Global temperatures are set to exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold, with current policies pointing to 2.8°C of warming by 2100, according to the latest UN Environment Programme assessment.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled “The Point of Return,” on Wednesday, delivering a stark assessment of the world’s climate trajectory just weeks ahead of the COP31 summit in Antalya, Turkey. The report concludes that limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with little or no overshoot is no longer possible after decades of insufficient action. Under current policies, temperatures are projected to rise by 2.8°C by the end of the century and continue climbing thereafter.

Even if every country fully implements its existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and sustains similar efforts, warming would still reach about 2.6°C. In the most optimistic scenario – full delivery of NDCs plus additional net-zero pledges – the rise would be limited to 2.1°C. Both figures are higher than last year’s projections, largely because of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and upward revisions of historical emissions data. New climate pledges submitted since the previous report have made only a negligible difference.

Lowest Possible Overshoot Pathway

UNEP outlines what it calls the “lowest possible” 1.5°C overshoot scenario. In this pathway, peak warming would be held to 1.7 to 1.8°C around the middle of the century, after which temperatures would return to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with roughly a 50 per cent chance of success. Achieving this requires greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18 per cent from 2025 levels by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040.

By contrast, full implementation of current NDCs would deliver only 5 to 8 per cent cuts by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035 relative to 2025 levels. That implies average annual reduction rates of about 5.7 per cent between 2025 and 2035 – steeper than the pathways previously modelled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The report also estimates that returning temperatures to 1.5°C after overshoot would require the removal and permanent storage of roughly 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over the course of the century, equivalent to about eight years of current global CO₂ emissions. Socioeconomic and technological hurdles make this scale of carbon dioxide removal highly uncertain.

“Overshoot is not surrender,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message accompanying the report. “We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stressed that every additional fraction of a degree and every extra year spent above 1.5°C intensifies climate impacts, including the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires already affecting nations this year.

Renewables Offer a Glimmer of Hope

Despite the grim overall picture, the report highlights genuine progress in certain areas. Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, renewable electricity capacity has expanded three times faster than anticipated, with solar photovoltaic installations growing seven times faster. Climate policies have produced measurable emissions reductions in multiple countries and sectors. Evaluations of more than 220 policies show that measures in the electricity sector cut emissions by an average of 9 per cent, while carbon pricing instruments achieved reductions of 5 to 13 per cent across sectors during the periods examined.

These successes, however, remain unevenly distributed. Getting onto the lowest-overshoot pathway demands that successful policies be rapidly replicated, expanded and sustained worldwide. The first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement called for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the annual rate of energy-efficiency improvements by 2030, among other goals. Extending those targets consistent with the lowest-overshoot scenario would require at least tripling renewable electricity capacity by 2035 (and 4.5 times by 2040 relative to 2025), cutting primary energy intensity of GDP by at least 30 per cent by 2035 and 40 per cent by 2040, and sharply reducing the shares of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply.

Coal’s share of electricity generation would need to fall by at least 75 per cent by 2035 and be effectively phased out globally by 2040. Methane emissions would have to drop at least 25 per cent by 2035 and 40 per cent by 2040 relative to 2025 levels. Current trends in absolute greenhouse-gas emissions – including energy-related CO₂, road-transport emissions and non-CO₂ gases such as methane – are still moving in the wrong direction, although some stabilisation is projected under existing policies by 2030.

Implications for Vulnerable Regions

The findings carry immediate relevance. Higher peak temperatures amplify risks of extreme heat, intensified monsoons, sea-level rise, glacial melt and agricultural disruption. South Asian nations, home to hundreds of millions of people dependent on climate-sensitive livelihoods, face heightened threats to food security, water resources and human mobility. Reports have already documented how climate change could displace tens of millions across the region by mid-century if warming is not constrained.

The report arrives at a politically challenging moment. The United States’ formal exit from the Paris framework has raised projected warming by approximately 0.1°C, underscoring how national policy shifts can alter global outcomes. Meanwhile, emissions growth has slowed among most G20 economies, yet the overall pace remains far short of what science demands.

The Path Forward Before COP31

UNEP emphasises that the second Global Stocktake offers an opportunity to reaffirm priority areas, extend quantified targets to 2035 and 2040, and make existing goals more concrete. Nations still have the tools – proven policy instruments, rapidly falling renewable costs and growing experience with carbon pricing and efficiency measures – to close the gap. The central message is urgency: every five years of emissions at today’s levels pushes peak warming higher by about 0.1°C. Without swift, deep and sustained cuts, the lowest possible overshoot window will close.

Experts at UNEP say that the Emissions Gap Report 2026 does not abandon the 1.5°C goal. Instead it reframes the challenge: minimise the height and length of the overshoot and chart a credible return path. The concur that whether governments treat the report as a call to accelerated action or another missed opportunity will be tested at COP31 and in the national policies that follow. 

Focus keyphrase: UN Emissions Gap Report 2026 2.8 degrees global warming

Tags: climate change, Emissions Gap Report 2026, UNEP, global warming, 1.5 degrees, Paris Agreement, COP31, carbon emissions, renewable energy, temperature overshoot,