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    World Bank’s Latest Report Highlights India’s Economic Growth and Trade Challenges

    OWSA Staff
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    World Bank’s Latest Report Highlights India’s Economic Growth and Trade Challenges

    The report says that India’s rapid economic growth and expansion has had a positive impact on the labour market. Urban unemployment rates, particularly for women, have improved, dropping to 8.5 per cent in early FY24/25. However, youth unemployment remains a concern, standing at 17 per cent.

    The World Bank’s latest India Development Update, titled “India’s Trade Opportunities in a Changing Global Context,” says that while India’s economic growth remains robust, achieving the $1 trillion merchandise export goal by 2030 will require significant strategic adjustments. By focusing on diversifying its export basket and enhancing global value chain integration, India can unlock new growth opportunities and bolster its position in the global economy.

    Despite the impressive growth, the report underscores the need for India to diversify its export portfolio and enhance its participation in global value chains to achieve its ambitious target of $1 trillion in merchandise exports by 2030.

    The report reveals that India remains the fastest-growing major economy, with a robust growth rate of 8.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2023/24. This rapid expansion comes amid a backdrop of global economic uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics.

    The report says, “India maintained its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with a real GDP growth rate of 8.2 per cent in FY23/24. Real Gross Value Added (GVA) grew by 7.2 per cent, up from 6.7 per cent in the previous year.”

    It further said, “On the supply side, growth was primarily driven by a rebound in manufacturing, which grew by 9.9 per cent, after a contraction of 2.2 per cent in FY22/23,” adding that the “manufacturing expansion was primarily supported by declining input costs, as global oil prices moderated.”

    By contrast, the report said, “agriculture growth fell from 4.7 per cent in FY22/23 to 1.4 per cent in FY23/24, majorly due to below normal and uneven rainfall caused by El Nino in the second half of the fiscal year.”

    Economic Growth and Labour Market Insights

    India’s economic performance has been bolstered by significant public infrastructure investment and a surge in household investment in real estate. The buoyant manufacturing sector, which grew by 9.9 per cent, and resilient services activity have been pivotal in supporting overall growth, even as agriculture has lagged. The rapid economic expansion has had a positive impact on the labour market. Urban unemployment rates, particularly for women, have improved, dropping to 8.5 per cent in early FY24/25. However, youth unemployment remains a concern, standing at 17 per cent.

    Yet, the report said that the “urban labour market improved between January and December 2023, particularly for women and youth. In Q3 FY23/24, the urban unemployment rate declined to its lowest levels since Q2 FY17/18, although youth unemployment remained high at 16.5 per cent.”

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its policy rate at 6.5 per cent to manage inflation, which declined from 6.7 per cent in FY22/23 to 5.4 per cent in FY23/24. The moderation in inflation, coupled with a narrowing current account deficit, has contributed to a record-high foreign exchange reserve of $670.1 billion as of early August 2024.

    Medium-Term Outlook and Fiscal Projections

    Looking ahead, the World Bank forecasts that India’s growth will moderate to 7 per cent in FY24/25 but remain robust through FY26/27. This optimistic outlook is supported by ongoing fiscal consolidation, which is expected to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio from 83.9 per cent in FY23/24 to 82 per cent by FY26/27. The current account deficit is projected to stabilize at around 1-1.6 per cent of GDP during this period, reflecting a strong balance of services exports and continued inflows of foreign portfolio investment.

    Trade Challenges and Opportunities

    The World Bank’s report highlights the critical role of trade in sustaining India’s growth trajectory. Despite recent advances in competitiveness through the National Logistics Policy and digital initiatives, India faces rising protectionism globally, including increased tariff and non-tariff barriers. These challenges have constrained the potential for trade-focused investments.

    “India’s robust growth prospects, along with declining inflation, will help reduce extreme poverty,” said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank’s Country Director for India. “To further boost growth, India must harness its global trade potential. While it excels in IT, business services, and pharmaceuticals, there is substantial opportunity for diversifying its export basket into textiles, apparel, footwear, electronics, and green technologies.”

    The report recommends a three-pronged approach to achieving the $1 trillion export target: reducing trade costs, lowering trade barriers, and deepening trade integration. It emphasizes that India’s share in global apparel exports has declined from 4 per cent in 2018 to 3 per cent in 2022, partly due to competition from Bangladesh and Vietnam, which have benefited from China’s exit from labour-intensive sectors.

    Addressing Employment and Export Diversification

    The World Bank report stresses the importance of focusing on labour-intensive exports to boost employment, particularly in the wake of China’s withdrawal from these sectors. The report points out that while India has made strides in high-tech exports like mobiles and services, it has lagged in low-skilled sectors such as apparel and textiles.

    To address these challenges, the World Bank suggests leveraging the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) policy to attract investments in low-skilled manufacturing sectors, which offer significant job potential for young workers. Additionally, integrating more deeply into global value chains could spur innovation and productivity growth.

    Trade Policy and Global Integration

    India’s current trade policy reflects both liberalizing measures and a trend towards protectionism. Recent Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the UAE and Australia represent positive steps towards enhancing trade relations. However, India’s exclusion from major trade blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) limits its broader trade cooperation opportunities.

    The World Bank underscores the need for India to adapt its trade policies to navigate the evolving global landscape. By reducing import tariffs, improving trade facilitation, and engaging more comprehensively in global value chains, India can strengthen its export sector and improve overall economic competitiveness.

