Political observers say that there seems to be little the PPP can actually do apart from repeatedly threatening that it will withdraw its support for the ruling coalition if plans to build new canals on the Indus are not dropped.

In a significant breakthrough, the Pakistan Federal and the provincial government of Sindh have agreed to resolve the escalating dispute over a controversial canals project through dialogue, following weeks of mounting political tensions and public protests.

The development came after a telephone conversation between Adviser to the Prime Minister Rana Sanaullah and Sindh Senior Minister Sharjeel Memon, during which both leaders committed to pursuing a negotiated resolution to the conflict. According to a statement from Memon’s spokesperson on Sunday, the two sides emphasised that cooperation, not confrontation, must guide the way forward.

“We are ready for negotiations with Sindh,” said Sanaullah, who also serves as President of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Punjab. “Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Nawaz Sharif have directed that Sindh’s reservations be removed.”

The canals project, primarily the TP Link Canal initiative in the Cholistan region of Punjab, has been the subject of intense criticism from the Sindh government, opposition parties, and civil society. Launched on February 15 by Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz and Chief of Army Staff Gen Asim Munir, the project aims to bring irrigation to the arid lands of South Punjab. However, it has triggered fears in Sindh of further marginalisation in the allocation of water resources from the Indus River.

Sharjeel Memon reiterated Sindh’s long-standing position, saying that the province and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) have “serious reservations” about the canal initiative. “The PPP wants fair distribution of water for the people of Sindh under the 1991 Water Accord,” he said, adding that the party remains open to dialogue with Islamabad.

Legislative Climax

The dispute has deepened in recent months, marked by nationwide demonstrations and fiery political rhetoric. On 18 April, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari issued a stern warning to the ruling PML-N at a large rally in Hyderabad, cautioning that his party would withdraw its support for the federal government if the project was not shelved.

“We will not be part of a government that ignores the legitimate concerns of Sindh,” Bilawal declared to a roaring crowd at Hatri Bypass Ground. “If our objections are acknowledged but the project still continues, then that’s not dialogue – it’s deception,” he said to the massive crowd.

The tension reached a legislative climax in March, when the Sindh Assembly passed a unanimous resolution condemning the project. The province has consistently argued that increasing water diversion to Punjab via the TP Link Canal violates both the spirit and the letter of the 1991 agreement.

Responding to these grievances, Minister of State for Religious Affairs Kesoo Mal Kheal Das on Sunday attempted to ease concerns, pledging that the federal government would take no unilateral action on the matter. Speaking to the media in Hyderabad, he said, “No such action would be taken that would upset any province. The centre will not proceed without addressing Sindh’s concerns.”

He also stressed that the canal project had not received formal approval from the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC), nor had it been discussed in the Council of Common Interests (CCI), the constitutional forum tasked with resolving inter-provincial disputes.

Kheal Das emphasised that future decisions would be made only through consensus. “This step cannot be taken forward until the reservations of Sindh’s people are allayed,” he said, adding that he had personally discussed the issue with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Dialogue, not Discord

Amid rising tensions, Kheal Das’s vehicle was reportedly targeted by protesters in Thatta last week. He downplayed the incident, stating that the perpetrators had been identified and that some arrests had been made. “I do not believe the PPP was behind this. I consider them a democratic party, and they have never endorsed such acts,” he said.

He also acknowledged Bilawal’s role in representing Sindh, calling him a “national leader” who had the right to raise his province’s concerns. “Protests and rallies are part of a democracy,” Kheal Das said, “but there should be no incitement. The solution lies in dialogue, not discord.”

The disagreement over the TP Link Canal is not merely a technical dispute but has grown into a symbol of broader anxieties about inter-provincial equity and federal fairness. At its core, the issue touches on the complex politics of water sharing in a country already facing acute shortages and climate-related challenges.

Though the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has maintained that its decisions on water allocation have been in accordance with legal guidelines, critics argue that recent moves have disproportionately favored Punjab, exacerbating historical grievances.

Political analysts view the latest shift toward dialogue as a positive step, though they caution that real progress will depend on transparency and a willingness to compromise on all sides.

“This is a national issue and requires a national solution,” said one senior political observer. “If handled poorly, it could deepen provincial rifts. But if handled wisely, it could set a new precedent for cooperative federalism.”

As both the PPP and PML-N prepare for negotiations, the spotlight now turns to Islamabad, where the fate of the canals project – and the cohesion of Pakistan’s fragile federal structure – may soon be decided at the negotiating table rather than on the streets.

Empty Threats?

The PPP appears to have realised that it must distance itself from the canal projects if it wishes to keep public sentiment in its favour because the backlash has been severe in Sindh. The party has suffered a hit to its political capital because it is perceived as being tightly tethered to the current regime.

But, according to political observers, there seems to be little the PPP can actually do apart from repeatedly threatening that it will withdraw its support for the ruling coalition if plans to build new canals on the Indus are not dropped. Insiders say that Prime Minister Sharif has other plans up his sleeve to cling on to power in case the PPP ever withdraws support. A patch-up with Imran Khan’s PTI is also a possibility.

Doubts persist over the PPP’s claim of being blindsided on the canals project. While the party denies that President Zardari approved it, public anger in Sindh has intensified amid fears over dwindling Indus water levels. Early protests by nationalists and farmers were ignored until the Sindh government intervened. Tied to the Green Pakistan Initiative, the canals were presented as a national priority. Initially hesitant, the PPP only took a firm stance as public outrage grew. Punjab’s actions, including opening the Taunsa-Panjnad link canal, further alienated Sindh. Decisions made without consulting the province have once again sparked deep unrest and resentment.

As an editorial in the Dawn newspaper says, “The country can ill-afford a dispute of this nature at this juncture. With KP and Balochistan already reeling from unrest and violent upheaval, a Sindh-Punjab water dispute will greatly complicate the task of attaining social stability. The CCI (Council of Common Interests) must be convened at the earliest, and public representatives should be given a fair chance to voice their constituents’ concerns. The state should be putting out fires, not lighting new ones.”