Balochistan’s unrest is not merely a security issue. It has a deep historical context and is a political and economic crisis that requires long-term commitment and genuine reform for which, the Pakistani government must prioritise dialogue, fair governance, and equitable resource distribution.

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest and most resource-rich province, has been the centre of a long-running insurgency by Baloch separatist groups. The region has witnessed a sharp escalation in violence, with the recent train hijacking by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other high-profile attacks underlining the deteriorating security situation.

What are the historical roots of the conflict? Who are the key actors involved? What are the broader geopolitical and economic factors fuelling the insurgency?

Rich in natural resources, Balochistan is the largest, least populated and least developed province in Pakistan. Armed groups demand greater control of the province’s natural resources and political autonomy. Baloch separatists have attacked civilians from other ethnicities throughout the province.

Balochistan’s discontent with Pakistan dates back to the country’s formation in 1947. At the time of independence, the province comprised four princely states: Kharan, Makran, Las Bela, and Kalat. While the first three states acceded to Pakistan, Kalat sought independence. However, in 1948, Pakistan forcibly annexed Kalat, sparking the first armed rebellion.

Over the decades, Balochistan has experienced multiple waves of insurgency:

1. 1954–1955: Triggered by the One-Unit policy, which merged Balochistan with West Pakistan, leading to widespread resentment.
2. 1958: The Khan of Kalat, Nawab Nauroz Khan, led an unsuccessful rebellion against Pakistani rule.
3. 1963–1969: Another uprising demanded greater autonomy and withdrawal of Pakistani troops.
4. 1973–1977: Inspired by Bangladesh’s independence, Baloch leaders resisted Islamabad’s control, leading to a major military crackdown.
5. 2000s–Present: The current wave of insurgency, fueled by economic exploitation and military repression, has been the most prolonged and intense.

Recent Escalation in Violence

1.     Train Hijacking in Bolan Pass

One of the most dramatic incidents in recent years was the hijacking of a passenger train in Balochistan’s historic Bolan Pass. The BLA claimed responsibility, asserting that this was aimed at securing the release of imprisoned fighters. The Pakistani Army conducted a rescue operation, reporting dozens of militant casualties, while the BLA claimed to have inflicted heavy losses on security forces.

2.     Suicide Attack in Noshki

On March 16, the BLA carried out a suicide bombing targeting security forces in Noshki, reportedly killing several soldiers. The BLA exaggerated its claims of casualties, but the attack demonstrated the group’s enhanced operational capacity.

3.     Expansion of BLA’s Military Capabilities

Experts note that the BLA has evolved into a highly sophisticated militant organization with well-trained suicide squads, guerrilla forces, and intelligence units. The group’s Majeed Brigade has been behind several high-profile attacks, including operations targeting Pakistani and Chinese workers involved in infrastructure projects.

Drivers of the Insurgency

Economic Exploitation and Marginalisation

Despite being rich in natural resources such as natural gas, coal, gold, and copper, Balochistan remains one of the poorest regions in Pakistan. The benefits of resource extraction projects largely bypass the local population, fuelling resentment. Many Baloch see their province’s wealth being siphoned off to benefit Punjab and Sindh, leaving their own communities in abject poverty.

Infrastructure projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), particularly the Gwadar Port, have further inflamed tensions. While Islamabad touts these projects as development milestones, local communities fear demographic changes and an influx of outsiders that could make them a minority in their own land.

Ensuring that Balochistan benefits from its natural resources, along with investments in education and infrastructure, could reduce local support for insurgent groups. Transparent revenue-sharing agreements and job quotas for locals in major projects could help rebuild trust.

Military Suppression and Human Rights Abuses

Pakistan’s counterinsurgency tactics, including enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and military crackdowns, have further alienated the Baloch population. Amnesty International reports that over 10,000 Baloch have gone missing since 2011, with many allegedly abducted by security forces.

Families of missing persons have repeatedly held protests, seeking justice for their loved ones. The Pakistani state’s failure to respond meaningfully has deepened distrust, making it easier for insurgents to recruit disillusioned youth.

Ending enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings would be a critical step toward rebuilding trust between the Baloch people and the Pakistani state. Establishing independent commissions to investigate these cases could help bring accountability.

Political Marginalisation

Baloch nationalist parties have long accused Islamabad of sidelining their voices. The controversial 2024 elections saw pro-military politicians win at the expense of nationalist leaders, exacerbating the sense of political disenfranchisement.

Unlike other provinces, where mainstream political parties compete for votes, Balochistan has seen a persistent strategy of using handpicked leaders loyal to Islamabad. This has rendered provincial governments ineffective and deepened the perception that Balochistan is ruled by outside forces rather than its own people.

A genuine political reconciliation process that includes Baloch nationalist leaders could help address grievances and reduce violence. Past attempts at dialogue have largely failed due to Islamabad’s reliance on military solutions.

Regional and Geopolitical Factors

Pakistan has accused Afghanistan and India of supporting Baloch separatists, a claim both nations deny. Additionally, the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has emboldened militant groups like the BLA and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), contributing to regional instability.

Tensions between Iran and Pakistan have also influenced the conflict. The porous border has facilitated arms smuggling and militant movement, with both nations occasionally exchanging blame over attacks on security forces.

Pakistan’s approach to counterinsurgency needs a strategic shift. Relying solely on military force has proven ineffective. Strengthening intelligence-sharing mechanisms and implementing community policing strategies could be more successful in reducing violence.

The recent wave of violence in Balochistan underscores the deep-rooted grievances and complex geopolitical dynamics at play. Without a comprehensive strategy that includes political reconciliation, economic development, and respect for human rights, the insurgency is likely to persist, posing a long-term threat to Pakistan’s stability.

Balochistan’s unrest is not merely a security issue; it is a political and economic crisis that requires long-term commitment and genuine reform. The Pakistani government must prioritize dialogue, fair governance, and equitable resource distribution if it hopes to achieve lasting peace in the region.

China’s Role and the Impact on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

China’s multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project runs through Balochistan, making the province a critical battleground. The BLA has frequently targeted Chinese nationals and infrastructure projects, viewing them as symbols of economic exploitation. These attacks have raised security concerns for Beijing, potentially jeopardizing future investments.

Gwadar Port, a key component of CPEC, has become a flashpoint. While it promises economic opportunities, local fishermen and small business owners see it as a project designed to benefit foreign companies and elites rather than the people of Balochistan. Frequent protests against CPEC highlight the deep dissatisfaction among locals.