite military superiority, the Russian army is confused and demoralised. On the other hand, the newly established Territorial Defence Forces of Ukraine has been overwhelmed with applicants.

    By Hanna Shelest

    In the eyes of the Kremlin leadership, the basic precondition of the successful war against Ukraine has been the perceived power of the Russian Armed Forces and possible superiority over the Ukrainian forces.

    This idea is clearly visible in the numerous pre-war statements in which it was assumed that Ukrainian people would not fight, that they would welcome Russians, and that they would and should be ‘liberated’ or ‘protected’.

    The reality showed the opposite. Not only did Ukrainian Armed Forces fight back, but Ukrainian society demonstrates unity and resistance, something that definitely contradicts the notion of a ‘divided East and West’ promoted by Russian propaganda for years.

    Do Ukrainians still have different views regarding politicians, economic development, and even the state of their foreign policy? Yes, absolutely, as any other democratic nation should.

    Still, according to the latest sociological surveys (March), 76 per cent of Ukrainian think that their country is going in the right direction, in February, this number was just 25 per cent.

    Moreover, Ukrainians are not ready to give up Crimea and the occupied territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions: 86 per cent think that Ukraine should use all means necessary to return Donbas, and 80 per cent – to return Crimea – these numbers are also higher than they were before the war started.

    A united Ukrainian people

    The imperative of the Russian leadership was that Russian-speaking cities such as Kharkiv and Odesa would surrender first. Just before the invasion, there had been rumours in Odesa’s social networks that a mayor bought one million roses to greet Russian soldiers.

    Moreover, Kharkiv appeared in the Ukrainian president’s interview with the Washington Post as a city that has the potential to be occupied by the Russian Federation. The latter provoked strong opposition among the local politicians and activists who have been publicly confirming the readiness to resist and the pro-Ukrainian mood of the city.

    Some experts now consider that the brutal Russian shelling of Kharkiv is a punishment for that January position. In Odesa too, sociological polls on the third week of the war demonstrated that 91 per cent agreed that Russia is at war with Ukraine, 74 per cent absolutely disagreed that Russia is liberating Ukraine from ‘nationalists’, and 93 per cent supported the actions of President Zelenskyy.

    Moreover, an initial plan that these occupied cities would quickly follow ‘the Crimea scenario’ of the fake referendum and the instalment of proxies as heads of the municipality did not work out.

    The occupied cities of Kherson, Kahovka, and Energodar have seen daily participation of pro-Ukrainian demonstrations against the Russian forces. Mayors of several towns in Eastern Ukraine, including Melitopol, were kidnapped, but local inhabitants still did not support a new ‘leadership’.

    In 2013, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians came to the Maidan after the brutal attack against a small group of students. In 2022, millions of Ukrainians, despite ethnicity, religion, or language preferences, came out in support of the towns that have been under constant attack.

    While in January, the newly established Territorial Defence Forces of Ukraine was trying to attract 100 thousand reservists, in March, it is almost impossible to join the TDF because of quantity of applications.

    These volunteers now have an experience of eight years of continuous war with Russia and bring both humanitarian aid and military supply. But what is most important is that people believe in the Armed Forces, and this trust and support is what makes the situation so difficult for the Kremlin.

    2014 is not 2022

    In the development of different strategic documents for the Armed Forces or diplomats of Ukraine, we always emphasised an important element – personnel and their motivation. Air superiority or outnumbering in personnel and missiles are important, but only if you have personnel ready to fight and with an understanding for what the country is fighting.

    After three weeks of the Russian invasion, it seemed that despite military superiority, the Russian army is confused and demoralised. But unfortunately, not their leadership.

    These examples clearly demonstrate the how the Russian leadership underestimated Ukraine’s military, as most conclusions were based on the 2014 situation. Ill-equipped Armed Forces, significant support of the pro-Russian political parties, misunderstanding of the undemocratic processes happening in Russia itself have diminished gradually after eight years of the occupation of Crimea and the war in Donbas.

