Sri Lanka’s census reveals rapid ageing: fewer children, more elders dependent on a shrinking workforce. Policymakers must ease economic-social strains, empower workers, and secure growth, cohesion, and future welfare.

The latest nationwide survey reveals a seismic shift in the age profile of Sri Lanka, with the share of children shrinking and the elderly proportion growing – signalling a departure from decades of youthful-growth to one of rapid ageing and dependency pressures.

According to the 2024 Census of Population and Housing, conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics Sri Lanka (DCS), the island’s total population stands at 21.78 million. Those aged under 15 now make up just 20.7 per cent, down from 25.2 per cent in 2012 – a drop of 4.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, individuals aged 65 and above have risen to 12.6 per cent, from 7.9 per cent in 2012 – a 4.7 point increase. The working-age group (15-64 years) stands at 66.7 per cent, marginally lower than the 66.9 per cent recorded in 2012.

As a result, the dependency ratio – that is, the number of dependents per 100 working-age persons – has risen from 49.4 per cent in 2012 to 49.8 per cent in 2024. In short, fewer young people are entering the workforce at the very time the number of older dependents is climbing.

Narrow Window for Demographic Dividend

For much of its modern history Sri Lanka benefited from a demographic dividend: a large working-age cohort supporting children and older persons, which helped drive growth. That window is now closing. As one local commentator put it: “The island is greying faster than expected, and the economic implications are beginning to surface.” With labour migration, limited growth in productivity and fewer young entrants into the workforce, the engine of growth is losing steam.

Particularly concerning is that the ageing is uneven. Urban centres such as Colombo show lower dependency ratios (around 43 per cent), while districts in the south and hill country have reached up to 55 per cent, meaning more than one dependent for every two working-age persons.

The implications are significant: lower tax bases, rising public spending on pensions and health, and a shrinking pool of workers in sectors such as agriculture, garments, services and construction.

Policy Strain and Social Support Gaps

Sri Lanka is facing growing pressures on its social protection systems. The share of older persons means demands on pensions, health-care and informal care are increasing rapidly. One analyst noted that public pensions now absorb close to 10 per cent of government spending, despite the fact they cover a minority of the workforce. At the same time, health spending hovers around 1.5 per cent of GDP – among the lowest in Asia.

Household sizes are shrinking (from 4.3 persons a decade ago to about 3.5 now), fewer children are available to care for ageing parents, and most care is delivered at home, often by women who thus drop out of the formal labour force.

Fertility, Migration and Structural Risks

The decline in child population reflects multiple causes: fewer births, delayed marriages, and large-scale migration of young workers – many of the most likely to have children themselves. The slow growth rate puts Sri Lanka in the category of “growing old before growing rich” – a common challenge in ageing low-income countries.

Unless addressed, the combination of a shrinking labour pool and rising dependency will press key sectors and public finances. For example, the 2024 census showed a sex ratio of 93.3 males per 100 females, reflecting female-dominated demographics across most regions.

Experts argue this is a turning point for Sri Lanka’s economy and society. A senior lecturer at the University of Colombo noted that older persons should be regarded as an asset – but only if their skills are utilised and productivity lifted.

Policy implications are wide ranging: retirement ages may need to increase; female labour force participation must rise; productivity improvements and automation will become essential; and migration policies may need readjustment.

On the social side, expanding health-care capacity for chronic conditions, scaling up geriatric care, and reforming pensions to cover informal workers are urgent tasks. The census data show that regions where young people leave for the cities are already showing accelerated ageing patterns.