Violence across Pakistan has surged sharply in 2025, with militant attacks and counter-terrorism operations intensifying. Fatalities in the first nine months nearly match the total toll recorded in 2024.

Violence in Pakistan surged dramatically during the third quarter of 2025, according to a report by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), with fatalities rising nearly to the levels seen in all of 2024. The increase is driven by militant attacks and intensified counter-terrorism operations, particularly in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan.

In Q3 of 2025 (July-September), Pakistan recorded 901 fatalities and 599 injuries in at least 329 violent incidents involving terrorists, militants, counter-terror operations and related conflict.

When compared with the second quarter, this is an over 46 per cent rise in violence.

2025 Approaches 2024 Toll

Through the first three quarters of 2025, the country suffered 2,414 deaths, almost matching the 2,546 fatalities recorded during the entire year of 2024. With one quarter still remaining in 2025, CRSS warns that this year could become one of the deadliest in Pakistan in over a decade.

Notably, the nature of the violence has shifted. While terror attacks in 2024 claimed the majority of deaths, in 2025 security operations have become far more lethal. In the first nine months of 2024, security forces operations caused 505 deaths (around 33 per cent of the total), but by 2025, operations accounted for 1,265 deaths, more than half the total fatalities.

Geographic Hotspots: KP and Balochistan

Over 96 per cent of the violence in Q3 2025 was concentrated in two provinces bordering Afghanistan:

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP): Nearly 71 per cent of the total fatalities (≈ 638 deaths) and over 67 per cent of the incidents of violence occurred here.

Balochistan: Over 25 per cent of fatalities (~230) and of the incidents were in this province.

Other provinces also saw increases – for example, Sindh recorded a fatality increase of 162 per cent relative to Q2 – but from much lower absolute numbers.

Who is Being Killed – Civilians, Security Forces, Militants

The breakdown of fatalities shows that militants (“outlaws” in CRSS parlance) sustained the largest number of deaths, but civilians and security forces also suffered heavily.

Militants: 516 out of 901 deaths (~57 per cent)

Civilians: ~219 (~24 per cent)

Security Forces: ~166 (~18 per cent)

Interestingly, even though security operations were fewer in number compared to terrorist attacks, the lethality of those operations was high, leading to a comparable number of deaths. Civilians were the most frequently targeted among non-militant victims, suffering the most injuries and being subject to more attacks.

Causes and Underlying Trends

CRSS and other analysts point to several contributing factors:

• An expanded scale of counter-terrorism operations, which are being carried out more aggressively and broadly.
• Increasing militant activity, especially from groups like the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) in KP and Baloch separatist insurgents in Balochistan.
• Spillover effects from regional instability, especially following the withdrawal of US-led forces from Afghanistan in 2021, which Pakistan’s government has linked to increased militant safe havens – though these claims are denied by Taliban authorities.

Human Cost and Civilian Concerns

The rise in violence has taken a heavy toll on civilians. Village councils and civil society have warned that sweeping counter-terrorism operations often risk harming non-combatants. There are also reports of air raids and operations that allegedly killed children. Despite denials or lack of comment from official sources, these incidents fuel tensions and calls for more precise, accountable operations.

With Q4 still ahead, the trend suggests that 2025 will surpass 2024 in terms of fatalities, making it a record year of violence in recent memory. CRSS and others are urging the government to review its counter-terrorism strategies, improve civilian protections, and address the root causes of militancy – such as governance gaps, regional instability, and socio-economic grievances.

The escalating violence in Pakistan presents a complex challenge: balancing the imperative to neutralize militant threats with the equally urgent need to protect civilians and uphold human rights. As security forces intensify operations, the risk of collateral damage rises, as does the potential for local backlash or recruitment into militant ranks. Meanwhile, the provinces of KP and Balochistan remain frontline zones where much of the fighting is concentrated, and where both the security situation and civilian hardship are most acute.

The report suggests that unless Pakistan finds ways to combine more effective targeting, better intelligence, stronger community engagement, and political solutions, the death toll may continue to rise – and with it, the challenges to peace, stability, and governance.