The UN has documented a sharp 57 per cent rise in security incidents in Afghanistan amid Taliban rule, escalating Pakistan border violence, humanitarian woes, and severe restrictions on women and girls, signalling deepening challenges despite apparent stability.

In a sobering assessment released this week, the United Nations has painted a complex portrait of Afghanistan under Taliban governance, where a dramatic increase in security incidents coincides with fragile stability, devastating cross-border violence with Pakistan, and a deepening humanitarian and human rights crisis.

The latest quarterly report from UN Secretary-General António Guterres to the Security Council and General Assembly details 3,687 security and safety incidents between February 1 and April 13, marking a 57.7 per cent increase from the same period in 2025. Despite this uptick, the Taliban maintains firm control over the country with no significant armed opposition threatening their rule.

Taliban Consolidation Amid Limited Armed Opposition and ISIS-K Threat

The report notes that anti-Taliban groups, including the Afghanistan Freedom Front, National Resistance Front, National Mobilization Front, and Afghanistan Green Trend Movement, claimed responsibility for just 18 attacks during the period, primarily shootings, rocket attacks, and grenade assaults in provinces such as Badakhshan, Baghlan, Herat, Kabul, Kandahar, and others. The UN verified 16 of these.

“From 1 February to 13 April, armed opposition groups posed no significant challenge to the de facto authorities’ control over the national territory,” the report states. However, it warns that ISIS-K (Islamic State Khorasan Province) retains operational and combat capabilities, even without claiming major attacks in the period.

UN personnel faced heightened risks, with 92 security incidents affecting them – up from 62 the previous year.

Devastating Civilian Casualties from Pakistan-Afghanistan Hostilities

One of the report’s most alarming sections addresses escalating tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, which resulted in 764 civilian casualties (372 deaths and 392 injuries) between January 26 and March 31. Most were caused by airstrikes and cross-border shelling.

The deadliest incident occurred on March 16, when a Pakistani airstrike hit the Omid Drug Rehabilitation Hospital in Kabul, killing at least 269 people and injuring 122 – predominantly patients. Pakistan claimed it targeted terrorist infrastructure, while the Taliban accused Islamabad of striking civilians.

Another major event on April 27 involved cross-border shelling in Kunar province, causing 88 civilian casualties, including at Sayed Jamaluddin Afghani University. On April 10, unidentified gunmen attacked near a Shia shrine in Herat’s Injil district, killing 11 civilians, including women and children.

These events underscore the volatile regional dynamics, with hostilities displacing around 94,000 people since February, over half women and children.

Ongoing Abuses Against Former Officials and Corporal Punishments

Human rights concerns remain acute. The UN documented violations against former Afghan government officials and security forces, including five killings, 20 arbitrary arrests, and eight cases of torture, despite Taliban amnesty promises.

Taliban forces carried out 228 instances of corporal punishment, affecting 29 women, 196 men, and three boys for offenses like adultery, running away from home, homosexuality, alcohol consumption, and gambling.

Children at Risk and Widespread Grave Violations

Children continue to bear a heavy burden, with the UN verifying around 300 grave violations affecting at least 200 children (including 67 girls) from January to March. Killings, injuries, attacks on schools and hospitals, and denial of humanitarian access dominated.

Humanitarian Crisis Deepens as Funding Falls Short

Nearly half of Afghanistan’s population – 21.9 million people – requires humanitarian assistance in 2026. As of late April, only 14 per cent of the $1.7 billion needed had been funded. Agencies reached 4.7 million people in the first quarter, but acute food insecurity affects 17.4 million, with millions more needing malnutrition treatment.

Climate disasters compounded the crisis: floods in March-April impacted 73,300 people across 31 provinces. Drought threatens agriculture, the backbone of rural livelihoods in an El Niño year.

Mass Returns Strain Resources

Over 548,000 Afghans returned between January and April (mostly from Pakistan and Iran), adding to the 2.9 million who returned in 2025. Many face severe shortages of housing, jobs, and services, heightening vulnerability, especially for women and girls.

Fragile Economy and Persistent Gender Apartheid

Macroeconomic stabilization masks deeper issues: growth lags population increases, per-capita income declines, trade disruptions (over 90 per cent drop via Pakistan corridor), rising inflation, and higher food costs prevail.

Restrictions on women and girls are among the most pressing concerns. Girls remain banned from secondary education for a fifth year, affecting 2.6 million children. Women face limits on movement, work, and public life, including mandatory male guardians and dress codes. Decree No. 12 on judicial separation exacerbates discrimination. Taliban policies also bar Afghan women UN staff from offices.

Media freedoms are curtailed, with stations suspended for content deemed unfavourable.

Call for Renewed Engagement

António Guterres reiterated commitment to the Doha process for reintegrating Afghanistan internationally, urging structured Taliban engagement with UNAMA and voluntary, safe returns for refugees. “The objective… is an end state in which Afghanistan is fully reintegrated into the international community, meeting its international obligations and ensuring the rights and well-being of all of its people,” he wrote.

Analysts note that while Taliban control appears solid, underlying fragilities – from border conflicts and economic woes to systemic exclusion of women – risk long-term instability. International donors face a dilemma: balancing humanitarian imperatives with pressure for rights improvements.

As Afghanistan navigates these intertwined challenges, the UN report serves as a urgent call for sustained attention and coordinated action to prevent further deterioration.