    The desire for peace cannot be confused with the willingness to surrender, and the desire for stability should not be confused with willingness to suppress a democratic and sovereign choice of people.

    ‘It is our land, it is our home’. ‘We are not contesting anybody or disputing over something. We defend our family’. ‘Don’t ask how is my family, my family is 44 million Ukrainians’. These are the most popular slogans these days. It is not nationalism or excessive patriotism.

    This is the type of resilience which experts and politicians have been discussing during the last years. Ukraine adopted its first National Resilience Concept in September 2021. Six months later came a reason to check its validity.

     

    Dr Hanna Shelest is editor-in-chief of Ukraine Analytica and heads the security policy department at the Ukrainian think tank Ukrainian Prism.

    This piece first appeared International Politics and Society and has been obtained via Inter Press Service. 

    Image: UNICEF

    The Dangers of Defending Women Accused of Sorcery in Papua New Guinea

    OWSA Contributor
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    The Dangers of Defending Women Accused of Sorcery in Papua New Guinea

    Human rights defenders are often targeted when they assist a survivor of sorcery accusation-related violence because they are seen as interfering in a customary practice. Likewise, they are also targeted for offering to help survivors of gender-based violence to move provinces, because they are considered to be meddling in a family matter.

    In Papua New Guinea, defending women accused of sorcery, has become a life-threatening occupation. The Spotlight Initiative is one of the handful of civil society interventions promoting legislation to protect threatened human rights defenders in the country, who risk violence, torture, and death.

    “When we are trying to help others, or when we go to court to take up someone’s case, we face threats and intimidation,” says Mary Kini, of the Highlands Human Rights Defenders Networks.

    For more than 14 years, Mary has been working to assist victims of sorcery-related violence, and gender-based violence, in Papua New Guinea (PNG), despite the high personal cost that often comes with it.

    Mary recently joined fellow human rights defenders Eriko Fuferefa, of the Kafe Urban Settlers Women’s Association, and Angela Apa, of the Kup Women for Peace in Mount Hagen, for a three-day consultation on the development of a Human Rights Defenders’ Protection bill.

    “For so many years we have not been protected and some human rights defenders have been killed along the way,” said Eriko Fuferefa. “Some of them are abused, or tortured. We have so many bruises.”

    ‘Wanted to kill me’

    An average of 388 cases of sorcery accusation-related violence are reported across four Papua New Guinea’s Highlands provinces every year, but fear of retaliation means the true number of victims is likely far higher.

    Following advocacy from the Spotlight Initiative, there is now greater political ownership of issues of violence against women and children, demonstrated by the country’s first Special Parliamentary Inquiry on gender-based violence, which delivered recommendations to parliament and has made notable legislative advances in the area of sorcery accusation-related violence.

    Practices to identify those accused of sorcery vary between districts, but generally, when someone has died unexpectedly, the family of the deceased will consult a Glasman (male) or Glasmeri (female) to identify who in the community is responsible.

    Accusations of sorcery by a glasman or glasmeri have led to the torture and murder of dozens of women across PNG. While accusations can be levelled at both men and women, most of the victims of violence are women.

    “When my husband died, we took him to his village and there, his family began to suspect that I killed him, so they planned to cut off my head and bury me with my late husband,” explains one survivor. “It wasn’t true, they just wanted to kill me.”

    “People have these norms, these beliefs,” said Mary. “When a Glasman or Glasmeri comes along and says something, people automatically react to what they are saying.”

    Volunteers risk defend Women Accused Sorcery Papua New Guinea

    Long overdue change

    Amendments to the Criminal Code make it illegal to use, attempt to use, or threaten to use their services. Penalties include up to 10 years in jail and fines of up to 10,000 PGK.

    In submissions to the Special Parliamentary Inquiry in 2021, the Spotlight Civil Society Reference Group (of which Ms. Kini is a co-chair) recommended that the Government review policies and laws that address social norms that allow for sorcery-related violence, including the use of glasman and glasmeri.

    “This is very important, and I am really pleased that this has passed as this is something we have been asking for, for a long, long time,” concluded Mary.

