The Pacific Ocean is heating up sharply and India’s usual rain helper is fading. This has left the monsoon weaker and more uncertain through the rest of 2026.

India’s main rainy season is running into trouble. The Pacific Ocean is warming much faster than usual, and a helpful pattern in the Indian Ocean that often protects India’s rains is fading away. The result is a weaker monsoon so far and growing worry about the weeks ahead.

This Pacific warming is the “El Niño” – a natural cycle that happens every few years. Warm water builds up in the central and eastern Pacific and shifts wind and rain patterns across the world. This year the warming has been unusually quick and strong. One key temperature reading in the Pacific has already climbed higher than the peak of the big El Niño in 2015-16. Experts say there is a strong chance this event will become one of the strongest in the last 70 years by the end of 2026.

At the same time, a temperature pattern in the Indian Ocean that can bring extra rain to India has weakened. Earlier hopes that this pattern would grow stronger and help the monsoon have faded. The Indian Ocean is now sitting in a neutral state, offering little support against the drying effect coming from the Pacific.

How Strong Has the Pacific Warming Become?

The warming started earlier this year and has picked up speed. By mid-August the temperatures in the key Pacific zone were already very high. American weather scientists say there is more than a 90 per cent chance that this El Niño will stay strong or very strong through the autumn and winter. They also give a 69 per cent chance that the October-to-December period will produce a record-breaking event – stronger than any since 1950.

Most El Niño events build slowly and peak near the end of the year. This one has already reached high levels in August, which is earlier than usual. Weather experts say the combination of such strong Pacific heat and a weak Indian Ocean pattern has rarely been seen at this stage of the monsoon.

Why the Indian Ocean Pattern Matters

The Indian Ocean has its own natural swing in temperatures. When the western side (near Africa) is warmer than the eastern side (near Indonesia), it often helps rain fall over India. This can partly cancel out the dry influence of El Niño. That helpful phase is called a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

This year the helpful phase has not developed. The latest numbers show the difference has dropped back to almost zero. Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department suggest it will stay neutral for the rest of the season. Without this extra help, the drying effect from the Pacific has a clearer path to reduce rain over India.

Rainfall So Far Has Been Short

India’s monsoon has already fallen short. From the start of June to mid-August, the country as a whole received about 12 to 13 per cent less rain than the long-term average. June was especially dry – more than 35 per cent below normal in many places. July improved and came close to average, but the overall gap remains.

Different parts of the country have felt the shortfall differently. The east and northeast have been about 27 per cent short. The south has been around 21 per cent short. The northwest is down about 12 per cent. Central India has done better and is close to normal.

The official forecast from the India Meteorological Department is for the whole season (June to September) to end about 10 per cent below the long-term average. Private weather groups have become more cautious and now see a real chance that the final total could fall even lower. Some talk of a possible drought-level shortfall if the dry trend continues into September.

What This Means for Farms and Daily Life

Nearly half of India’s farmland depends directly on the monsoon rains. When rain is short, summer crops such as rice, pulses, soybeans and oilseeds suffer. Reservoirs fill more slowly, groundwater levels drop, and electricity from hydro power can fall. Dry spells also push temperatures higher, increasing the need for cooling and straining the power grid.

The full effect of a strong El Niño on India often arrives with a delay of several weeks. That means the biggest impact on rainfall may still be ahead as the monsoon begins to withdraw in late September. The current shortfall already shows the season has been weaker than normal. A stronger Pacific influence in the final weeks could widen the gap.

Looking further ahead, a very strong El Niño can also affect winter rains and temperatures into early 2027. Globally it is linked with hotter weather in many places and pressure on food prices. The Indian Meteorological Department has already listed hundreds of districts as vulnerable and the government is pushing steps such as drought-resistant seeds, better water use and local advice for farmers.

What Happens Next

Weather agencies in India and abroad will keep watching the Pacific and Indian Oceans closely. Monthly updates will show whether the Pacific heat keeps rising and whether the Indian Ocean stays neutral. For farmers, the next few weeks are important. The monsoon still has time to deliver more rain before it starts retreating from the northwest around mid-September.

This year’s mix of a fast-building, very strong El Niño and a weak Indian Ocean helper is unusual. Not every El Niño brings drought to India, but the stronger the Pacific warming and the weaker the local ocean support, the higher the risk of less rain. The coming weeks will decide how large the final shortfall becomes and how much pressure it puts on farms, water supplies and prices.