Nearly 60 per cent of Kashmir’s agriculture relies on rainwater for irrigation, but this year the rainfall has been poor and the heat tremendous. With the hottest and driest seasons on record, how are farmers to survive?
By Umar Manzoor Shah
Abdul Hameed Sheikh sowed his crop, working tirelessly for days in his paddy field.
The 52-year-old farmer, from central Kashmir’s Budgam area, religiously irrigated his 3-acre plot to keep the soil well hydrated. He waited for the rain, but days passed and it didn’t come.
What did, though, was scorching heat—temperatures surged like never before.
Every morning, Sheikh would walk his paddy field, noticing how the saplings had begun to turn into dry, dead twigs—slowly and definitively. As days passed, he noticed another worrisome trend. The land had developed cracks, generating dust as he passed by.
“It was at that time when I was sure that the harvest wasn’t going to be as expected. The yearlong hard work is going to get wasted and I am completely helpless in such a scenario. This is utterly worrisome,” Sheikh told IPS.
This farmer was not alone in his worries. People in this farming district in the Himalayan region complained of extreme heat waves never before witnessed in Kashmir’s living memory.
“The temperatures touched even 40 °C here. In previous years, it would not cross even 32 °C,” says Abdul Salaam Malik, a farmer hailing from south Kashmir’s Shopian.
The protracted dry weather has stressed plants, said Professor Raihana Habib Kanth, Chief Scientist at the Faculty of Agriculture at Sheri Kashmir University of Agriculture Science and Technology (SKUAST) in Kashmir. “The prolonged dry weather has caused paddy crop tips to burn and vegetable plant leaves to dry,” she told IPS, noting that 3–5 liters of water are needed to produce 1 kg of rice.
Shifting Pattern in Precipitation
A recent study published in Science Direct, ‘Time series analysis of climate variability and trends in Kashmir Himalaya,’ notes the region is extremely sensitive to “even small perturbations in climate” and the “shifting pattern in precipitation could have serious environmental implications that will greatly influence the food security and ecological sustainability of the region if the same trends persist.”
According to the meteorological office, the region’s capital, Srinagar, recorded a high of 36.2 °C on July 28 this year. This was the hottest July day since July 9, 1999, when the mercury had settled at 37 °C.
A study conducted in the year 2019 revealed that Kashmir’s average annual temperature has increased by 0.8˚C over 37 years (1980-2016), with recent summers breaking temperature records.
As per the government data, on August 17, 2020, the valley experienced its hottest August in 39 years, reaching 35.7˚C. The following year, on July 18, 2021, Srinagar saw its hottest July day in eight years, with temperatures hitting 35˚C.
The summer of 2022 was even hotter, with temperatures surpassing 35˚C in some areas, and March of that year was the hottest in 131 years. In September 2023, Srinagar recorded its hottest September day in 53 years at 34.2˚C.
This warming trend persisted into 2024, marked by an unusually dry and warm winter. January 2024, according to meteorological reports, was among the driest and warmest in the last 43 years. On May 23, Srinagar recorded the highest May temperature in at least a decade.
Urbanisation in Srinagar
The Himalayan region has long been known to warm faster than the global average. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) noted in its first comprehensive report on the region, published in 2019, that even if global warming is limited to 1.5˚C, the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) could see warming of at least 0.3˚C above this threshold.
A study published 2020 in Research Gate, ’21st Century-end Climate Scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India using Ensemble Climate Models,’ predicted that annual temperatures in Kashmir could rise by 4–7˚C by the end of the century, depending on future emissions.
The study noted that urbanisation in Srinagar and other mountain settlements exacerbates heat, broader climatic changes remain the primary driver of rising temperatures.
Jasia Bashir, a research scholar at the University of Kashmir’s Centre of Excellence for Glacial Studies, told Dialogue Earth: “Urban areas feel intensified heat due to dense construction and reduced vegetation, but the entire region, including rural areas, is affected by the general [global] warming trend.”
Four fifths of Kashmir’s population is directly dependent on agriculture. The heat spell has left the farmers, including saffron farmers, wrecked.
Mohammad Ashraf Mir from Kashmir’s Pampore area shares his predicament, highlighting how the less rainfall and surging temperatures are compelling saffron farmers, including himself, to abandon farming forever.
“The irrigation facilities are nowhere. The land has become parched to the core. We have invested much in this crop and what we are getting in return is an insurmountable predicament. The time is coming when we will have to abandon this farming and do something else for a living,” Mir told IPS.
Effective Water Management
According to government records, approximately 60 percent of Kashmir’s agriculture relies on rainwater for irrigation. However, in recent years, the Kashmir Valley has experienced some of the driest seasons on record. The Meteorological Department reports that, over the past three years, the region’s mountain ranges received just 172 mm of snow, a significant drop from the average of 622 mm.
One in a hundred irrigation schemes have been impacted by the dry weather, according to government officials in the Irrigation and Flood Control (I&FC) department. The Jhelum River’s water level has decreased as a result. According to them, the Jhelum River’s overall water capacity has dropped by 30 per cent.
So what of the future?
According to a detailed report prepared by Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) released in 2023, the two biggest issues facing Kashmir in the coming decades will be water stress and biodiversity loss brought on by climate change. It says that the region’s fisheries, forests, animals, species richness and water resources are all seriously threatened by climate change. Twenty per cent of the region’s recognized biodiversity is supported by the numerous wetlands in Jammu and Kashmir, which are negatively impacted.
Among other farmers feeling the heat are the apple growers of Kashmir.
Several apple growers told IPS that the rainfall deficit and heat wave conditions are wreaking havoc on apple production and will cause heavy losses to the people associated with the apple trade.
Fayaz Ahmad Malik, President of the North Kashmir Apple Growers Association, calls the situation “alarming.”
He explains that the ongoing heat wave not only hampers fruit growth but also heightens the risk of pest and insect infestations.
“Dry weather can cause an increase in pest populations, which is a major threat to our apple orchards. The lack of sufficient moisture impacts fruit development and makes the orchards more susceptible to various diseases,” Malik stated.
Agricultural experts stress the importance of timely irrigation and effective water management to counter the negative effects of the dry spell.
“In these conditions, it becomes crucial for growers to manage orchard irrigation. Farmers should prioritize constructing borewells in their orchards to ensure adequate water supply,” they advised.