     

    Image: Spotlight Initiative  /  Rachel Donovan

    Neighbours Prodded Taliban to Ensure Rights While UN ‘Pledgers’ Spoke of Taliban’s Track Record

    OWSA Contributor
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    Neighbours Prodded Taliban to Ensure Rights While UN ‘Pledgers’ Spoke of Taliban’s Track Record

    The UN conference spoke of the Taliban’s order extending the closure of girls’ secondary schools. Simultaneously, at a parallel conference held in China, neighbouring countries and friends of the present Afghan Taliban regime brought up the subject of terrorism.

    Even friends are refraining from endorsing the rights track record of Afghanistan’s Taliban government.

    A joint statement signed at the end of the conference of seven of Afghanistan’s neighbours end-March noted the need for the Taliban-led government to ensure women’s rights and children’s education in Afghanistan and “guarantee the basic rights of all Afghan people, including all ethnic groups, women and children.”

    More harsh was the stress of the joint statement on the need to curb terrorism emanating from Afghanistan.

    The conference in China coincided with another simultaneous United Nations ‘pledging’ conference wherein 41 international donors pledged US$ 2.44 billion in humanitarian aid for Afghanistan – almost half of the US$ 4.4 billion target.

    At the UN -led partners’ conference, US’ ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said that the new US humanitarian assistance for Afghanistan’s 22 million people through UN and nongovernmental partners is meant to ameliorate the food insecurity situation in the country.

    Yet, she stressed “The Taliban will not control our humanitarian funding,” adding further that “the Taliban’s ambition to improve its own relations with the international community depends on its conduct.”

    To buttress her point, she cited the Taliban’s March 23 orders extending the nationwide closure of girls’ secondary schools.

    “It is impossible not to feel a sense of profound outrage when we see girls and young women across Afghanistan wracked with tears as they learn they will have to leave their classrooms after all,” she had said.

    Notably, there were not dissenters to what the US ambassador to the UN said.

    Chinese dragon

    The conference in China, however, did not get as much public attention. The joint statement released at the end of the day, however, reveals the division among the international aid community. Pakistan was the chief propeller of this conference.

    The joint statement voiced an “opposition to the politicization of humanitarian aid, stressing the “dominant role of the relevant Afghan authorities in the distribution and use of aid to the Afghan people by the international community and international organizations.”

    But the terrorism word did figure in the joint statement. “We call on the relevant Afghan authorities to take more visible measures to draw a clear line with various terrorist forces,” the statement said, adding, the need to “ensure that Afghanistan will no longer become a terrorist organization a breeding ground, a sanctuary and a source of diffusion,” the statement said.

    Similarly, the joint statement noted the “importance of continuing to take necessary measures to ensure women’s rights and children’s education in Afghanistan.” It called for “further measures to improve people’s livelihood and guarantee the basic rights of all Afghan people, including all ethnic groups, women and children.”

    That the Taliban representative signed on the joint statement with a clear reference to terrorism and the issue of women’s rights is indicative of the compulsion of today’s rulers in Afghanistan to dance to the tune of the Chinese dragon.

    Interestingly, the joint statement also paid its due respect to the host country’s Belt and Road Initiative, committing to “deepening cooperation under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative and regional cooperation organizations, absorbing Afghanistan into regional connectivity, energy and transportation networks and economic and trade systems, and helping Afghanistan realize its geographical advantages and economic development potential.”

     

    Image: UNICEF

    How Accurate Is Nepal’s COVID-19 Death Toll?

    OWSA Contributor
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    How Accurate Is Nepal’s COVID-19 Death Toll?

    According to government data, nearly 12,000 Nepali deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 but poor data keeping and discrepancies call the number into question.  

    By Marissa Taylor 

    Ganesh Shrestha was a healthy man. In his 68 years, he had never had any serious health issues nor had he ever been hospitalized.

    But in May 2020, during the second wave of the pandemic, he contracted COVID-19 and was hospitalized due to breathing difficulties. After 20 days in the hospital, Shrestha died. The Nepal Army disposed of his body and he was among the nearly 11,928 Nepalis who have died because of COVID-19 over the past two years.

