As Pakistan debates its next steps, time is running out for more than a million Afghan refugees. Without swift and compassionate action, not only will the lives of countless individuals be upended, but the fragile stability of the region could face further setbacks.

More than one million Afghan refugees in Pakistan are facing a critical moment as their Proof of Registration (PoR) cards expired on end-June this year, leaving their legal status in doubt and triggering widespread anxiety about deportation and financial ruin.

While the Pakistani government has announced its stand. Mohsin Naqvi, Pakistan’s interior minister said that the refugees had to leave the country. However, there has been no official confirmation of this stand, and bureaucrats say that the remarks were made during an informal meeting with journalists. They said that Pakistan is still weighing its options.

In the meantime, Afghan refugees with decades-long ties to the country fear a wave of forced returns or the collapse of livelihoods built over generations. For many, the lack of renewed documentation threatens not just their stay, but also their property, businesses, and personal security.

As Pakistan debates its next steps, time is running out for more than a million Afghan refugees. Without swift and compassionate action, not only will the lives of countless individuals be upended, but the fragile stability of the region could face further setbacks.

For now, Afghan families wait – grappling with a fearsome choice: stay and risk deportation or leave behind everything they’ve built in search of uncertain safety.

A Life in Limbo

The government of Pakistan has yet to announce a formal decision on whether the expired PoR cards will be renewed. According to Minister of State for Interior Talal Chaudhry, discussions are ongoing at the federal cabinet level. One proposal under consideration includes a temporary extension of PoR cards, while another envisions long-term visas under a new foreign investment-oriented visa policy.

“The new visa policy aims to attract investment into Pakistan, and Afghan nationals could benefit from its provisions,” Chaudhry said. But without concrete action, refugees remain trapped in limbo.

The policy vacuum has left hundreds of thousands of Afghan families fearing abrupt deportations or forced sales of homes and businesses. Many say they would be compelled to liquidate assets at a fraction of their value – assets painstakingly built over decades.

Economic Displacement

The economic footprint of Afghan refugees in Pakistan is significant. Ahmad Shah, a businessman from the tribal region, estimates that members of his Dostokhel tribe alone own properties in Peshawar – registered under others’ names – worth an estimated Pakistani Rs. 52 billion. He further revealed that the tribe contributed over Rs 14 billion in foreign remittances last year.

“If the government decides to deport all Afghan refugees, we’ll be forced to sell our benami properties for pennies,” Shah said.

Organizations like Beyond Boundaries, an initiative of the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), are urging the government to adopt a more humane and economically sound approach. “These refugees have contributed immensely to Pakistan’s economy,” said a representative from the initiative. “They should not be stripped of their rights or wealth through abrupt deportation orders.”

Beyond Boundaries is pushing for streamlined visa procedures and long-term integration policies that would allow Afghan-origin entrepreneurs to continue their economic contributions to the country.

Escalating Deportations and Fear

Despite a slowdown in broader repatriation efforts in recent months, deportations have intensified again since April 1, as part of Pakistan’s “Plan for the Repatriation of Foreigners in an Illegal Situation.” The crackdown, initially launched in October 2023, is driven by mounting security concerns following a surge in terrorist attacks.

According to UN estimates, nearly 1.3 million Afghans have been repatriated since late 2023. Of the approximately 1.6 million Afghan refugees still residing in Pakistan, more than one million currently have expired PoR cards.

Deportations are often sudden and disruptive. Many returnees describe hurried exits and asset losses, while those who remain in Pakistan report living under constant fear of police raids – even those with valid documentation.

“People are hiding, children are being pulled out of school, and entire communities are terrified,” said an aid worker based in Islamabad. “It’s not just undocumented migrants who are affected; even legal refugees are being caught up in this dragnet.”

International Alarm

The rapid pace and scale of returns have drawn concern from global humanitarian leaders. During a recent visit to a major border crossing, Roza Otunbayeva, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General (SRSG) for Afghanistan, sounded the alarm over what she described as a humanitarian crisis in the making.

“What should be a positive homecoming moment for families who fled conflict decades ago is instead marked by exhaustion, trauma, and profound uncertainty,” said Otunbayeva. “Afghanistan cannot absorb this shock alone.”

So far in 2025, more than 1.3 million Afghan returnees have crossed back into their homeland, further straining a country already battling widespread poverty, drought, and economic collapse. Nearly 70 per cent of Afghanistan’s population lives in poverty, and the influx of returnees threatens to overwhelm limited local resources.

Women and children are especially vulnerable. Many return without access to healthcare, education, or safe housing, while humanitarian operations in Afghanistan remain critically underfunded.

Otunbayeva called for immediate and integrated international action – both to support humanitarian needs and to stabilise returnee communities. She urged donors and regional governments not to abandon the Afghan people.

“Do not turn away,” she said. “What we are witnessing are the direct consequences of unmet global responsibilities. We must act now – with resources, with coordination, and with resolve.”

The United Nations is advocating for regional cooperation, particularly among Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian countries, to ensure that repatriation is voluntary, dignified, and safe.

“Afghanistan’s stability hinges on shared responsibility,” Otunbayeva concluded. “The cost of inaction will be measured in lives lost and conflicts reignited.”