Researchers identified critical strategies, including incentivising afforestation, encouraging dietary shifts, and improving agricultural productivity. The findings offer a roadmap for balancing competing land-use demands while addressing pressing global challenges.

A recent study by the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3), published in Frontiers in Environmental Science, reveals that the planet has sufficient land to address climate change and ensure food security – if policymakers implement bold, transformative strategies. The research, led by CS3 Principal Research Scientist Angelo Gurgel, analysed the competition between agricultural, bioenergy, and natural land under scenarios aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2100.

Using the MIT Integrated Global System Modelling framework, the team evaluated the pressures on land resources in a future where climate stabilisation, food production, and biodiversity preservation coexist. Central to the study was the exploration of land-use policies, which emphasised sustainable agricultural practices, afforestation, and dietary shifts. The findings indicate that Earth’s finite land can meet the dual challenge of food security and climate action, but only if coordinated policies are enacted globally to balance competing demands.

Dual Crises of Land-Use and Climate

The study highlights the growing tension between using land for carbon sequestration and bioenergy production versus food cultivation and ecosystem conservation. As the global population is projected to surpass 9 billion by 2050, agricultural expansion may conflict with the urgent need to reforest and restore degraded landscapes. Without intervention, this competition risks exacerbating both food insecurity and environmental degradation.

The research underscores the importance of prioritising the preservation of natural ecosystems. Gurgel explained: “Efforts to fight climate change and ensure food security must focus on protecting ecosystems, adopting sustainable agricultural practices, reducing food waste, and preventing overconsumption. Without these efforts, even with enough land, we may fail to achieve either goal.”

Strategies for Balance

Researchers identified critical strategies, including incentivising afforestation, encouraging dietary shifts, and improving agricultural productivity. The findings offer a roadmap for balancing competing land-use demands while addressing pressing global challenges. To achieve climate and food goals simultaneously, the study calls for a multi-pronged approach:

1. Afforestation and Reforestation: Increasing forest cover is vital for carbon sequestration. By integrating afforestation with agricultural practices, policymakers can mitigate climate change while enhancing soil health.
2. Dietary Shifts: Reducing meat consumption and increasing plant-based diets could lower the pressure on agricultural land. Livestock farming is resource-intensive and contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions.
3. Agricultural Innovation: Investments in sustainable farming techniques, such as precision agriculture and crop diversification, can boost yields while conserving resources. Improved irrigation and soil management also play a crucial role.
4. Waste Reduction: Approximately one-third of food produced globally is wasted, straining land and resources unnecessarily. Policies targeting food waste reduction could alleviate these pressures while addressing hunger.
5. Bioenergy Optimisation: While bioenergy is essential for decarbonising energy systems, its land requirements must not undermine food production. Integrating bioenergy crops with existing agricultural systems can reduce conflict.

Policy Implications

The study calls for comprehensive policies at local, national, and international levels to manage land-use conflicts effectively. Carbon pricing, subsidies for sustainable practices, and global agreements on land use are some of the measures proposed to drive change.

International cooperation is particularly important, as land-use policies in one region can have cascading effects globally. For instance, deforestation in tropical regions not only reduces biodiversity but also limits global carbon sequestration potential, impacting climate goals worldwide.

Challenges and Opportunities

While the study provides a roadmap for balancing land-use demands, it acknowledges significant challenges. Transitioning to sustainable systems requires substantial investment and coordinated effort across sectors. Additionally, achieving these goals hinges on overcoming resistance from vested interests, such as industrial agriculture and fossil fuel industries.

Despite these challenges, the researchers remain optimistic. Advances in technology and a growing global awareness of climate and food crises provide a unique opportunity for transformative change.

The MIT-led study offers a hopeful yet urgent message: Earth’s land resources are sufficient to tackle climate change and feed a growing population, but time is of the essence. As Gurgel emphasised, achieving this delicate balance requires “immediate and bold action at multiple levels of governance.” The findings highlight the critical role of sustainable practices, policy innovation, and international cooperation in navigating the complex interplay of land use, food security, and climate stabilisation.