    The immediate cause of Shrestha’s death was refractory bradycardia, which in layman’s terms means a decrease in the heart rate that occurs to prevent abnormal increases in blood pressure. Bilateral COVID pneumonia was a contributing cause to his death, according to Karishma Shrestha, his daughter.

    “My father’s CT value was already 35 [a CT value of above 35 may be considered as negative for COVID-19] and we were preparing to actually take him home when he suddenly died,” said his 28-year-old daughter, whose first name along with her father’s has been changed for privacy reasons. “Because he was admitted in the COVID ward, he was automatically counted as a COVID death.”

    Ever since the pandemic began, questions regarding what exactly constitutes a COVID-19 death have been asked time and again. Ganesh Shrestha’s case can be seen as emblematic of the confusion surrounding what ascribes COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. Although Ganesh Shrestha would’ve technically tested negative for the coronavirus, doctors attribute his death to complications developed from COVID -19, which makes it a COVID death.

    But things get more complicated when it comes to patients with comorbidities and long-term afflictions. There’s confusion over whether reported death statistics reflect those who’ve died from COVID -19 or those who’ve died with the virus, because the COVID -19 death toll published daily by governments around the world — including Nepal — does not differentiate between the two. Lumping these two statistics together does not provide a true picture of the pandemic’s death toll and can hinder targeted public health measures to prevent future deaths.

    WHO recommendations

    According to the WHO’s international guideline for certification and classification (coding) of COVID-19 as the cause of death, a COVID-19 death is one “resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma).”

    In line with the WHO’s guideline, the Nepali Health Ministry’s Epidemiology and Disease Control Division (EDCD) only came up with its own guideline for recording COVID-19 deaths in January 2021. Before that, it was standard practice to record as a COVID death anyone who was positive for the coronavirus at the time of death.

    “Following WHO recommendations, we define COVID-19 deaths as all deaths where the individuals had the virus in their body at the time of death,” said Dr Amrit Pokhrel, chief of the Emergency and Outbreak Management Section at the EDCD. A unit at the EDCD is responsible for tallying confirmed COVID-19 cases, along with fatalities, reported by hospitals from across the country. The daily tally is then published every evening on the Health Ministry website.

    “Except for deaths like road accidents, suicide, and those caused by crime, anyone who tests positive for COVID at the time of death is counted as a COVID death,” said Dr Pokhrel.

    Doctors decide too

    But such a blanket rule does not provide an accurate picture of COVID deaths. It is important to distinguish between those who died with COVID and those who died from COVID to understand which section of the population remains susceptible to the virus and at this point in time, to assess the efficacy of the various vaccines that have been deployed.

    “At the time the guidelines were made, we were all scared of the virus and how fast it would spread. So the WHO and the EDCD established these guidelines in the hope that people would take the disease seriously and that would help to lessen the risk of spread,” said Dr Pokhrel.

    However, doctors have the authority to assess and decide on what is a COVID death on their own too. A doctor, alongside a committee of three other health professionals, can decide on the cause of death, whether a patient died with COVID or because of it, said Dr Pokhrel.

    But given the manner in which Nepal’s data is collected, there is no indication of how many COVID deaths were decided upon by doctors and how many were simply chalked up to COVID-19 due to the presence of the virus.

    To better assess the actual mortality from COVID-19, many countries are calculating ‘excess mortality’ during the pandemic. Excess mortality is measured as the difference between the reported number of deaths in a given period of time and an estimate of the expected number of deaths for that period had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred. It is, in other words, all deaths arising from the pandemic but not just directly from a medical infection.

    Excess mortality

    Excess mortality provides a clearer picture of the actual effects of the pandemic as it doesn’t just take into account the deaths directly from COVID-19 but also the associated consequences of the pandemic like loss of employment, mental and physical stress, and increased poverty.

