Pakistan’s mass deportation of Afghan refugees has drawn rights groups’ condemnation for violating humanitarian norms. The UN warns of returns to Afghanistan’s economic collapse, drought, and women’s rights curbs, urging a halt until conditions improve.

The latest round of dialogue between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul has ended without progress, deepening mistrust and triggering renewed tensions across the region. The talks, mediated by Turkish officials, were expected to break the deadlock over cross-border security and terrorism concerns. But after three days of negotiations, both sides left without a joint declaration or a clear path forward.

Officials familiar with the discussions said Pakistan demanded guarantees from Kabul to act against groups allegedly involved in attacks on Pakistani soil. The Afghan side, however, urged Islamabad to share verifiable intelligence and stop using security accusations as a pretext for internal political gain. According to Afghan negotiators, Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies have repeatedly blamed Afghanistan for its domestic instability, while failing to address the root causes of militancy within its borders.

The third round of the Istanbul talks concluded with both delegations accusing each other of intransigence. Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warned that “if dialogue does not work, action will continue against terrorists and their facilitators.” Afghan representatives called the remarks “unconstructive” and said Pakistan’s approach risked undermining regional cooperation.

Despite mediation efforts by Turkish officials, the meeting ended in a stalemate – a development that observers say has directly influenced Pakistan’s decision to accelerate the expulsion of Afghan nationals living within its borders.

Deportations Seen as Pressure Tactic Against Kabul

Shortly after the talks collapsed, Islamabad announced a renewed campaign to deport Afghan citizens from Pakistan, linking the move to national security concerns. Officials in Pakistan framed the crackdown as part of a broader effort to protect its territory from militants allegedly operating out of Afghanistan.

But for many in Kabul and international circles, the timing of the mass deportations suggests that Pakistan is using human displacement as leverage. The ‘Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan’, revived earlier this year, has targeted both undocumented and registered Afghan refugees. Local reports and human rights monitors say that arrests have intensified since the Istanbul talks failed.

In Punjab’s Jhelum district and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, police have been conducting raids and detentions of Afghans, with thousands facing imminent deportation. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees confirmed that Pakistan was forcing return of registered refugees, despite international protection agreements.

Afghan officials and humanitarian organisations view this as collective punishment. A senior Afghan diplomat in Ankara said, “Pakistan could not secure what it wanted through talks, so it has turned its frustration against Afghan refugees. This will not bring security or stability – only more suffering.”

Afghans Bear the Brunt of Diplomatic Breakdown

The mass deportations have drawn condemnation from rights groups, who argue that Pakistan’s policy violates basic humanitarian norms, especially the right to non-refoulement. The UN human rights office warned in August that Afghan refugees are being forced back into a country still reeling from economic collapse, drought and restrictions on women’s rights. This is happening as the window opens to a harsh winter. The United Nations and several aid agencies urged Pakistan to halt deportations until conditions in Afghanistan improve.

For decades, millions of Afghans have lived in Pakistan, many since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Although some have integrated into local communities, the political and security climate has shifted sharply since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. Pakistan now portrays the refugee population as a potential security threat, even as most have no links to militant groups.

Afghan analysts argue that Islamabad’s decision to tie refugee policy to failed diplomacy is counterproductive. “Pakistan’s mass deportations are not a security solution. They are a political message – a way to pressure Kabul after talks fell apart,” said a Kabul-based academic who studies regional relations.

Meanwhile, Afghan citizens expelled from Pakistan face uncertainty and hardship upon return. Many report losing livelihoods, education and property accumulated over decades. Aid agencies say Afghanistan lacks the capacity to absorb tens of thousands of returnees, warning of a potential humanitarian crisis.

Regional Stability at Stake

The breakdown of the Istanbul talks and the ensuing deportations underscore the fragile state of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. While Islamabad insists it is acting in self-defence, critics say its policies risk alienating the very neighbour it needs for border security and trade cooperation.

Kabul has urged Pakistan to resume dialogue and separate humanitarian issues from counter-terrorism concerns. So far, however, Islamabad appears to be pursuing unilateral action rather than reconciliation.

As thousands of Afghans are loaded onto trucks for forced return, the crisis reflects not just the failure of diplomacy but also the erosion of trust between two interdependent nations. Unless talks resume on a more equal footing, analysts warn, South Asia may face yet another cycle of displacement, resentment and instability.

Image: IOM 2025/Mohammad Osman Azizi