    The Story of Living Root Bridges on Film

    OWSA Contributor
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    The Story of Living Root Bridges on Film

    It is a time-tested truism that folk cultures, tribal heritage, and old style of living preserve the ecology in a sustained manner, this package is not only the best way to do it, but also readily available to show it is indeed a most workable way.

    In the rain-soaked hills of Northeast India, nestled in the Eastern Himalayas, lies a unique testament to human ingenuity and environmental harmony — the living root bridges, locally known as Jingkieng Jri. These remarkable structures, crafted from the roots of the Ficus Elastica tree, are the focus of “Entangled Lives,” a documentary directed by filmmaker Avi Kabir, who completed his Master of Fine Arts in Directing and Writing from NYU’s Tisch School of the Arts and is mentored by renowned filmmaker Spike Lee.

    Avi Kabir, an award-winning visionary, brings fresh themes and ideas to the forefront by highlighting social and egalitarian issues. Rather than relying on National Geographic films for inspiration, Kabir immersed himself in the jungles of Meghalaya to capture the astounding, yet little-known phenomenon of the living root bridges.

    Adding depth and visual richness to the documentary is cinematographer Jall Cowasji, whose expertise in both fiction and non-fiction work shines through. Known for his recent project, ‘Lootere’, an action-drama series set in Somalia, and the National Award-winning ‘Qissa-e Parsi: The Parsi Story’. Cowasji’s lens brings an intimate and authentic portrayal of the living root bridges, enhancing Kabir’s narrative with stunning visuals that resonate with the film’s themes of ecological preservation and human resilience.

    To the jungles of Meghalaya

    It is a time-tested truism that folk cultures, tribal heritage, and old style of living preserve the ecology in a sustained manner, this package is not only the best way to do it, but also readily available to show it is indeed a most workable way. On the surface, The Living Root Bridge addresses a basic, practical concern: connecting isolated villages. However, one can also witness how a community responds to natural disasters, finds an empathetic solution, and engages deeply with the environment. Engineers and botanists could look to these structures for inspiration in developing a new class of buildings that coexist with and actively improve the natural environment.

    Avi Kabir, a young but ace film director has shown us the way. He is an award-winning visionary who puts his NYU film direction training into fresh themes and ideas by highlighting social and egalitarian issues. He didn’t put on any National Geographic films to understand it. Instead, Avi Kabir went to the jungles of Meghalaya to record an amazing, yet the little-known phenomenon of “living root bridges”

    Vibrant oral storytelling tradition

    “Entangled Lives” takes audiences deep into the heart of Meghalaya, where isolated villages have thrived for centuries amidst a challenging monsoon climate. In these remote communities, rivers and streams, swollen by incessant rains, become formidable barriers, cutting off villages from one another. Yet, in response to this environmental challenge, the Khasi people have developed an eco-friendly, sustainable solution—the living root bridges.Unlike bamboo bridges that are quickly washed away by floods or iron structures that rust and decay, the living root bridges are enduring, resilient, and profoundly connected to the land they traverse. These bridges, some of which are over a hundred years old, are not just functional structures; they are living, growing entities that embody the deep relationship between the Khasi people and their environment.

    Avi draws inspiration from the vibrant oral storytelling tradition of the Khasi people, bringing to life the tale of a young girl named Aati and her grandmother as they navigate the challenges of crossing a river during the monsoon season. This animated narrative, narrated by the renowned Khasi singer Amabel Susngi and accompanied by the haunting notes of a Duitara, is interwoven with documentary footage that captures the voices and experiences of villagers from Kundeng Thymmai, Kunden Grim, Konglah, and Amkoi.

    Through interviews with ten individuals who speak the native languages of Khasi and War-Jantia, the film provides an intimate glimpse into the lives of those who have lived in harmony with nature for generations. Their stories reveal a deep, almost spiritual connection to the living root bridges and the rivers they span.

    “Living history” of the Khasi Hills

    For the Khasi people, “Entangled Lives” is a celebration of their heritage and a powerful reminder of their ancestors’ wisdom. The living root bridges are more than just practical structures—they’re living pieces of history, offering a glimpse into a way of life that has largely gone undocumented. The film captures the voices of these villagers in their native tongues, bringing their stories to a broader audience.

    But the film’s significance extends beyond the Khasi Hills. For viewers around the world, “Entangled Lives” offers a unique perspective on how communities can respond to natural disasters with empathy, creativity, and a deep respect for the environment. Engineers, botanists, and environmentalists might even find inspiration in these living structures, which show that it’s possible to create buildings that not only coexist with nature but also enhance it.

    What is noteworthy, significant, and worthy of emulation, is that these “living, root bridges” of the Khasi Hills in north-eastern India are as old as the ecology of their habitat.  They are not planned by architects. They are not built by construction companies. They are not fleeced during the payment process by any corrupt “system sharks”.  They pose no environmental dangers. They never collapse like some steel-and-girder bridges in Bihar. And being part of the local ingenuity and ecology, they are friendly to everyone, helpful, and life-sustaining.

    Avi Kabir, the filmmaker, has brought to light this little-known “living history” of the Khasi Hills and the sublime brilliance of its people to craft these pieces of pure art.  Now, upon its release in a few months from now, the Meghalaya Govt is hoping to use his film to support the inclusion of Meghalaya’s “hanging bridges,” made entirely of botanical matter, in the UNESCO Heritage List.

