India’s southwest monsoon, already delayed multiple times, is now expected to reach Kerala around June 3 or later, amid weak winds and a looming El Niño that threatens below-normal rainfall for 2026.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has once again revised its forecast for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala. Initially predicted to arrive on May 26 – earlier than the normal June 1 date – the monsoon has failed to meet successive deadlines. The latest update indicates it will not make landfall before June 3, with private forecasters like Skymet suggesting a possible arrival on June 4 or 5.
This marks the third adjustment in recent weeks. Scattered showers have already occurred in parts of Kerala and Lakshadweep, but the official declaration requires three simultaneous conditions: sustained rainfall of at least 2.5 mm at 60 per cent of designated stations in Kerala for two consecutive days, westerly winds reaching specified speeds over the Arabian Sea, and adequate cloud cover. Currently, the westerly winds remain too weak, stalling progress, the weatherman has said.
A cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea and another over the Bay of Bengal have further disrupted the organized flow needed for onset. While moisture is present and some pre-monsoon activity is visible, these systems are not yet aligned favourably.
Impact of Weather Systems and Current Conditions
As of June 1, 2026, the monsoon trough remains stalled in its current position. The IMD notes that conditions may improve over the next few days, with potential advancement over parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and southern peninsular India. However, the exact timing remains fluid due to unsettled dynamics.
This delay comes during one of India’s hotter periods, with severe heatwaves gripping northern and central regions, temperatures soaring up to 47.6°C in some areas. Residents in states like Delhi, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra continue to endure intense heat, heightening anticipation for the cooling relief that monsoon rains typically bring.
Farmers, particularly those dependent on rain-fed agriculture, are closely monitoring developments. A delayed onset can shift sowing schedules for kharif crops like rice, pulses, and cotton, potentially compressing the growing season if rains arrive late and withdraw early.
El Niño’s Shadow Over the 2026 Monsoon Season
The delay is compounded by broader climatic concerns. The IMD has downgraded its seasonal forecast, predicting rainfall at just 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), classifying the 2026 monsoon as “below normal.” This is a further cut from the April estimate of 92 per cent.
A strengthening El Niño – characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific – is the primary culprit. El Niño events typically weaken the monsoon by altering atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to suppressed rainfall, especially in central and southern India during the latter half of the season. Experts warn this could result in the lowest rainfall in over a decade, raising risks for agriculture, water reservoirs, and food inflation.
IMD officials have confirmed El Niño’s likely persistence through the monsoon months. While northwest India may see near-normal rains, other regions face deficits. This pattern echoes historical events where El Niño correlated with drought-like conditions and economic strain.
Private meteorologists emphasize that the immediate delay in Kerala is more tied to local systems than El Niño directly, but the larger seasonal outlook remains worrisome. An official onset after June 8 would officially mark the monsoon as “late,” though even a timely arrival now offers limited reassurance given the overall forecast.
Implications for Economy, Agriculture, and Daily Life
India’s economy is heavily tied to the monsoon, which accounts for about 70-80 per cent of annual rainfall and supports agriculture employing nearly half the population. A below-normal season could reduce crop yields, push up prices of essential commodities, and strain power generation reliant on hydroelectric dams.
Water management authorities are already preparing for potential shortages. Reservoir levels in key states may need careful monitoring, with implications for irrigation and drinking water supplies extending into 2027 if deficits accumulate.
For urban dwellers, prolonged heat combined with delayed rains exacerbates discomfort and health risks, including heat strokes and vector-borne diseases once rains eventually arrive unevenly. Meteorologists advise continued precautions against extreme weather.
The IMD says it will continue tracking developments closely. If winds strengthen as anticipated in early June, the monsoon could progress northward rapidly after onset. However, the evolving El Niño adds layers of uncertainty, necessitating adaptive strategies from policymakers, farmers, and industries.
Experts recommend diversified cropping, efficient water use, and insurance mechanisms to buffer against variability. Long-term, investments in climate-resilient agriculture and improved forecasting models will be crucial as such events become more frequent amid global climate change.
Image: Hippopx
