According to Oxford Net Zero, a platform of researchers hosted by the University of Oxford, in order to have a reasonable chance of bringing global temperatures back to 1.5 C, fossil fuel emissions must fall by 43 per cent.

By Oritro Karim

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, surpassing 2023. This can be attributed to heightened reliance on fossil fuels and the reluctance of industries worldwide to pivot to green energy practices. The rapid acceleration of global temperatures has alarmed scientists, with many expressing concern over the environmental, economic, and social implications of the worsening climate crisis.

In light of this fact, ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked: “Humanity’s torching the planet and paying the price.”

In addition to being the hottest year, 2024 is also the first year in recorded history to have an average temperature of over 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. According to data from the European Union’s (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average temperature for 2024 is expected to be 1.60 C, marking a significant jump from last year’s average of 1.48 C.

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty that has been signed by 196 countries at the UN. The objective of this agreement is to reduce carbon emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 and mitigate the climate crisis. Samantha Burgess, the deputy-director of C3S) confirmed that the rising temperatures do not make the Paris Agreement implausible but rather, makes the climate crisis much more urgent of an issue.

According to Oxford Net Zero, a platform of researchers hosted by the University of Oxford, in order to have a reasonable chance of bringing global temperatures back to 1.5 C, fossil fuel emissions must fall by 43 per cent. Major corporations and governments around the world have announced plans to reduce carbon emissions to achieve these goals.

Fossil Fuel Consumption Habits

Although industries around the world have slowly begun to adopt healthier fossil fuel consumption habits and alternative sources of energy, global consumption of coal has nearly doubled in the past three decades. On December 18, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a comprehensive report titled Coal 2024, that analysed global consumption of coal in the 2020s and provided a forecast of coal use for the next three years.

The report states that in 2023, the global coal demand reached a record 8,687 metric tons, marking a 2.5 per cent year-over-year increase. The global demand for coal is expected to have grown by 1 per cent in 2024. The increased demand for coal can be attributed to the relatively low supply of hydropower.

China is ranked as the world’s biggest consumer of coal, accounting for up to 56 per cent of 2023’s global coal consumption, equivalent to 4,833 metric tons of coal. It is estimated that in 2024, Chinese coal consumption has increased by 1.1 per cent, or an additional 56 metric tons.

Approximately 63 per cent of China’s coal consumption is used to fuel the nation’s power sector. Despite a measured global increase in renewable energy use, China’s generation of electricity has declined in recent years.

According to the IEA, fixing the world’s over-reliance on coal consumption begins with China. “Weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.

Climate-Driven Natural Disasters

Scientists and economists have predicted that the acceleration of the climate crisis will have severe environmental and economic impacts going forward. According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, increased temperatures could cost the global economy approximately 38 trillion dollars in damages. Maximilian Kotz, a researcher at the institute, states that much of these losses can be attributed to decreased agricultural yields and labour productivity, as well as damage to climate-sensitive infrastructures.

2024 has seen a host of climate-driven natural disasters that have devastated communities. Extreme weather, such as cyclones, monsoons, wildfires, heatwaves, hurricanes, and rising sea levels, continue to endanger the lives of millions of people. According to estimates from the UN, approximately 305 million people around the world will be in dire need of humanitarian assistance for support due to worsening natural disasters.

Other environmental impacts of climate change include deforestation, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, water cycle disruptions, and impacts on agricultural outputs, all of which have disastrous consequences for life on Earth. If global temperatures and carbon emissions are not reduced by 2030, these consequences could significantly increase in severity.

Widespread Species Loss

Scientists have warned that it is critical for global temperatures to not exceed 2 C. The world would experience widespread species loss, including several species critical for the sustenance of human life, including fish and many species of plants. Alice C. Hill, a Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) senior fellow for energy and the environment, stated, “We’re headed toward disaster if we can’t get our warming in check and we need to do this very quickly.”

Another climate researcher at Potsdam, Anders Levermann, predicts that economic and environmental impacts will be far more severe for developing countries than for major commercial powerhouses such as the United States and China. “We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer,” said Levermann.

Furthermore, the countries that are the least responsible for climate change (developing nations) are expected to suffer the greatest economic and environmental impacts as they have the fewest resources “to adapt to its impacts.”

Photo Credit: UNICEF/Farhana Satu

This piece has been sourced from Inter Press Service.