    Link to trailer Entangled Lives: https://www.avikabir.com/entangledlives

    Alok Sinha is a keen environmentalist and agriculture specialist. He is a former Additional Secretary of the Government of India.

    The Revolving Door of Nepali Politics

    East Asia Forum
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    The Revolving Door of Nepali Politics

    The 2022 elections saw Nepali Congress and CPN–UML emerge as the largest parties, but political operations soon ousted former Prime Minister Prachanda, who was replaced by CPN–UML’s Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli. Despite forming a ‘national unity government,’ the coalition lacks a clear agenda and focuses on preserving the dominance of major parties rather than enacting reforms.

    By Anil Sigdel

    Instability is the norm in Nepali politics. The multiparty democratic system revolves around power-hungry politicians, short-lived, unnatural alliances and high-profile corruption cases.

    Following the 2022 elections, Nepali Congress, with 89 seats, and the Communist Party of Nepal–Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN–UML), with 78 seats, are the first and the second largest parties respectively in the 275-seat House of Representatives. Former prime minister Puspa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ previously led a coalition comprised of his party, the Communist Party of Nepal–Marxist Center and CPN–UML. Prachanda, who has served as prime minister for three non-consecutive terms, had maintained his grip on power by switching sides in quick succession.

    But Prachanda began to punch above his weight of 32 seats in the parliament by taking steps that further widened the differences between him, the CPN–UML and the opposition party Nepali Congress. The result was that CMN–UML and Nepali Congress formed a coalition to oust him. Prachanda left office on 6 July 2024, replaced by CPN–UML leader Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli.

    Oli has been at the centre of this political intrigue, securing victories on several fronts. Oli succeeded in his vengeance against Prachanda for his betrayals, deprived his former comrade Madhav Nepal from possibly becoming prime minister with Prachanda’s support and thwarted internal power rivalry. On 20 October 2020, during his last prime ministership, Oli unconstitutionally dissolved the parliament to escape internal mutiny led by some senior leaders vying against his consolidation of personal power in the party.

    Reluctant to decentralise power

    As far as the Nepali Congress is concerned, by forming an allegiance with Oli and CPN–UML, Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba prevented his party from being further tarnished by allegations of corruption against high profile members. The same is true for Oli himself. In mid-2024, Nepali Congress leader Gagan Thapa assured Nepalese citizens that his party would continue to play the opposition role until the next elections — this has now turned out to be either a lie or ignorance.

    The Rastriya Swatantra Party’s (RSP) aggressive anti-corruption campaigns have disrupted the old guards’ — Congress and UML — dominant politics. The RSP is the fourth largest party in the current parliament. It had supported Prachanda’s government and held important ministries, including the powerful Home Ministry. While RSP supporters praised its anti-corruption mobilisation, its leaders, including its President Rabi Lamichhane, have been scrutinised for not abiding by the rule of law either.

    Given Nepal’s past experiences — a continually rotating door of prime ministers, parachuted to power by changing alliances — despite its numerical superiority in the parliament, the new ‘national unity government’ comprised of Nepali Congress and CPN–UML is unlikely to perform any better. Unlike in the past, when the big parties united to achieve larger objectives, such as issuing a new constitution in 2015, there is no such agenda this time.

    Any amendments to the constitution, as envisaged by this coalition, are easier said than done. This coalition is just a cover to secure the dominant position of the big parties. Any efforts to reconfigure the federal structure or electoral system, despite its problems, will face huge resistance. In terms of inclusion and more autonomy for federal provinces, the big parties are always reluctant to decentralise power.

    Backdoor agreement

    On the question of economic policies, some positive changes to fix problems such as inflation and fuel growth are welcome. But this was equally possible under the previous government. In terms of geopolitics, the current instability plays to India’s advantage, who that fears any stable, powerful leadership in Nepal may seal consequential agreements with China.

    The major cause of instability in Nepal is the deterioration of morality in politics. Democracy, with all its imperfections, is the best system for Nepal and the answers to the problems of democracy must be more democracy. Unfortunately, that is not happening.

    Oli alone leads the CPN–UML and Prachanda heads the Maoist Center. Nepali Congress’s Sher Bahadur Deuba is apparently hoping to secure a sixth term as prime minister as per his understanding with Oli.

    These party leaders hold meetings and make decisions about the country that party rank and files or their parliamentary members have no idea about, let alone the ordinary citizens. All that matters in these parties is extreme loyalty to their leaders. Nepali Congress and CPN–UML came to an agreement that Oli would serve as prime minister for two years before handing over to Deuba. These two party leaders went to the Presidential office at midnight to announce this backdoor agreement.

    There is an implicit consensus among parties and leaders that given Nepal’s parliamentary equation, a full five-year election cycle is not possible. Parties are balancing each other out by encircling others when they are in power and siding with parties on the opposite side of the political spectrum when coming to power. Some regional leaders have become ministers for a record number of times.

    Ideological polarisation is not prominent in Nepal’s parliament — rather the ultimate objective of politicians is to hold ministerial positions and enjoy access to state resources. New layers of governments in the federal provinces have added more challenges and opportunities. Political fragmentation and power sharing will continue to dominate the country’s politics. Stability, with an effective government, seems a far cry for Nepal.

    This piece has been sourced from the East Asia Forum of the Australian National University.

