Rising Middle East tensions since early 2026 are driving up global fuel and food prices, pushing millions more in vulnerable nations toward hunger and straining humanitarian aid.
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East since late February 2026 has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with profound consequences for food security in some of the world’s most fragile countries. According to a new World Food Programme (WFP) report, rising fuel prices, disrupted supply chains, and income losses are making basic food staples unaffordable for millions.
WFP projects that an additional 45 million people worldwide could fall into acute food insecurity if oil prices remain elevated around USD 100 per barrel. The report spotlights case studies from Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka, illustrating how interconnected global systems amplify local vulnerabilities.
Spillover Effects of Geopolitical Tensions
The crisis, involving disruptions in key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability, has driven up energy and fertilizer costs while complicating trade. Oil prices have hovered above $100 per barrel since early March, passing through to higher transport and production expenses worldwide.
In import-dependent nations, these pressures compound existing challenges such as conflict, drought, debt, and reduced humanitarian funding. Even as global FAO food price indices show only modest rises so far, fragile economies are experiencing sharp local spikes in fuel and food costs.
Humanitarian operations face a “double squeeze”: surging needs and dramatically higher delivery costs. WFP estimates it may serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 than planned, with potential gaps reaching over 9 million if the conflict persists for six months.
Somalia: Drought, Conflict, and Soaring Costs
Somalia, with a GDP per capita of around USD 630, stands out as one of the hardest hit. Approximately 6.5 million people – roughly one-third of the population – are projected to face severe hunger in 2026, including 2 million in emergency conditions.
The WFP analysis warns of an additional 2.5 million people becoming unable to afford a basic food basket. Nearly 60 per cent of households may struggle with essential needs, up from 47 per cent in 2025. Fuel prices have surged by as much as 150 per cent in some areas, while supply chain disruptions threaten pipelines for nutritious products by Q3 2026.
Pastoralist communities and urban poor are particularly exposed. Higher food prices have already sparked tensions and protests, raising concerns about political stability. Somalia’s heavy reliance on imports for cereals (around 90 per cent) and energy leaves it acutely sensitive to global shocks.
Afghanistan: Trade Disruptions and Border Pressures
In Afghanistan, where GDP per capita hovers near USD 414, the situation is equally dire. Up to 17.4 million people (36 per cent of the assessed population) face severe hunger in 2026, with projections of an additional 2.3 million at risk amid prolonged Middle East disruptions and potential border closures with Pakistan.
The country depends on Pakistan for a significant share of exports, humanitarian supplies, and tax revenue from imports. Supply chain delays have been severe: WFP external transport costs have risen 2.5 to 5 times, with delivery times ballooning from 10 days to as much as 75 days via alternative routes.
Pre-existing vulnerabilities, including economic isolation and reliance on imported fuel and food, mean that price shocks quickly erode purchasing power. Ultra-poor urban populations and marginalized rural groups are newly at risk, expanding the profile of the food-insecure beyond traditional humanitarian caseloads.
Sri Lanka: Remittances, Energy, and Economic Strain
Sri Lanka, with a higher GDP per capita of about USD 4,516, nonetheless faces significant spillover. Around 2.9 million people (13 per cent of the population) already contend with moderate or severe food insecurity. Projections indicate up to 1.3 million more could struggle to meet basic needs.
The island nation relies on the Middle East for a substantial portion of remittances (from the Gulf), energy imports (63 per cent), and fertilizer. Tea exports to the region, a key economic lifeline, have also been affected. These factors constrain fiscal space, limit social support, and drive up costs for households still recovering from prior economic crises.
Broader Global Implications
The Middle East crisis intersects with other drivers of hunger, including climate variability, ongoing conflicts in places like Sudan and Yemen, and macroeconomic pressures. FAO and WFP Hunger Hotspots reports highlight overlapping shocks in 13 countries and territories where acute food insecurity is expected to worsen through late 2026.
Fertilizer shortages threaten upcoming harvests, while higher energy costs could reduce global crop yields. Humanitarian funding gaps exacerbate the problem, as donors grapple with multiple crises. In many contexts, reduced aid coincides with rising operational expenses for air services, logistics, and cash transfers.
Experts warn of risks to political stability, with higher food prices fuelling discontent and demonstrations observed globally in Q2 2026.
Immediate Action; Resilience
The WFP report urges immediate action. Key recommendations include strengthening real-time market monitoring and food security data systems to adjust assistance dynamically. Safeguarding critical humanitarian supply chains – such as logistics clusters, UN depots, and air services – is essential.
WFP says that governments in affected countries should scale adaptive social protection programmes, while the international community reviews targeting frameworks to include economically shocked urban and rural populations. Long-term resilience requires diversified trade partnerships, investment in local agriculture, and sustainable energy solutions.
Without coordinated intervention, the ripple effects of the Middle East crisis could entrench hunger for years, reversing hard-won development gains. As WFP officials emphasize, this is a seminal moment for global supply chains, demanding urgent solidarity to protect the most vulnerable.