    For example, according to The Economist, in India, estimates suggest that perhaps 2.3 million people had died from COVID-19 by the start of May 2021, compared with about 200,000 official deaths, suggesting the country’s death toll is severely underreported.

    The estimated excess mortality for Nepal was 114,126 as of February 13, 2022. The reported mortality rate from COVID -19 is currently 392.6 per 1 million ( or about 39 per 100,000) which implies that there could be many more deaths due directly to the coronavirus, in addition to other related stressors.

    These, however, are estimates and COVID -19 has been a thoroughly unpredictable pandemic. This further hammers home the importance of accurate, reliable data, which is sorely lacking in Nepal. Unavailability of data remains a critical problem in Nepal, especially at a time when accurate data is necessary to gauge the extent of COVID-19 and its myriad effects. Even the data that is available is notoriously unreliable and unscientific.

    “Even if we wanted to look for discrepancies, we can’t because we don’t have any data to compare. All the COVID -19 numbers we have are coming directly from the Health Ministry,” said Yogendra Gurung, a professor of population studies at Tribhuvan University.

    Not defined properly

    Neither the health ministry nor the Central Bureau of Statistics has records of annual deaths. The only data that is available is Nepal’s annual death rate. If we look at the death rate of Nepal from 2020-2022, it ranges from 6.264 to 6.327 per thousand (6.327 in 2020, 6.295 in 2021, and 6.264 in 2022). If we compare just the death rate, then the last three years’ numbers are the lowest yet, declining each year even during the pandemic years. But these are just projections made by the UN and do not help us discern how accurate the national COVID-19 death toll is.

    “These projections are most probably based on the 2001 census and do not take into account the deaths caused by the pandemic,” said Gurung. “Maybe the 2021 census could help us look at the numbers but it is not complete yet.”

    Globally, there have been other discrepancies surrounding COVID-19 deaths. According to this data tracker, Peru has the highest number of deaths per million (6,216, as of February 22). Nepal, for comparison, had 416.83 deaths per million as of February 22. But if you take a look at the total number of cases, Peru is 25th, with 3,497,896 cases. This discrepancy raises questions as to whether testing is limited in Peru, if death cases are being over-reported because COVID-19 deaths are not defined properly, or if the data calculation is faulty.

    Complex job

    Dr Sher Bahadur Pun, chief of the Clinical Research Unit at the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital in Teku, acknowledges that determining the cause of death amidst COVID-19 is complex.

    “COVID-19 can cause an extraordinarily wide range of clinical complications. And at the core of the issue is the fact that COVID-19 kills in myriad ways, typically setting off a combination of potentially fatal afflictions. Thus it can become challenging for medical professionals themselves to distinguish COVID deaths,” said Dr Pun.

    While some reports suggest that COVID-19 deaths have been grossly exaggerated, there are others that suggest that cases are severely being underreported.

    Dr Pun and Dr Pokhrel, like many other health professionals, believe that Nepal’s death toll is severely underreported and that the total number of fatalities may be much higher. There are several reasons for this.

    “First, there could be a lot of people who died because of coronavirus but did not get themselves tested or visited hospitals or health care centers due to a lack of financial resources, or even social stigma,” said Dr Pokhrel.

    Second, Nepal has limited testing capabilities and limited resources to keep track of everything, he said.

    There’s yet another issue with keeping track of COVID fatalities currently.

    “Earlier, the Nepal Army would dispose of all the bodies and it was easier to keep track of the number of casualties. But now that the fear of COVID has decreased among the public, people are disposing of the dead themselves and because of that, there could be cases that are slipping out from the national record,” said Dr Pokhrel.

    Subjective

    Data from the Health Ministry and the Nepal Army have conflicted at times. Last year, during the height of the second wave, the Nepal Army and the ministry released different numbers for COVID-19 fatalities. On May 11, 2021, the Health Ministry had placed the death toll at 4,084 while the Nepal Army said that it was 4,682. Public health experts had sided with the army’s data.