    Anil Sigdel is founder of Nepal Matters for America, Washington DC.

    Sri Lanka Faces Rising Child Malnutrition Amid Controversial Import Tax Decisions

    OWSA Contributor
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    Sri Lanka Faces Rising Child Malnutrition Amid Controversial Import Tax Decisions

    Amid the economic challenges, State Minister for Finance Ranjith Siyambalapitiya introduced new regulations aimed at addressing corruption in the cereal import sector. Previously, import permits for essential grains were intended to protect local farmers but led to a black market and corruption.

    Sri Lanka is grappling with severe child malnutrition while the government maintains high import duties on essential cereals, a move criticized by opposition lawmakers.

    Rohini Kaviratne of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya political party highlighted alarming statistics from UNICEF, revealing that one-third of Sri Lanka’s children are suffering from acute malnutrition. The crisis is exacerbated by high food prices and a lack of access to nutritious meals, particularly affecting children in the Nuwara Eliya District and plantation areas.

    Kaviratne, addressing Parliament on Wednesday, emphasized the dire need for intervention. “The statistics are shocking,” she said. “One-third of our children are malnourished. Food insecurity due to the ongoing economic crisis is a major factor. We are facing a national health emergency.”

    In response to the crisis, Education Minister Susil Premajayantha announced an extension of the school mid-day meal program to help address the issue. However, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa argued that providing school meals alone is insufficient. “Child malnutrition starts in early childhood, affecting brain development. We need broader measures, such as price controls on essential food items. The government has failed to address the egg mafia, which keeps the price of eggs high—the cheapest source of protein,” Premadasa said.

    Kaviratne also criticized the government for its failure to address the broader implications of malnutrition. “If children are going hungry, their mothers are likely facing severe hardship as well. In some cases, mothers are forced to go without food themselves to feed their children,” she remarked.

    New regulations

    In contrast, Education Minister Premajayantha defended the government’s economic stabilization efforts. He pointed out that food prices have decreased significantly from two years ago, citing a drop in the price of green chilies from 1,200 to 400 rupees per kilo. “Inflation has decreased and production has improved,” he stated. “The malnutrition data is based on inflation from previous years. We have made progress.”

    Amid the economic challenges, State Minister for Finance Ranjith Siyambalapitiya introduced new regulations aimed at addressing corruption in the cereal import sector. Previously, import permits for essential grains were intended to protect local farmers but led to a black market and corruption. Siyambalapitiya announced that import permits for key grains like green gram, cowpea, and undu gram would be removed. Instead, higher import duties would be imposed—300 rupees per kilo for green gram (up from 40 rupees) and cowpea (up from 70 rupees).

    “These permits were intended to support local producers but ended up fostering a black market,” Siyambalapitiya explained. “By removing the permits and increasing import duties, we aim to protect farmers’ profits.”

    However, critics argue that the high import taxes contribute to high prices for protein sources, including poultry products and dairy, further straining household budgets. Rice, a staple food, is also taxed at 65 rupees per kilo to support local farmers.

    The debate continues as Sri Lanka struggles to balance economic protectionism with the urgent need to address rising child malnutrition.

    Mock Drill on Pandemic Preparedness conducted in Ajmer

    OWSA Staff
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    Mock Drill on Pandemic Preparedness conducted in Ajmer

    The exercise, aimed to evaluate the readiness and response of the National Joint Outbreak Response Team composed of experts from human health, animal husbandry and wildlife sectors, provided valuable insights to inform future strategies to enhance India’s preparedness and response to zoonotic disease outbreaks.

    A comprehensive national mock drill, “Vishanu Yuddh Abhyas” (Virus War Exercise), was conducted in Ajmer district of Rajasthan state, from August 27 to August 31, 2024 to assess pandemic preparedness. This exercise, conducted under the aegis of National One Health Mission (NOHM), aimed to evaluate the readiness and response of the National Joint Outbreak Response Team (NJORT) composed of experts from human health, animal husbandry and wildlife sectors. A mock zoonotic disease outbreak scenario was created to simulate a real-world outbreak.

    Union health and family welfare minister, J P Nadda appreciated this first-of-its kind exercise, highlighting the role of the One Health Mission by fostering collaborations to address health of humans, animals and plants and environment holistically and in a sustainable manner.

    The drill involved multiple stakeholders, including the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying (DAHD), Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change (MoEF&CC), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Rajasthan State Administration, State Directorate of Health Services (DHS), State Veterinary Department and State Forest Department and the AIIMS Jodhpur BSL-3 Lab (one of the 19 National BSL-3 Network Laboratories).

    The drill was structured around two key components: a) Investigation and identification of the virus responsible for the mock outbreak; and b) Actions initiated to control the spread of illness across human and animal populations. Independent observers monitored the response. The response of the district and state teams, directed by NJORT was found to be mostly prompt and appropriate. The exercise also identified some areas requiring further improvement.

    The Vishanu Yuddh Abhyas provided valuable insights to inform future strategies to enhance India’s preparedness and response to zoonotic disease outbreaks, fostering a coordinated and efficient approach across all relevant sectors, the PIB said.

    Is the UN Ready for a Second Trump Presidency?

    Inter Press Service
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    Is the UN Ready for a Second Trump Presidency?

