As Turkey consolidates its influence in Syria, the balance of power in the Middle East continues to shift. While Iran seeks to regain its foothold and Russia recalibrates its strategy, Turkey’s ambitions in the region are becoming increasingly evident.

Turkey has emerged as the dominant foreign actor in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, significantly diminishing the influence of Iran and its ally, Russia. This shift marks a new chapter in the geopolitical rivalry between Turkey and Iran, which has extended from the South Caucasus to the Levant, according to a report by Radio Free Europe.

For years, Iran and Turkey have vied for supremacy in the region, but the collapse of Assad’s regime has tipped the scales in Ankara’s favour. Turkey-backed rebel factions played a pivotal role in Assad’s downfall, undermining the position of Iran, which had long relied on Syria as a crucial ally.

“The Islamic Republic has harboured deep concerns about Turkish influence in Syria—economic, political, and military—well before Assad’s fall,” Radio Free Europe quotes Behnam Taleblu, an Iran analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD). “With the loss of its sole state ally in the region, Iran’s apprehensions are set to grow exponentially.”

Competing Agendas

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the alliances in Syria have been starkly drawn: Iran and Russia supported Assad’s government, while Turkey aligned with opposition groups seeking his removal. Tehran’s primary interest was maintaining a corridor to supply and support Hezbollah and other proxies in the region. For Moscow, Assad’s regime ensured continued access to its strategic military bases in Syria, including the Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval facility, which are key to projecting Russian power in the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

In contrast, Turkey sought to reshape Syria’s political landscape in line with its regional ambitions. A significant focus for Ankara was curbing the influence of Kurdish groups in north-eastern Syria, particularly the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey views as extensions of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The YPG forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed coalition fighting the remnants of ISIS.

“Turkey’s priorities in Syria have been threefold: neutralizing the YPG/PYD, facilitating the return of Syrian refugees, and preventing further refugee flows into Turkey,” said Daria Isachenko, a Turkey expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The fall of Assad on December 8 addressed the refugee crisis to some extent, but Ankara’s other two objectives remain pressing, Isachenko noted.

Rising Influence in Syria

Syria is now largely under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist organisation with ties to Turkey. This development has further marginalized Iran’s role in the country. Isachenko suggested that Turkey’s growing presence in Syria could bolster its geopolitical position in the Mediterranean, potentially leading to agreements similar to its maritime deal with Libya.

However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Turkey’s ascension as a dominant player in Syria could have repercussions in the South Caucasus, another region where Iran, Russia, and Turkey compete for influence. The Astana talks – a trilateral framework aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict – might no longer hold relevance, but they offered a platform for managing competing interests.

“Coordination and consultation on conflict management between Turkey, Iran, and Russia in the Middle East and the South Caucasus cannot be ruled out,” Isachenko said. She added that Turkey and Iran might still find common ground in opposing Israel, which has increased its activity in Syria since Assad’s ouster.

Iran’s Response

According to the Radio Free Europe report, Iran is unlikely to accept its diminished role in Syria without a fight. Taleblu of FDD predicts that Tehran will deploy the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to rebuild its influence in the country.

“Downtrodden, disposed, and spurned local actors are easy to co-opt, particularly in states where central authority is weak,” Taleblu said, suggesting that Iran could exploit Syria’s fragmented political landscape to reassert its presence.

The Kurdish Dilemma

The status of Kurdish forces in Syria remains precarious in the wake of Assad’s fall. The US has scaled back its support for the Kurdish-led SDF, partly due to pressure from NATO ally Turkey and the withdrawal of most US troops in 2018 and 2019. Ankara’s growing influence has already led to clashes between Turkey-backed rebel groups and Kurdish forces, with the former seizing previously Kurdish-controlled cities like Manbij and Tal Rifaat.

“The remaining 900 US troops in Syria might offer some protection to the Kurds, but the situation is tenuous,” said Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an analyst based in Iraqi Kurdistan and co-author of books on Syrian Kurds.

Van Wilgenburg noted that the new authorities in Damascus, aligned with HTS, are likely to favour relations with Turkey over the Kurds. This could force the SDF to strike a deal with HTS, potentially ending Kurdish autonomy in Syria. HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has expressed a desire to unify all armed groups in Syria under a single banner. However, any Kurdish alignment with HTS would come at the cost of self-rule, Van Wilgenburg warned.

The Radio Free Europe report says that the balance of power in the Middle East continues to shift as Turkey consolidates its influence in Syria. While Iran seeks to regain its foothold and Russia recalibrates its strategy, Turkey’s ambitions in the region are becoming increasingly evident. The interplay of these forces will shape the future of Syria and its neighbours, with wide-ranging implications for regional stability and global geopolitics.