Nearly 16 million Afghans face crisis-level hunger despite improved harvests, with numbers set to climb to 19 million this winter as poverty, lost incomes and restrictions on women leave families without the means to buy food or access care.

Nearly one in three people in Afghanistan is going hungry even as markets stock food and harvests have improved in some areas. A senior United Nations humanitarian official warned this week that the crisis is driven less by empty shelves than by empty pockets, and that the coming winter will push millions more into emergency conditions.

Olga Cherevko, spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Afghanistan, told reporters in Kabul that 15.9 million people faced acute food insecurity at crisis level or worse in September and October 2026. Of these, 3.4 million were already living in emergency conditions – one step from famine. With the lean season approaching, the figure is projected to rise to 19.2 million people, or 38 per cent of the population, including five million in emergency hunger between November 2026 and April 2027.

“A harvest can improve, markets can have food, but families can still go hungry,” Cherevko said after visits to southern and northeastern provinces. “I saw first-hand that this crisis is not simply about whether food exists, but whether people can afford it, whether they can earn an income, access basic services or whether they have anything left to fall back on when the next shock comes.”

Food is present but purchasing power has collapsed

Years of conflict, successive droughts, economic isolation and reduced international assistance have hollowed out household resilience. Improved rainfall supported a stronger agricultural season in 2026, yet many families will enter the winter with depleted assets and few income opportunities. Day labourers, a critical source of earnings for the poorest, can often cover only half the cost of a basic food basket.

Cross-border tensions with Pakistan, trade disruptions, inflation and the return of large numbers of Afghans from neighbouring countries have added further pressure. Humanitarian funding shortfalls mean aid agencies can reach only a fraction of those in need. Around one-third of nutrition treatment sites have closed or suspended services, largely because of funding cuts, raising the risk of irreversible harm for children.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, the global standard for measuring hunger, recorded record levels of acute malnutrition for the August-October period. More than four million children aged six months to five years are projected to need treatment for acute malnutrition in 2027, including over one million expected to suffer the severe form of the condition.

Women’s restrictions threaten the response itself

Cherevko linked the hunger crisis directly to restrictions on women and girls imposed by the Taliban authorities. Women’s access to health care, education and employment is closely tied to nutrition outcomes, particularly through maternal health and the ability of families to provide diverse diets for children.

A UNICEF analysis released earlier this year warned that continuing bans on secondary education for girls and limits on women’s work could cost Afghanistan up to 20,000 female teachers and 5,400 female health workers by 2030. Female representation in the civil service has already fallen. These losses would further weaken already stretched health and education systems at a time when child malnutrition is rising.

“Humanitarian aid can and does save lives today,” Cherevko said. “But only sustained, inclusive investment in livelihoods, services and economic opportunity can help people build lives that are less dependent on emergency assistance tomorrow.” She called for greater opportunities for women to participate in economic life as part of any long-term solution.

Winter will test remaining coping mechanisms

The lean season from November to April is traditionally the hardest period of the year. Snow and cold close mountain roads, reduce casual labour opportunities and increase heating costs. Families that have already sold productive assets, taken on debt or reduced meals will have little left to fall back on. The most severe conditions are projected in provinces including Badakhshan, Badghis, Daykundi, Ghor, Samangan, Sar-e-Pul and rural Ghazni.

Aid agencies stress that action is needed before, not after, households exhaust their options. Immediate priorities include getting food assistance to those already in emergency conditions, protecting livestock and productive assets, supporting farmers before critical planting windows close, and keeping health, nutrition and water services functioning.

Longer-term investments remain essential

Beyond emergency relief, Cherevko and other UN officials have urged investment in agriculture, rural livelihoods, local markets, employment, water systems and health and nutrition services. Declining international funding has forced agencies to prioritise the most vulnerable, leaving millions without support. Earlier assessments by the World Food Programme and others showed that day labourers and urban poor are particularly exposed as wages lag behind food prices.

Afghanistan’s crisis sits within a broader pattern of climate shocks and economic fragility across parts of South Asia. Successive droughts between 2021 and 2024 eroded household assets even before the current season’s improvements. Without sustained support that addresses both immediate hunger and the underlying drivers of poverty, the cycle of crisis is likely to continue.

International attention and funding gaps

The United Nations has repeatedly flagged Afghanistan as one of the world’s most severe hunger hotspots. Yet funding for the humanitarian response has fallen short of needs for several years. Agencies report that without additional resources before winter, more nutrition centres will close and more families will be forced into irreversible coping strategies such as selling the last female livestock or withdrawing children from school.

Cherevko’s message was clear: the window for preventing a deeper emergency is closing. “We must act before winter, not after families have exhausted their options.” The numbers translate into a simple reality – food exists in Afghanistan’s markets, but for nearly 16 million people, and soon for 19 million, it remains out of reach.