    According to a report on CNN last October, Trump was quoted as saying that if elected again to the White House, he would reinstate and expand a travel ban on people from predominantly Muslim countries, suspend refugee resettlements and aggressively deport those whom he characterized as having “jihadist sympathies.”

    By Thalif Deen

    The Communist Manifesto of a bygone era, authored by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, begins with an implicit warning: “A spectre is haunting Europe — the specter of Communism.”

    And today another spectre is haunting – this time at the United Nations — the spectre of a second Trump presidency.

    When Trump first took office back in January 2017, he either de-funded, withdrew from, or denigrated several UN agencies and affiliated institutions, including the World Health Organization, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), the World Trade Organization (WTO), the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the UN Human Rights Council, among others.

    In the unlikely event of a second Trump presidency, should the UN be preparing for another political nightmare?

    According to a report on Cable News Network (CNN) last October, Trump was quoted as saying that if elected again to the White House, he would reinstate and expand a travel ban on people from predominantly Muslim countries, suspend refugee resettlements and aggressively deport those whom he characterized as having “jihadist sympathies.”

    He cited the Hamas attacks on Israel as the reason for his hard-line immigration policies. Trump also said he would ban travel from Gaza, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, Libya “or anywhere else that threatens our security.”

    Danger, unpredictability

    When Trump first walked onto the podium at the General Assembly hall, he looked at the hundreds of foreign delegates from 192 countries, and reportedly asked: “How the hell did you guys get into this country?”, according to a joke in circulation in the UN’s watering hole, the delegate’s lounge.

    There was also a widespread rumour of a new slogan promoting tourism during Trump’s presidency: “Visit us on a one-way ticket – and we will deport you free”.

    Meanwhile, at a 2017 White House meeting, Trump apparently said all Haitians “have AIDS’; that Nigerians should “go back to their huts in Africa’; and questioned why US should welcome people from “shithole countries” in Africa, according a report in the New York Times.

    And he also displayed his ignorance by asking whether UK was a nuclear power – and whether Nepal (which he pronounced as Nipple) and Bhutan (pronounced Button) were part of India?

    Asked about a possible second Trump presidency, Kul Gautam, a former UN Assistant Secretary-General and Deputy Executive Director of the UN children’s agency UNICEF told IPS: “Yes, there will be considerable potential danger and a great deal of unpredictability to the UN system in the unlikely event of a 2nd Trump Presidency”.

    However, he pointed out, the extent of the danger will depend on what happens in the US Congress. If Trump wins and the US House of Representatives and the Senate are also captured by the Republicans, the UN could face a mortal risk.

    And also, recall that earlier this year the House Republicans zeroed out funding for the UN regular budget and more than a dozen UN entities, including UNICEF and WHO.

    Disastrous

    So, the worst-case scenario for the UN would be Trump in the White House and Republican majority in both chambers of the US Congress.

    But if one or both Houses of Congress are held by the Democratic Party, Trump alone cannot cause irreparable harm to the UN. Still, US defunding of certain UN agencies will cause great harm to those UN entities and the important services they provide, said Gautam, author of “My Journey from the Hills of Nepal to the Halls of the United Nations”. (www.kulgautam.org).

    Stephen Zunes, Professor of Politics and Director of International Studies at the University of San Francisco, who has written extensively on the politics of the United Nations, told IPS: “Yes, this would indeed be disastrous and UN funding for these agencies and affiliated institutions would indeed be cut”.

    It should be noted, however, that Biden has already eliminated U.S. funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) and has threatened to eliminate funding to any organization that has Palestine as a full member. Though Harris has generally been less hostile to international legal norms than Biden, I have seen no indication that Harris would reverse these policies, said Zunes.

    “Given Trump’s disrespect for domestic laws and institutions, it’s not surprising he would have a similar contempt for international laws and institutions,” he declared.

    Samir Sanbar, a former UN Assistant Secretary-General and head of the former Department of Public Information (DPI), told IPS besides welcoming senior UN officials at Trump Tower, across from U.N. Headquarters, the former US President also enjoyed being seated at the main table at the luncheon for heads of state at the opening of the General assembly session.

    US threats to cut funds

    Under a Trump presidency, he said, there is however a serious risk of blocking payments for certain U.N. Agencies and Funds, particularly UNRWA, which offers assistance to Palestinian refugees and advocates their right of return. Also, WHO and possibly UNICEF would face cuts particularly for their assistance in Gaza.

    “And I read somewhere that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner would prefer to clear Gaza from its two million human beings in order to turn it into a tourist resort,” said Sanbar.

    Commenting on the on-again, off-again US threat to cut funds to the UN, Gautam said a blessing in disguise of drastic US defunding of the UN would be for the organization to seriously explore a more robust alternative long-term funding mechanism of the UN and reduce its heavy dependence on US funding.

    Olof Palme proposal

    To avoid the perpetual threat and blackmail of the US and occasionally some other member states defunding the UN, “I am all for resurrecting, reconsidering and reformulating a very creative proposal presented by former Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme way back in 1985.

    Palme proposed that no country should be asked or allowed to contribute more than 10 percent to the UN’s budget.”

    That would have meant a significant reduction in the US share of the UN budget from 25 per cent to 10 per cent; and a modest increase in contribution by most other countries.

    “I am FOR the Palme proposal to reduce the UN’s over-dependence on a handful of large donors, and correspondingly decrease the undue influence of those countries in the appointment of high-level UN jobs, and other decision-making processes”.