    Periodically, the Health Ministry omits deaths in its daily update while it tallies its data with that of the Nepal Army, leading to sudden jumps in the daily death rate. On May 12, 2021, the Health Ministry suddenly added 168 deaths to the day’s death count, without explicitly specifying that the deaths were cumulative over the past few days based on Nepal Army data. Again, on September 9 last year, 14 deaths were cumulatively reported.

    Officially, nearly 12,000 people have died due to COVID-19 but the true death toll of the pandemic is certainly much higher, both in terms of direct deaths and those from related causes. Accurate, disaggregated data is part of the public’s right to information and in the midst of the pandemic, part of their right to life and an adequate standard of health. But doctors say that this is par the course for Nepal – things get done very late, if they ever get done at all.

    “I too have heard of family and friends who did not die directly from COVID but were declared dead due to the virus,” said Gurung, the Tribhuvan University professor. “But this is all subjective. There’s no way we can know the true death count unless we do a recount keeping in mind a more clear definition of a COVID-19 death.”

     

    Marissa Taylor is Assistant Editor of The Record. She previously worked at The Kathmandu Post.

    Banner illustration: Prajesh Sjb Rana

    This piece has been sourced from The Record.

    First Person From Congo: From Taking Lives To Saving Lives

    OWSA Contributor
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    First Person From Congo: From Taking Lives To Saving Lives

    Fabien Mwingwa once fought as a child soldier with an armed group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Today, he has turned his life around, and works for the UN peacekeeping mission in the country as a firefighter, helping to keep local people safe.

    Fabien Mwingwa was 17 when a rebel group – RCD Goma – convinced him to join its ranks, and fight against the then government of President Laurent Kabila, with promises of a life of prosperity.

    He was recruited in Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, and started military training in the bush. After fighting for seven years, Fabien surrendered and is now an employee of the UN peacekeeping mission in DRC, (MONUSCO) as a Fire Safety Assistant.

    “When I joined RCD Goma, a gloomy future was in store for me. The government was trying to impose one tribe, to rule over the entire country, and the rebel leaders promised that once we had liberated the country, we would prosper.

    After recruitment, we stayed in Goma for a month and then we were sent to Rwampara military camp, located in Bunia, Ituri province. The rebel leaders realized that our parents were looking for us, and it could have been easier for them to spot us in Goma.

    In 1999 the training was moved to Kisangani, before we were sent to the battlefield in Manono, Tanganyika province. The fighting was intense. We used heavy weaponry like Rocket-Propelled Grenades (RPGs). We were very young, and some of those who survived later, had mental breakdowns.

    I suffered a lot. The conditions were filthy and stinking, and we were infested with lice.

    ‘Please return home’

    I was picked to escort our leader back to Goma, along with other fighters, and when my mother found out that I was back, she pleaded with me to stay home, as family members were saddened by what they heard I went through in the bush.

    But I stayed with the group, and it wasn’t until 2004 that I decided to leave. I realized that life with armed groups did not bring the prosperity they had promised: whatever money we got, we had to give to the leadership, who did not even provide us with shelter.

    The following year, I heard about the Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) programme, run by the UN peacekeeping mission. I surrendered my weapons and uniforms, and followed all procedures, including visiting an office that verified whether or not I had indeed taken military training, or committed any crimes in the community.

    I got a job as a security guard, where I received training in engineering and fire safety. When my contract ended, I secured several further short-term contracts until I was employed by MONUSCO as a Fire Safety Assistant in 2015.

    I am grateful that MONUSCO has been with me since my surrender. I make a decent salary and I own a house. I am married, and am able to provide my children with a good education.

    My message to young people is that they should not go fighting in the bush, as there are no benefits. I suffered, I wasted time. And to combatants, I say, please come home and learn various skills. You could be hired like me, and life is good”.

     

    Image: UN

    South-East Asian Rice Bowl Depleting Fast

    SciDevNet
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    South-East Asian Rice Bowl Depleting Fast

    A new analysis warns that South-East Asia may lose its status as a major international rice exporter due to diminishing crop yields, land pressures and climate change. This calls for the introduction of better management and production techniques.

