The ADB report says that by 2070, the forecasted impacts of climate change could threaten not just the future of Asia-Pacific’s economy but the livelihoods of millions who rely on a stable and prosperous environment.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has issued a stark warning about the economic consequences of climate change in the Asia-Pacific region, projecting that the region’s GDP could be reduced by up to 17 per cent by 2070 if climate change is not addressed. In its latest Asia and the Pacific Climate Change Report – 2024, the ADB emphasizes that the combined effects of extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other climate impacts could substantially undermine the region’s growth, with the poorest countries most vulnerable.

The report, which analyses the potential economic impacts of climate change across 49 developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, underscores how rising global temperatures could accelerate existing inequalities. According to the ADB’s findings, climate change will disproportionately affect agricultural productivity, infrastructure, labour markets, and health systems — areas where many of the region’s most vulnerable populations depend heavily.

Economic Losses: 5 to 17 Per Cent

The report’s projections show a wide range of economic impacts based on varying climate scenarios. Under a business-as-usual scenario, where global temperatures rise by more than 3°C by the end of the century, the developing Asia-Pacific economy could lose up to 17 per cent of its GDP by 2070. Even under a more moderate climate trajectory, with a 2°C temperature increase, the region could see losses of up to 5 per cent of GDP.

While the report emphasizes that these figures are estimates and will depend on the pace of climate action, it paints a bleak picture of the region’s future without immediate and substantial mitigation efforts. The ADB’s Chief Economist, Albert Park, noted that the economic toll from climate-related disruptions would compound existing challenges like poverty, unemployment, and income inequality.

Vulnerable Sectors in Focus

The ADB’s analysis highlights several sectors most at risk from climate change:

Agriculture: Agricultural yields are expected to decline due to rising temperatures, droughts, floods, and changing rainfall patterns. Countries with significant agricultural sectors, like India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, are expected to face the worst impacts. The report estimates that agricultural productivity could fall by as much as 20 per cent in some countries.

Infrastructure and Cities: Rising sea levels and extreme weather events threaten the infrastructure of coastal cities such as Manila, Jakarta, and Dhaka, which house millions of people. Damage to roads, bridges, and utilities from flooding and storms is expected to cost billions of dollars. Furthermore, the increased frequency of heatwaves could strain energy systems and public health services.

Health: Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will likely lead to the spread of diseases like malaria and dengue fever, while extreme heat will increase the incidence of heat-related illnesses. These health threats could place immense pressure on already strained healthcare systems in many developing countries.

Labour Markets: Labour productivity will also be affected as the physical and mental toll of climate change increases. Heat stress, for instance, could reduce workers’ efficiency, particularly in construction, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors. In the worst-case scenario, labour losses could reduce economic output by up to 5 per cent by 2070.

Inequalities and the Need for Climate Action

The ADB report stresses that the impact of climate change will exacerbate the inequalities that already exist in the region. The poorest nations — many of which rely heavily on agriculture and low-lying coastal areas — will bear the brunt of these economic losses. These countries often have the fewest resources to adapt to climate change, making them more vulnerable to its effects.

At the same time, the report highlights the vast potential benefits of early climate action. By implementing ambitious emissions reduction strategies, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and enhancing disaster preparedness, countries in the region can not only reduce their future economic losses but also capitalize on new opportunities in the growing green economy. The ADB calls for substantial investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable agricultural practices as part of an effort to create jobs and stimulate economic growth while mitigating climate risks.

Calls for Immediate Action

The ADB report urges governments, businesses, and international organizations to collaborate on scaling up climate financing and policy interventions. With the financial support of developed countries, developing nations can enhance their resilience to climate impacts and accelerate the transition to low-carbon economies.

In addition to policy shifts, the ADB advocates for innovation and the development of new technologies to boost climate resilience, such as early-warning systems for extreme weather events, drought-resistant crops, and green infrastructure projects that can withstand floods and rising sea levels.

“The window of opportunity to avoid catastrophic climate impacts is rapidly closing,” said Park. “If we act now, we can limit the damage and ensure that the Asia-Pacific region continues to thrive, but this requires coordinated global action and significant investment in both adaptation and mitigation.”

Call for Regional Cooperation

The report also emphasizes the importance of regional cooperation in tackling climate change. As one of the world’s fastest-growing regions, Asia and the Pacific must navigate the challenges posed by a changing climate while maintaining economic growth. Regional partnerships, including those with the United Nations and international development agencies, will be crucial in financing and coordinating climate action across borders.

The ADB’s report concludes with a call for urgent and sustained efforts to combat climate change. Without a concerted and coordinated global response, the economic cost of inaction will be devastating, both for the region and for the world.

New ADB research finds the impacts of climate change could reduce gross domestic product in developing Asia and the Pacific by 17 per cent by 2070 under a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario, rising to 41 per cent by 2100.

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