    “Today, many UN activities benefit from voluntary contribution of governments, as well as the private sector, and philanthropic foundations. I believe we must seriously explore more such innovative possibilities, including income from the Global Commons and the Tobin Tax, to liberate the UN from the perpetual threats of arbitrary cuts and defunding by major donors.”

    Modest amount

    And it is worth recalling that in the larger scheme of international finance, in a world economy of $103 trillion and global military budgets of $2.4 trillion per year, the UN’s regular annual budget is less than $4 billion, and the totality of the UN system’s budget for humanitarian assistance, development cooperation, peace-keeping operations, technical assistance and other essential normative functions, amounts to less than $50 billion per year.

    “This is a modest amount to respond to the huge challenges that the UN is asked and expected to help tackle. To put it in perspective, the total UN system-wide spending annually is far less than one month’s US spending on defence, and less than the US military aid to Israel or Ukraine alone.”

    With similar investment, bilateral aid and national budgets of much bigger proportions could hardly achieve results comparable to what the UN and international financial institutions achieve, declared Gautam.

    Image: United Nations

    Afghan Foreign Minister Predicts Major Shift in Diplomatic Relations

    OWSA Contributor
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    Afghan Foreign Minister Predicts Major Shift in Diplomatic Relations

    Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi expressed concerns about the diminished credibility of some Afghan diplomatic missions in European countries, attributing this to a lack of engagement with the government in Kabul.

    In a recent statement, Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, forecasted a forthcoming transformation in the country’s diplomatic landscape. Speaking after attending the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Cameroon, Muttaqi emphasized the positive developments expected in Afghanistan’s international relations.

    Muttaqi made these remarks during a meeting with diplomats at the Islamic Emirate’s Consulate in Istanbul, following his visit to Türkiye. He highlighted several recent diplomatic successes, noting that the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan have all accepted Afghan representatives, with hopes for further advancements in the near future.

    Despite these gains, Muttaqi expressed concerns about the diminished credibility of some Afghan diplomatic missions in European countries, attributing this to a lack of engagement with the central government in Kabul.

    In his address, Muttaqi also underscored the interim government’s achievements in maintaining control over the country and combating terrorism. He cited the ban on poppy cultivation and narcotics as significant accomplishments. He urged the consulate staff in Istanbul to enhance their services to the Afghan community, emphasizing the importance of respect and support for Afghan expatriates and migrants.

    Propaganda war

    Earlier, during the the 50th session of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)  Foreign Ministers in Yaoundé, Cameroon, Muttaqi had urged Islamic nations to lift sanctions on the Islamic Emirate and bolster their diplomatic ties with Afghanistan.

    Muttaqi stated that Afghanistan has become the target of a propaganda war and that reports about the country are being published in a biased and one-sided manner.

    In Cameroon, Muttaqi spoke about the achievements of the Islamic Emirate over the past three years and added that despite the interim government’s fight against terrorism and narcotics, economic sanctions have still been imposed on Afghanistan.

    According to Muttaqi, the right of the Islamic Emirate to be recognized has also been unjustly denied.

    He further mentioned that while the Islamic Emirate has been combating terrorism and narcotics within the country, economic sanctions have still been imposed on the interim government, and the recognition of the Islamic Emirate has been unjustly withheld.

    Muttaqi stated: “The right to recognition has been unfairly taken away from the Islamic Emirate, and its undeniable right to representation in specialized international organizations has also been denied. Additionally, Afghanistan has become the target of an organized propaganda war and biased, prejudiced reports.”

    He called on the member countries of the OIC to strive towards lifting the sanctions imposed on the Islamic Emirate. He also emphasized the need to establish relations based on mutual bilateral interests with the member states of the OIC.

    Muttaqi added: “Our primary request is that all countries should make serious efforts to release Afghanistan’s central bank assets and to lift the travel restrictions on officials of the Islamic Emirate.”

    Sri Lanka’s High Alcohol Taxes Spur Surge in Illicit Consumption

    OWSA Contributor
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    Sri Lanka’s High Alcohol Taxes Spur Surge in Illicit Consumption

    The tax burden on alcohol has significantly increased. As of July 1, 2023, taxes on absolute proof alcohol were raised from 5,000 rupees to 6,000 rupees per liter, with an additional 840 rupees bringing the total duty to 6,840 rupees.

    As Sri Lanka grapples with a severe economic downturn, high alcohol taxes are driving consumers toward illegal alternatives, according to Harry Jayewardena, head of Distilleries Corporation Sri Lanka (DCSL). Jayewardena’s remarks come amid a significant downturn in the company’s sales over the past year.

    In a recent annual report to shareholders, Jayewardena highlighted the unintended consequences of the government’s current taxation policies on the legal alcohol sector. “Looking ahead, it is evident that the current tax policies, if maintained, will have detrimental effects on the legal alcohol sector,” he warned. The skyrocketing prices due to these taxes are pushing consumers towards illegal substances, including homemade alcohol known as “kasippu,” which poses significant health risks.

    Jayewardena emphasized the urgent need for policymakers to reassess their approach. “The affordability of legal alcohol is likely to decrease further, pushing consumers towards harmful, illegal alternatives,” he said. He called for a balanced taxation policy that could make legal alcohol more accessible while also deterring the use of illicit products.

    Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, marked by a dramatic depreciation of its currency, has exacerbated the situation. In 2022, the Sri Lankan rupee plummeted from 200 to 360 per US dollar, following a series of inflationary policies and currency interventions. Although the rupee has since stabilized to around 300 to the US dollar amid deflationary measures, the economic instability persists.

    Punitive alcohol taxes

    The tax burden on alcohol has significantly increased. As of July 1, 2023, taxes on absolute proof alcohol were raised from 5,000 rupees to 6,000 rupees per liter, with an additional 840 rupees bringing the total duty to 6,840 rupees. These hikes have led to a 58 per cent rise in alcohol prices, widening the price gap between legal and illicit alcohol markets.

    In addition to the excise taxes, alcohol is subject to other sales taxes, including an 18% value-added tax and a 2.5 per cent Social Security Contribution Levy. These combined taxes have not only pushed legal alcohol out of reach for many but also fueled the growth of illegal alcohol production and sales.

    Despite increased raids and efforts to curb illicit alcohol, the proliferation of kasippu continues. YouTube videos detailing how to make this homemade liquor have garnered millions of views, and there are reports of government workers and others turning to kasippu as a more affordable option. While a standard bottle of legal arrack costs around 3,500 rupees, a quarter bag of kasippu is priced between 300 and 350 rupees, highlighting the stark cost disparity.

    As Sri Lanka navigates its economic crisis, the challenge remains to address the fallout from punitive alcohol taxes and to strike a balance that protects both public health and economic stability.

    China–Nepal Strategic Partnership Stumbles over BRI and Boundary Issues

    East Asia Forum
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    China–Nepal Strategic Partnership Stumbles over BRI and Boundary Issues

    China’s attempts to change its relations with Nepal into a strategic partnership, focusing on the Belt and Road Initiative and the Boundary Management System, have encountered significant challenges due to disagreements.

    In 2019, Xi Jinping visited Nepal and declared that China–Nepal relations would change from a comprehensive partnership to a strategic partnership. The focus of relations has shifted towards enhancing strategic and security. But neither country can come to an agreement on the two most important pillars of this new relationship, calling its sustainability into question.

    These pillars are the Boundary Management System (BMS) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Xi proposed the BMS — which commits both countries to return people who are found crossing the border illegally. Nepal signed an agreement, but it has yet to be ratified. In 2017, Nepal signed the Memorandum of Understanding to join the BRI, but some point out Nepal’s failure to implement projects. In June 2024, China and Nepal conducted two important meetings to discuss border-related issues and BRI implementation. The outcome of these meetings was bleak, partially because of disagreements over the BRI and BMS.

    On 20 June 2024, representatives of China and Nepal met in Beijing for a meeting of the Joint Expert Group to conduct a discussion related to border issues, but did not produce a bilateral statement. The lack of a bilateral statement encourages speculation. One particular speculation is that this meeting failed to yield positive outcomes to resolve border issues, which could be because of the failure to reach a consensus on ratifying the BMS.

    While the Chinese side pressed Nepal to ratify the BMS, Nepal urged China to follow the mandates of the boundary protocol, which require both sides to first engage in border investigation, then meet and resolve border issues and finally ratify the BMS. In Nepal, border inspection is a priority because there have been increased cases of encroachment, illegal construction and missing border pillars.

    Tibet’s political stability

    China’s push for a BMS is driven by the need to establish a comprehensive security mechanism at the border as soon as possible, to guard the political stability of Tibet. Since the Tibetans’ 2008 protest in Nepal, Chinese scholars and leaders have pushed for border pacification to be China’s top priority in Nepal. Tibetans are one of the primary targets of the BMS. Reports claim that the BMS also sought to repatriate Tibetans fleeing Tibet within a week, though the content of the agreement is yet to be made public.

    Following the border talk, on 26 June 2024 China and Nepal held the 16th Meeting of the Nepal–China Diplomatic Consultation Mechanism. Instead of joint statements, after the meeting Nepal made a press release, while China published news about the meeting. It is evident that a lack of agreement on the BRI is a major issue. For instance, the Chinese side mentioned the BRI twice in approximately 300 news reports. In contrast, Nepal’s press releases do not mention the BRI at all.

    The BRI has become a sensitive issue in Nepal. Nepal is reluctant to accept high-interest loans because it is wary of getting trapped in unsustainable debts owed to China, which has happened with Sri Lanka and other countries. In 2023 the above concerns spurred a controversy in Nepal, when the Chinese embassy mentioned that Pokhara International Airport was built under the BRI.

    Some Nepalese lawmakers also expressed concern over the lack of transparency in the implementation of BRI projects. But China is not interested in providing grants, which has led to BRI diplomatic stagnation. Nepal also worries about maintaining strategic balance with India, which is Nepal’s largest trading partner.

    Strategic partnership

    Amidst the contention over these issues, it is interesting to observe other aspects of the press releases. The Chinese side highlighted: ‘The Nepali side reiterated its firm adherence to the one-China principle and will never allow any force to use its territory for anti-China activities’.

    But this commitment, usually evident in press releases or joint statements, is missing from the Nepali side. Nepal only mentioned that ‘Vice Minister Weidong appreciated Nepal’s commitment to the One China Principle’. There is no mention of zero tolerance for anti-China activities, and no mention of Tibet or Taiwan as integral parts of China. This departure from tradition underscores contention in the relationship.

