Under both low- and high-emission scenarios, rising temperatures threaten to erode crop and livestock productivity, reduce the capacity of rural labour, and exacerbate poverty in farming communities, ESCAP says.

India’s agriculture is racing toward a climate-induced tipping point. According to the latest United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2025, the country is among five in the region whose agrarian systems are already under “consistently high risk” from rising heat stress.

Under both low- and high-emission scenarios, rising temperatures threaten to erode crop and livestock productivity, reduce the capacity of rural labour, and exacerbate poverty in farming communities, ESCAP says.

Heat Stress Rising – Crops, Livestock and Farmers Under Pressure

ESCAP’s assessment uses the novel Agricultural Heat Stress Score (AHSS), which combines indicators such as the frequency of consecutive hot days (measured by the Warm Spell Duration Index, WSDI), the share of agriculture in GDP, agricultural employment, and cultivated land area.

Analysis shows that as heatwaves become more frequent and severe, staple crops and livestock output are being hit hard. For instance:

• Wheat yields drop significantly when temperatures breach ~35 °C during flowering and grain-filling – a phenomenon witnessed during the unprecedented March 2022 heatwave.
• Rice, maize, and pulses are also affected – either through reduced grain quality, impaired pollination, or heightened moisture stress.
• Livestock such as dairy cattle and buffaloes see reduced feed intake, fertility, and milk yield under persistent heat and humidity; in some regions, milk yields may decline by 10–25 per cent during peak heat periods.

Compounding the challenge, heat stress can severely reduce labour productivity. ESCAP notes that intensive heat can cut a farm worker’s output by as much as 27 per cent.

For millions of smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on timely sowing, transplanting, harvesting, and livestock care, such disruptions threaten not only incomes but food security at national scale.

Structural Risk and a Widening Adaptation–Finance Gap

The AHSS analysis indicates that under current climate trajectories, many of India’s major agricultural zones – from the Indo-Gangetic plains to the Deccan plateau – risk becoming near-permanently exposed to extreme heat by 2100, particularly under high-emission pathways.

Yet, while the threat is clear, the means to adapt and transform agriculture remain underfunded. As pointed out by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), agrifood systems currently absorb around a quarter of all climate-related losses globally, and yet receive less than 8 per cent of climate finance.

In 2025, FAO and partners launched the Food Systems Integrated Programme (FSIP), backed by roughly US$282 million in grants, to support sustainable farming, land restoration, and emissions reduction across agrifood systems in multiple countries.

But this infusion is only a small step: a 2024 analysis by the ClimateShot Investor Coalition (CLIC) and FAO estimates that aligned agrifood transformation would require roughly US$1.1 trillion annually – a vast gulf compared to current commitments.

Without closing this “finance gap,” adaptation plans risk remaining on paper while farmers and crops face the brunt of climate disruption. As FAO puts it, agrifood systems must be at the centre of global climate strategy – not treated as an afterthought.

Time for Urgent Action: From Warnings to Resilience

The convergence of climate science and socioeconomic data suggests that heat stress is no longer a future threat for Indian agriculture – it is unfolding now.

Policymakers, climate funders, and development agencies must urgently reorient support:

• Prioritise climate-resilient agrifood interventions – including heat-tolerant crop varieties, improved irrigation and soil moisture management, livestock cooling systems, and early-warning heat alerts tied to farming calendars.
• Scale up climate finance accessibility – especially for smallholder farmers and rural communities, through public funding, private investment, carbon-credit mechanisms, and targeted subsidies.
• Integrate agrifood systems into national and international climate strategies – recognising agriculture’s dual role as victim and solution in the climate crisis.

Image: UNICEF