    By Sanjeet Bagcchi

    Dwindling crop yields, land scarcity and climate change may cause South-East Asia to lose its status as a major rice exporter — unless changes in production and management techniques are introduced, says an analysis.

    Published March in Nature Food, the analysis evaluates the gap between potential and actual yields of rice across South-East Asian countries, including Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines, and shows ways to augment rice production in the region.

    South-East Asia accounts for about 40 per cent of international rice exports but the region is also a substantial consumer of rice. The researchers note that by 2050, owing to increasing populations, there will be 18 per cent higher demand for rice in the region.

    With limited scope in other major rice-producing countries like China and India to generate a rice surplus, South-East Asian countries with a larger yield gap must step up production to avoid the need for import in the future, the researchers say.

    Yield gaps

    Rice yield stagnation has been noted in countries like Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam, owing to residential and industrial encroachment on rice-growing areas with little prospect to expand irrigated paddy lands, thanks to inadequate investment and other reasons.

    “Our analysis shows that South-East Asia will not be able to produce a large rice surplus in the future if current trends continue,” says Alice Laborte, an author of the study and senior scientist at the Philippine-based International Rice Research Institute. “Failure to increase yield on existing rice area will drastically reduce the capacity of countries in the region to achieve or sustain rice self-sufficiency and export rice to other regions.”

    Using a data-intensive approach the researchers found that the average gap in rice yield represents about 48 per cent of the “yield potential” estimated for the region although there were significant differences among countries.  Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand were showing larger ‘rice yield gaps’ than Indonesia and Vietnam.

    Closing the “exploitable yield gap” by half through proper crop management and other measures would drastically reduce the need to import rice and generate an “aggregated annual rice surplus of 54 million tons available for export,” the researchers say.

    They recommend specific measures to improve the rice yields such as investments in agricultural research and scaling up of productivity-enhancing technologies to narrow the exploitable yield gap over the next 20 years. Crop management practices such as better use of fertiliser and irrigation, nutrients, water, and pest management are particularly useful in lowland rainfed environments, they add.

    “Closing of yield gaps requires the concerted effort of policymakers, researchers and extension services to facilitate farmers’ access to technologies, information, and markets,” says Laborte.

    Fertiliser prices

    South-East Asia needs to produce more rice with reduced inputs, including land and water, and also leave behind a smaller environmental footprint, says Samarendu Mohanty, Asia regional director of the International Potato Center.

    “With consumption still rising along with population growth, these countries need to accelerate yield growth in targeted countries to remain net exporters of rice,” Mohanty tells SciDev.Net.

    “Increasing rice production in the region will enhance food security not only in the region but also globally,” Laborte says. “Maintaining the capacity of South-East Asia to produce a large rice surplus can help reduce global price volatility and provide a stable and affordable rice supply to many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.”

    “With soaring fertiliser prices, many farmers may choose to reduce fertiliser usage which could lead to lower rice production,” she adds.

    According to Mohanty, fertiliser prices have skyrocketed in the past several months with the Ukraine war making it even worse; in February alone, fertiliser prices went up by 40 per cent.

    “The wet season paddy crop in Asia, [the crop of] the main growing season, which is just a couple of months away, will be severely impacted by high prices and shortages in fertiliser,” says Mohanty.

     

    This piece has been sourced from SciDevNet

    Image: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0).

    Sri Lanka’s Political Turmoil Risks Derailing the Economy Further

    East Asia Forum
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    Sri Lanka’s Political Turmoil Risks Derailing the Economy Further

    Sri Lanka is facing unprecedented political turmoil, and with the economy in a tailspin it is in its weakest state in decades. The country is staring down the barrel of a sovereign debt default and is exposed to external shocks.

    By Anushka Wijesinha

    Usable foreign exchange reserves are at just a few weeks of imports (estimated at below US$200 million), and there are shortages of fuel, gas and electricity. Banks and businesses are short of dollars for trade transactions and households are struggling to get basic food items.