    With the change from bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, China’s pressure to sign the BMS underlines its role in China’s overall strategic and security objectives in Nepal. These two meetings revealed that the BRI and BMS constitute China’s two most important diplomatic and security elements, driving its interest in Nepal.

    Without consensus on these two issues, the strategic partnership between the two remains peripheral. Nepal’s avoidance of mentioning the BRI and its commitment to anti-China activities is a small but significant gesture of resistance to China’s hegemony.

    In July 2024, Nepal witnessed the formation of a new government that catapulted Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), to the prime ministership in a coalition government with the Nepali Congress party. The Chinese government have already pressured Oli on the BRI.

    But the situation is different this time. Nepali Congress has long been opposed to Nepal accepting BRI loans because of Nepal’s high debt burden and argue Nepal should only accept BRI grants. Oli needs Nepali Congress support and will not be easily swayed by China, which further complicates the implementation of the BRI.

    Dolma Tsering is a postdoctoral researcher at the International Center for Cultural Studies, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taiwan.

    This piece has been sourced from the East Asia Forum of the Australian National University.

    Climate Change, Biodiversity and the Bakarwals of Pakistan

    OWSA Contributor
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    Climate Change, Biodiversity and the Bakarwals of Pakistan

    As climate change accelerates, this system is faltering. In summer, the northern regions, once rich with grass, now yield less vegetation due to shifting agricultural practices. Potatoes and turnips replace the lush grasses, forcing Bakarwals to buy fodder.

    By Kaif Afridi

    In the rugged terrains of Dara Adam Khel, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Taweez Gul and his family traverse a landscape increasingly imperiled by climate change. As 24-year-old Taweez guides his herd of sheep and goats across the arid fields, the very essence of his nomadic existence is under threat.

    “For generations, our family has roamed these lands, moving with the seasons. We have no permanent home, spending roughly half the year in one place,” Taweez explains, his voice tinged with concern. “But the changing climate has altered everything. Summers have grown unbearably hot, making life in our tents excruciating. Winters force us to migrate to the Punjab regions.”

    Taweez and his twelve-member family, originally from Paktia in Afghanistan, have long relied on their nomadic lifestyle to sustain themselves. But the escalating temperatures and shifting weather patterns have made this way of life increasingly difficult. The scorching heat, once manageable, now drives them from their traditional campsites as the intense temperatures pose health risks, especially for the children.

    Repercussions beyond immediate hardships

    The situation is not unique to Taweez’s family. Across the region, climate change is reshaping the lives of Pakistan’s Bakarwals, a group of nomadic pastoralists whose existence hinges on the rhythms of nature. These changes are more than just inconvenient; they are economically and ecologically damaging.

    Dr. Muhammad Nafis, Chairman of the Environmental Science Department at Peshawar University, sheds light on the broader implications. “The traditional migration patterns of the Bakarwals are now disrupted by unpredictable climate shifts. Historically, they moved from the plains of Attock, Haripur, and Fatehpur to the cooler highlands of Kaghan and Naran during the summer months. Their migration was a finely tuned system of moving with the seasons.”

    However, as climate change accelerates, this system is faltering. In summer, the northern regions, once rich with grass, now yield less vegetation due to shifting agricultural practices. Potatoes and turnips replace the lush grasses, forcing Bakarwals to buy fodder – a luxury many cannot afford. As a result, the cost of livestock has surged, impacting the broader economy.

    Moreover, erratic temperature fluctuations complicate their seasonal migrations. Intense heat during the monsoon season accelerates glacier melt, leading to flooding that devastates pastures and livestock alike. These environmental changes have led to higher instances of disease among both the Bakarwals and their herds.

    The repercussions extend beyond the immediate hardships faced by the nomads. Dr. Nafis explains that the wool, meat, leather, and dairy industries, which depend heavily on the products supplied by the Bakarwals, are suffering. The reduced supply from nomadic pastoralists has resulted in higher prices for mutton, leather, and other products, contributing to inflation and economic instability.

    Intertwined fate of humanity and nature

    The impact on biodiversity is equally alarming. Climate change disrupts ecosystems, affecting a wide array of species. For instance, Dr. Nafis points out that the sparrow population is dwindling. Rising temperatures interfere with the hatching of sparrow eggs, leading to lower reproduction rates and a decline in their numbers.

    Disruptions like these ripple through ecosystems, causing imbalances that affect various species and their interdependent roles. The loss of biodiversity not only threatens individual species but also undermines the health of entire ecosystems, which are crucial for sustaining life and economic activities.

    Dr. Nafis emphasizes the need for increased awareness and action. “The challenges faced by the Bakarwals are a microcosm of the broader impacts of climate change. We must raise awareness at both governmental and public levels to address these issues. Understanding the effects of climate change and implementing measures to mitigate its impact is crucial for preserving both nomadic traditions and biodiversity.”

    For Taweez Gul and many like him, the future of their way of life hangs in the balance. The drying pastures and shifting climates are not just abstract issues but daily realities that threaten their livelihood and cultural heritage. As climate change continues to alter the environment, the resilience of communities like the Bakarwals is tested, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive strategies and comprehensive solutions.

    In the face of these growing challenges, the story of Taweez Gul and the Bakarwals is a poignant reminder of the intertwined fate of humanity and nature. Addressing climate change is not just about preserving environments but also about safeguarding the diverse ways of life that depend on them.

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