Myanmar’s military government has verified almost 309,000 Rohingya in Bangladesh camps as former Rakhine residents, yet insists repatriation can begin only after security stabilises amid ongoing fighting with the Arakan Army.

Myanmar’s military-backed government has confirmed that nearly 309,000 Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh are former residents of Rakhine State, marking a notable step in the long-stalled process of verifying those eligible for return. In a statement released over the weekend, the foreign ministry said it had verified 308,797 people as former Rakhine residents from a list of 828,824 names submitted by Bangladesh as of 31 July 2026.

The announcement comes nearly nine years after the mass exodus that began in August 2017, when more than 700,000 Rohingya fled a military crackdown in northern Rakhine. Today, the refugee population in Bangladesh exceeds 1.2 million, according to joint Government of Bangladesh–UNHCR figures as of late July 2026. Myanmar has made clear, however, that actual repatriation will not start until security conditions in Rakhine improve.

Verification Numbers and Outstanding Cases

Of the names processed, Myanmar said 426,545 individuals had been verified in total. Among them, 308,797 were confirmed as former residents of Rakhine State. A further 4,241 people on the list were identified as having been involved in what the authorities described as terrorist activities, while the data of 113,507 others could not be verified.

The foreign ministry stressed that Myanmar stands ready to receive those verified as former residents once the security situation stabilises. It framed the issue strictly as a bilateral matter between Naypyitaw and Dhaka, rejecting broader international involvement in the process. Previous bilateral agreements reached in 2017 and 2018, along with pilot projects attempted in later years, produced no large-scale returns.

Myanmar continues to reject the term “Rohingya,” referring to the group instead as Bengalis and maintaining that they are not among the country’s recognised ethnic nationalities. Officials also disputed claims that more than one million people were displaced from Rakhine, stating that roughly 540,000 crossed into Bangladesh after the 2017 violence while more than 200,000 remained in northern Rakhine.

Security Obstacles in Rakhine State

The principal barrier cited by Myanmar is the deteriorating security environment in Rakhine. The military is engaged in intense fighting with the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic Rakhine armed group that has sought greater autonomy for the region. Since launching a major offensive in late 2023, the AA has seized control of the vast majority of Rakhine’s territory – estimates place its control at around 90 per cent of the state, including most townships and the entire border with Bangladesh. Regime forces retain limited footholds, primarily in the state capital Sittwe and parts of Kyaukphyu.

The conflict has displaced additional Rohingya and complicated any prospect of safe returns. Reports indicate that both the military and the Arakan Army have been accused of abuses against Rohingya communities remaining in the state. Bangladesh has sought to facilitate dialogue between Myanmar authorities and the Arakan Army in the hope of creating conditions conducive to voluntary repatriation, but no breakthrough has materialised.

Conditions in the Cox’s Bazar Camps

In Bangladesh, the world’s largest refugee settlement continues to house the overwhelming majority of the Rohingya population. As of 31 July 2026, joint registration figures recorded 1,202,034 Rohingya refugees, including more than 150,000 newer arrivals identified biometrically since 2024. The camps in Cox’s Bazar remain severely overcrowded, with average family sizes of five and significant numbers of larger households.

Living conditions have deteriorated amid chronic funding shortfalls for the humanitarian response. Food rations have been reduced at times, shelter quality has declined, and access to health, education and protection services has come under strain. Many refugees report limited mobility, heightened risks of gender-based violence, and uncertainty about the future. While Bangladesh has consistently maintained that repatriation must be voluntary, safe and dignified, the prolonged limbo has fuelled frustration among both refugees and host communities.

History of Failed Returns and Ongoing Demands

Attempts at organised repatriation have repeatedly collapsed. In 2018 and 2019, preparations for the return of several thousand people were made, including “come-and-see” visits, yet no one ultimately crossed the border. Refugees have insisted on guarantees of citizenship, security, freedom of movement and restoration of property rights – conditions that Myanmar has not offered. Myanmar’s 1982 citizenship law continues to leave the vast majority of Rohingya effectively stateless inside the country.

International attention has fluctuated. The International Court of Justice case alleging genocide remains ongoing, while successive United Nations resolutions have called for accountability and safe returns. Bangladesh has established coordination mechanisms and continues to press for progress at bilateral and multilateral forums, yet the combination of conflict in Rakhine and unresolved questions of status has kept meaningful repatriation out of reach.

Path Ahead Remains Uncertain

Myanmar’s latest verification figures represent the most detailed public accounting of the refugee list to date. By acknowledging nearly 309,000 people as former Rakhine residents, the military government has, at least on paper, accepted a substantial caseload for potential return. Yet the explicit linkage to improved security, at a time when the Arakan Army dominates most of the state, means that any actual movement of people remains distant.

For the more than one million Rohingya living in Bangladesh’s camps, the announcement offers limited immediate relief. Aid agencies continue to warn of funding gaps and the risk of further secondary movements by sea or land. Bangladesh maintains that it cannot absorb the population permanently and that the only durable solution lies in safe, voluntary and sustainable repatriation to Myanmar.

Until the fighting in Rakhine subsides and credible guarantees of rights and safety are provided, the verification of 308,797 names is likely to remain a bureaucratic milestone rather than the start of a genuine homecoming. The crisis, now entering its tenth year and it continues to test the limits of bilateral diplomacy.