    President Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced his request for support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in March 2022 as a precursor to pursuing a sovereign debt restructure. He has appointed a three-member group of eminent experts to advise him on multilateral engagement. Ensuring that the government can come to an agreement with the emergency lender — with political consensus and public acceptance — is crucial.

    Political consensus around economic policies in Sri Lanka has always been elusive. In recent political cycles, economic reform agendas have been promptly reversed by the next government, resulting in policy whiplash and macroeconomic damage. This trend must be reversed. Political consensus in key reforms areas, such as fiscal adjustment, market-based pricing of energy, rationalising state expenditure — including state-owned enterprise reform and a halt on state sector recruitment — is essential.

    For international institutions and investors awaiting Sri Lanka’s next step, the political turmoil of the last few days is troubling. In the face of public protests, the cabinet of ministers has resigned, forty-two MPs have exited the government, and the newly appointed finance minister quit a day after being appointed. Last month, three MPs begun shaping an anti-IMF narrative. One of them has even suggested that the IMF, and Western institutions in general, are responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine.

    Can’t burden the poor

    As calls for the president to step down have grown, there have been efforts to form an ‘interim government’ with ‘multi-party representation’. Given the divergent political views and economic ideologies among these parties, getting any form of political consensus on an economic reform programme will be challenging. Anti-IMF public posturing, party-led protests due to budget cuts and disagreements on the reform pathway risks derailing urgent macroeconomic stabilisation measures and undermines short-term restructure and reform efforts.

    The Sri Lankan economy has been running on excessive money printing in the last two years. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s balance sheet and the role of the state in the economy has expanded.

    Everything from construction firms to retailers of consumer goods have done well during this time. Inflation is now at over 17 per cent — four times that of two years ago. It is inevitable that an austerity programme will be implemented as part of an IMF bailout package and sovereign debt restructure.

    The fiscal adjustment must be swift, sensible and sensitive to vulnerable groups. Budget cuts need to be prioritised in a way that doesn’t burden poorer households. As the leader of the opposition recently stated, ‘We have to cushion the less fortunate in society, we cannot have social upheaval just in the name of and for the sake of restructuring and reform’.

    Non-urgent capital expenditure projects — notably, infrastructure construction — would be first to be deprioritised, especially amidst cost inflation controversies in projects like the construction of the Central Expressway. The construction sector has been a mainstay of economic activity since the end of the Sri Lankan Civil War in 2009. A cut back would see localised impacts on jobs too — many seasonal farm workers often take on jobs in these projects.

    Political consensus for reform

    Taxes and interest rates must rise and spending needs to be curtailed. This will hit aggregate demand in the economy that has a large state role. Those who benefited from government stimulus payments will be hit hard.

    Domestic political consensus on the core reform areas must accompany efforts to agree on a reform programme with the IMF that sets the stage for a sovereign debt restructure. The IMF and bondholders need assurances of political continuity. Any attempt to push through the reform programme without clear articulation of its rationale, expected outcomes, and measures to protect the vulnerable, will be met with resistance by politicians and the public.

    The government needs to explain what the next year will be like, why the steps being taken are necessary and how it will help ease peoples’ economic pains. Ensuring that key economic decision-making roles are filled by individuals with credibility and competence is essential to building confidence in the government’s economic management and its ability to engage in productive dialogue with the IMF and international creditors.

    The main risk facing Sri Lanka is the fallout of the current political instability on macroeconomic stabilisation efforts. Facing the prospect of a disorderly default, Sri Lankan officials have a decision to make — will they kow-tow to narrow political compulsions, or come together to agree on a common programme that steers the economy out of the current crisis and towards macroeconomic stability? Perhaps the current turmoil in parliament and the public’s growing recognition of the cause of the crisis will be what catalyses a political consensus for reform that has eluded Sri Lanka for so long.

     

    Anushka Wijesinha is an Economist from Sri Lanka and Co-Founder of the Centre for a Smart Future, an independent public policy think tank. He was formerly Advisor to the Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade and Chief Economist of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce.

    This piece has been sourced from East Asia Forum of the Australian National University

     

    Image: UNSPLASH / Alex Azabache

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